If the coronavirus strikes again with a new wave of infections, in 2020 the Italian GDP could sink by as much as 14%. If, on the other hand, the truce from the virus continues, the collapse will be less severe, but still dramatic: -11,3%. For 2021, on the other hand, a rebound of 7,7% in the baseline scenario and 5,3% in the event of a resurgence of the Covid-19 is expected. These are the forecasts contained in the latest Economic Outlook of theOECD.
The Organization's forecast is by far the worst of those arrived so far: in mid-May Confindustria spoke of a contraction of 9,6% in 2020, essentially aligning with European Commission spring forecast, which for our country indicated a -9,5%. All these data are more pessimistic than either estimate entered by the government in the Def (-8%) and of that calculated by the IMF (-9,1%). Added to these forecasts is that of Prometeia, which for 2020 expects a drop in GDP of 8,5% (the previous estimate was -6,5%), and the more recent one of the Bank of Italy. In the last ones final Thoughts, the governor Ignazio Visco spoke of a -9% in the basic scenario and a -13% in the most pessimistic one.
As for the other items of the public budget, the OECD foresees a deficit 2020 11,2% of GDP in the best of cases and 12,8% in the event of a second wave. In the two scenarios, the debt-to-GDP ratio it would be 158% or 170% respectively.
On the international front, the OECD provides for the GDP of the whole world a contraction of 6% this year in the event of a stable epidemiological situation, while with the rekindling of the coronavirus the collapse would reach 7,6%.
“We have selected the two scenarios that we believe are the most probable – explained the chief economist of the OECD, Laurence Boone – In both cases the shock is unprecedented and will have long-term effects".
The secretary general of the Organization, Angel Gurria, in fact noted that the closures decided by governments to limit infections have put their respective economies in a situation of "induced coma" and that now the post-crisis recovery plans will have to make "some choices that will mark our economies for decades".
