After the flurry of quarterly reports in recent days, it's time for macroeconomic data, which are in chiaroscuro and therefore do not give particular shocks to the stock exchanges: in the middle of the day Piazza Affari is slightly below parity around 22.300 points. The other European price lists go slightly better, also around parity or slightly above, in the middle of the session. The best is London, which earns about 0,2%.
The most encouraging data is that of the Italian GDP, which has further grown by half a percentage point and revised upwards by Istat on an annual basis: according to estimates the figure is +1,8%, the best result for 6 years and an increase almost comparable to the German one, which grew by 0,8% in the third quarter (better than expected) and updated to 2% in the annual forecasts. Also from Germany, the Zew index on investors' economic expectations was released: it rose to 18,7 points from 17,6 points in the previous month of October. However, the figure is lower than the market consensus which estimated an increase of up to 20 points.
As for the Eurozone, the latest flash estimate released today sees euro area GDP rising by just 0,6% in the third quarter, while industrial production fell by 0,6% compared to August. In the EU it fell by 0,5%. In August it had increased by 1,4% and 1,7% respectively, but compared to September 2016 it increased, according to Eurostat, by 3,3% and 3,6%. In Italy, industrial production fell by 1,3% compared to August and increased by 2,4% compared to a year earlier.
Oil is down slightly: Brent below 63 dollars a barrel, Wti around 56,5 dollars a barrel in the middle of the day. Both record decimal losses. Gold is also down, while the euro strengthens against the dollar, rising to 1.17 from 1.16 this morning. The Btp-Bund spread is reduced by a couple of percentage points, falling below 140 basis points and approaching the low of November 7, when it touched 137.5.
Second day of placement for the BTp Italia, after the positive result on Monday: the orders received from small savers amounted to 2,185 billion euros (spread over 33.495 contracts), a marked improvement compared to what was recorded in last May's issue when, on the first day, demand stopped at 1,6 billion euros. Savers still have the whole day available today and, if the Treasury does not decide for an early closure, even the day of November 15th.
Returning to Piazza Affari, the most prominent titles are those of A2a and Campari, with gains of around 4,5% and 2,5% around midday. Yesterday the Lombard utility published good results, with net profit at 319 million euros: +14% compared to 2016. Campari benefits from its entry into the MSCI index. However, the difficult moment continues for Telecom Italia and Leonardo. The industrial company lost more than 20% in Friday's session, another 4,3% on Monday and still today loses 3% in the middle of the session: at this rate it will fall below the threshold of 10 euros per share. The same fate for Telecom Italia after Goldman Sachs' sharp cut in its judgement, immediately on Monday.
The worst title in the middle of the day, however, is that of Saipem, which manages to lose more than 6% in a complicated day also for the other oil companies (Eni -0,77%, Tenaris -o.95%) after leaving the MSCI. First of all, the stock suffers from the drop in oil prices, but it is also probably affected by the news according to which the International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its oil demand growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 due to temperatures moderate and rising prices. Demand growth has been revised down by 0,1 million bpd over the two years: it is expected to reach 97,7 mbd in 2017 and 98,9 mbd in 2018, it said in the monthly report.
Bank stocks also suffer after Monday's good day: Unicredit -1,12% to 16,74 euros, Intesa Sanpaolo -0,7% to 2,788 euros per share, Banco Bpm -1,61% to 2,69 euros, Ubi Banca -1% at 3,9 euros. The worst is Bper which yields 2,6% at 4,158 euros per share. For Carige (-6,64%), at the minimum of the year, today a field day with the board meeting to decide on the launch of the 560 million capital increase.
Among the few quarterly reports today, it is worth mentioning that of Vodafone, which closed the first half of the year positively and raised its targets for the end of the year. In detail, the company recorded a net profit of 1,1 billion euros in the fiscal first half ended in September. Adjusted EBITDA stood at 7,3 billion euro, up 13%. For the full fiscal year, the company's executives now expect 10% growth in EBITDA, against the previous indication of an increase of between 4 and 8%. Free cash flow is indicated at the end of the year as "more than 5 billion euro", against the previous indication of "approximately 5 billion". The group led by Vittorio Colao attributes the improvement in forecasts to a better than expected trend in revenues in Europe and the postponement of the launch of Iliad in Italy. And it flies on the Stock Exchange: in London, where it is listed, Vodafone gains more than 5%, approaching 222 pounds per share, i.e. the highest since mid-August.
On the international front, it should also be noted that S&P's has announced the "partial default" on Venezuela's debt, against the country's inability to repay $200 million. The decision was made on Monday after a 30-day wait on two bond payments. The announcement comes hours after a meeting in Caracas of international creditors who have attempted to renegotiate the country's debt and avoid default. The barely 25-minute meeting ended without an agreement, although the creditors will meet again shortly.
