Piazza Affari takes a break while waiting for Christine Lagarde's press conference at the end of the ECB directorate. The main index in the middle of the day fell by 0,7% below 17 thousand points. Frankfurt -0,5%, London -0,3% and Madrid -0,2% are also in the red after yesterday's leap. Not just BCE. The markets today will have to deal with data on GDP.
Piazza Affari was already down before the publication of the data on Italy's GDP, announced for 12. In reality, the result was better than the estimates: -4,7% (the worst number since 1995) against a forecast of -5,4%, that is the thrilling figure recorded by France: -5,4% year on year, against the consensus -3,6%. If the American convention were used, it would be -24%. At European level, in the first quarter, GDP in the euro area fell by 3,8%, the worst result ever. and in the EU by 3,5%.
It seems impossible, but according to Istat the unemployment rate in March fell to 8,4% with a drop of 0,9 points compared to February. It is the effect of the decrees to support employment and workers for the defense of work and income. In Germany, new jobless people rose to 373.000 in April, much more than expected. The unemployment rate rises to 5,8%, from 5% in March.
The Btp/Bund spread is moving up around 232 points. The ten-year BTP trades at 1,77% before the ECB which could announce an extension, equal to around 500 billion euros, of the extraordinary purchase plan linked to the pandemic (PEPP).
The idea is taking shape that the Recovery Fund being studied by the EU could provide for the possibility of entering directly into the share capital of companies in the twenty-seven countries of the Union. “One is certainly thinking – anticipates the Corriere della Sera – of interventions in non-financial companies: the automotive supply chain, airlines, infrastructure companies. However, it remains to be decided whether to directly recapitalize the Barack Obama banks in 2009 with the Troubled Asset Relief Program”. Brent oil goes up, +7% to 24,5 dollars, from yesterday's +10%. Norway tonight announced a historic production cut, the first in 18 years.
Tenaris +4%, closes the first quarter with a 7% drop in revenues year on year to 1,76 billion dollars, slightly above expectations. Operating income was eaten up by a $622 million asset write-down that resulted in a $510 million loss for the quarter. Net loss of $660 million. Saipem salt +1,6%. Eni on parity.
The lens of the rating agencies is increasingly directed towards the Bel Paese. S&P assigns most Italian banks a "negative" outlook due to the growing risks associated with the COVID-19 emergency. The agency yesterday published an update note on the Italian banking sector underlining the greater vulnerability of Italian banks compared to European ones for various reasons: a) exposure to SMEs; b) lower capital ratios; c) the high cost / revenue ratio. This could create greater incentives for implementing structural changes in the sector, including further consolidation. But fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the shock will be decisive.
Unicredit leaves 2,6% on the ground. Goldman Sachs raises the target price to 11,2 euros. S&P has cut its outlook to negative, previously it was stable. Mediobanca -2,6%. Intesa Sanpaolo -2%, Banco Bpm -1,4%. Leading title of the day for now is Pirelli +4%. The quarterly data released yesterday by Michelin are negative, but less weighty than the advances previously provided by Pirelli itself.
The most negative voice concerns Diasorin -4,8% which continues to pay for the non-awarding of the order for the coronavirus kit entrusted to the American Abbott. It was held behind closed doors the general meeting -1,6%. The president Gabriele Galateri. Galateri said “sure” that the company will be able to face the future “starting from a strong solvency and liquidity position”.
Unipol +0,31%. The shareholders' meeting approved the distribution of the dividend of 0,16 euro per share (equal to approximately 452 million in total), to be paid on 20 May 2020. In the extraordinary session, the meeting then approved the introduction of multiple voting for shareholders who hold the stake for more than two years. The assembly it also renewed the buyback plan within the maximum spending limit of one hundred million in both Unipol SAI and Unipol group shares.
Atlantia on parity: traffic on managed motorways in Italy fell by 77% last week compared to the same period a year earlier. Italgas: Barclays lowers the target price to 5,3 euros.
