Timid start of the financial week in Asia, in the absence of ideas arriving on Wall Street or from Europe. Only Tokyo +0,8% opened in positive territory despite the fact that both consumption and the trend of industrial production, both down by 1% in November, have received new negative signals. The Korean Stock Exchange -1,1%, Shanghai -0,8% and Hong Kong were weak at the start. The "purges" of managers also affected the CEO of China Telecom, who is under investigation for "serious violations".
Between Monday and Thursday of last week, WTI-type oil gained almost 10%, this morning it fell back to 37,7 dollars a barrel (-1%), in any case above Brent prices, a phenomenon which can be explained by the end of the US crude export ban, which had lasted since 1973. The recovery, albeit modest, in prices favored the rebound of the financial sector (+3% in the last week) heavily exposed to the energy sector (-20% since the beginning year).
The markets are thus starting to close the financial year without the illusion of having left behind the effects of the crisis which is about to turn ten years old. The consumption trend in the USA on super Saturday (the day before Christmas dedicated to last-minute purchases) remained sluggish, also due to the unusual heat.
In the December 24 session, the Dow Jones closed down 0,3%, the S&P500 down 0,1%, the Nasdaq gained 0,1%.
PIAZZA AFFARI LEADS THE REVIVAL OF THE EURO AREA
The end-of-year balance of the European markets was much better, which benefited from the rise of the dollar (+10% compared to a year ago, traded this morning above 1,09 against the euro) and, above all, from purchases by the Bank Central European Union which allowed the Eurozone to grow more than expected 12 months ago (+1,5%, better than the estimated 1%) and Italy to free itself from the burden of "zero growth" albeit with a modest +0,8 .XNUMX%.
The shock caused by the consequences for savers of the "resolution" of the four banks already commissioned has relegated a largely positive figure to the background: Piazza Affari is preparing to close 2016 at the top of the ranking of stock exchanges in developed countries: +13% (+1% in the three days before Christmas) against +9,40% in Paris and Frankfurt +9,14%. Only Madrid, held back by the electoral appointment, does not participate in the "fiesta" like London, crippled by the crisis of commodity stocks. The Euro Stoxx index increases by +4,4%.
The positive balance of Piazza Affari is enriched by the landing of a registration number of the weight of Poste Italiane, already promoted in the main basket, and by the forthcoming start of the process for the listing of the Railways. But, above all, 2016 will open with the landing of the most prestigious novelty with the greatest international appeal
FERRARI, THE GOLDEN NUMBER HAS ARRIVED
In fact, everything is ready for the debut of the year. In exactly one week, January 4th, Ferrari will enter the Milan Stock Exchange with the tiker Race, already in use on Wall Street. In the first days of 2016 there will be the distribution of Ferrari ordinary shares to FCA shareholders at the rate of one for every 10 held. In addition, they will receive a Ferrari special voting share. Therefore, the latest date on which the purchased FCA common stock will include the right to receive Ferrari shares as part of the separation will be December 30 for transactions on the Milan Stock Exchange (or December 31 for transactions on the NYSE).?
On the eve of the debut, which will precede the expected demerger of the Prancing Horse shares from Fiat Chrysler, Exor and Piero Ferrari signed the shareholders' deed on the shares held: 23,5% the holding company of the Agnelli family, 10% the heir to the Drake to whom 33,4% and 15,4% of the voting rights correspond respectively. The agreement provides for a commitment to consult before the shareholders' meetings and a pre-emption right in the event of the transfer of the shares.
The company is currently capitalized at approximately $8,8 billion and has a 2015 P/E of 27,6 times according to consensus estimates.
The party will not be ruined by the withdrawal of 185 Californias collected in the USA for defects that could cause engine combustion.
Spotlights also on Exor. Pending acquisition of the majority stake in Ferrari, the financial company has launched a 250 million euro senior bond maturing in 2025 with a coupon of 2,875% (issue price of 98,934) with the aim of financing the acquisition of PartnerRe .??
GOLDMAN RECOMMENDS: BUY BTP, SELL BUND
Francesco Garzarelli, strategist at Goldman Sachs, among the recommendations of 2016, includes that of buying BTPs against Bunds: the gap between yields in the euro area is destined to decrease thanks to the Qe purchase plan.
The drop in new supply will contribute to favoring the performance of Treasury securities. In fact, 2016 will be a "lighter" year in terms of public debt issues, which could drop by 30 billion compared to this year, which ended with funding equal to to 410 billion euros, not counting the exchange transactions.
Tomorrow 6 billion euros will be offered in six-month BOTs with settlement on 4 January 2016. The Ministry of the Economy will also make available to investors 1-1,5 billion of the August 2017 Ctz, ninth tranche.
In the medium-long term auction on Wednesday 30 December, on the other hand, between 4,5 and 6 billion euros will be made available to investors in 5- and 10-year CCTEUs and BTPs.
In detail, the fifth tranche of the 5-year 1 November 2020 coupon 0,65% will be offered in a range between 1,75 and 2,25 billion. Same offer range for the ninth reopening of the ten-year anniversary December 1, 2025 2%.
As for the CctEu, the seventh tranche of the security on 15 December 2022 will be auctioned for 1-1,5 billion.
THE AGENDA: MEDIOLANUM BECOMES A BANK, THE RUSSIAN GDP ARRIVES
There is no shortage of sensitive numbers here on New Year's Eve. Tomorrow, Istat will release the data on consumer and business confidence, following the 2015 statistical yearbook. The Bank of Italy will release the statistical bulletin on Thursday.
On the corporate front, Banca Mediolanum will replace Mediolanum on the list on Wednesday 30 December.
In the US tomorrow the Case-Shiller index on the sale of existing homes will be released. Thursday the PMI of Chicago.
The most important data of 30 December will come from Moscow: third quarter GDP, seen down by 4,15: The difficulties of the real economy have not prevented investors in Russia from doing excellent business: only Ukraine, on the brink of default, ends the year with a higher yield. For Goldman Sachs, the ruble (and the Mexican peso) could be the winning bets for 2016: it is difficult, the reasoning is, for oil to go even much lower.
TENARIS UNDER THE LENS OF THE BRAZILIAN CADE
New problems from Brazil for Tenaris, involved in the latest investigations into the Petrobras bribery scandal. The Brazilian authority, the Cade, has launched an administrative trial against 21 companies and 59 people (managers and employees of the companies themselves) to verify if they have created a cartel with the aim of obtaining contracts from the state oil giant.?? According to Cade, the sum of the contracts in which the so-called "business club" allegedly acted amounts to 35 billion reais (over 8 billion euros). The Italian-Argentine industrial group Techint, owned by the Rocca family, is also among the companies under investigation. For the Italian group, this is the second proceeding involving the Sudanese country after the one initiated by the Milan prosecutor's office in the investigation that already involves Saipem.
On Wednesday, Tenaris stock +3,87% benefited from the upward movement of the entire energy sector. On Wall Street, Oil & Gas rose by about 4%, the Eurostoxx index of the sector rose by 3,6%.
Eni closed at +3,41%, reducing the loss since the beginning of the year to -2%. Saipem +3,67%, is down 12% compared to January XNUMXst.
The spotlights are also on utilities: electricity and gas tariffs are expected this morning. On 23 December, Terna, which recently acquired the electricity grid of the railways for 757 million, rose by 2,6%.
BANKS, BAD LOANS DOWN ONLY IN 2017
Hot end of the year for the banking system. While awaiting any (not easy) progress on the negotiations with Brussels for the start-up of one or more bad banks, the ABI has advanced its forecasts on the evolution of the sector over the next two years. The Italian Banking Association estimates that the stock of non-performing loans in the banking system as a whole should reach its peak in 2016 and then begin to decline in 2017. Growth in loans is expected (90 billion more in 2017 than in 2014), which should lead to a growth of the credit stock of 2% in 2016 and 3,1% in 2017. ?
Meanwhile, on Christmas Eve, an agreement was reached between the Monte Paschi Group and the company unions on the rationalization of costs imposed by the European Central Bank, which asked for a reduction in personnel expenses of approximately 200 million euro. Top managers and high professional figures will also contribute to the sacrifices, for whom a reduction in salary of 2,5% per annum is envisaged.
