What future for customers, shareholders and creditors of Banca Popolare di Bari, after the bailout decided by the Government amidst many controversies? Meanwhile, a premise: the law decree with immediate effect which allows the Apulian institute to be saved with public money (through the financing of 900 million by Invitalia, a Treasury company that will use its central Mediocredito), will certainly have the effect of safeguarding customers and current account holders. Indeed for them there will be no consequences of the crash, which would otherwise have probably had very critical repercussions on the territory, already tried by various crisis hotbeds, such as that of Ilva or the Xylella virus.
Unsecured creditors (with pre-emption rights) and depositors over €100 are also safe, not only if they are families or SMEs, not to mention that the rescue will make it easier to find a bank interested in taking over assets and liabilities, as happened for Intesa Sanpaolo with Veneto Banca and Popolare Vicenza, however recorded for a symbolic amount. On the other hand, the 2.700 employees of Pop Bari are at risk a little more, whose future will depend on the strategy decided by the bank.
On the other hand, those who are certainly destined to lose out are the shareholders. For them, the picture had already been compromised for some time, in reality, given that a large part of the value of the share has evaporated, going from the all-time high of around 10 euros per share to 2,38 euros just prior to the suspension, according to the latest price of Hi-Mtf market. Each shareholder has shares worth an average of 5.900 euros, equal to 2.500 shares: the total loss would therefore now be 415 million (about 1,6 billion compared to the maximum values).
This will happen because with the capital strengthening carried out by Mediocredito, the shares will be diluted down to zero value: the only possibility for the shareholders, albeit a somewhat remote one given the political tension that this dossier is generating, is to understand whether the Government will provide for a refund, which in other similar cases (but with other executives) has been recognized on 30 %. Furthermore, the legal dispute of the shareholders for the capital increases of 2014 and 2015 is already pending on the shares: 550 million, almost all subscribed by small customers.
Same to you at risk are the bondholders: the bonds placed have a total value of 290 million, of which 220 million assigned to retail customers, therefore to small savers. At the moment it is not yet possible to say with certainty what their fate will be, also because the bailout plan has not been defined in detail and also because in this case it will still be necessary to stick to the opinion of the EU Commission, which always keeps its antennas straight in the possible existence of State aid.
In particular, if Brussels deems that Invitalia's intervention through Mediocredito was carried out "at market conditions", and therefore in a workmanlike manner, as occurred for the German bank NordLb, then there will be no loss. In any case, however, there are no conditions for bail in, which would have also involved senior bondholders and depositors over 100 thousand euros: the procedure concerns large banks subject to resolution, therefore it is not the circumstance of Popolare di Bari.
