Piazza Affari leaves behind the storm of the spread. The Ftse Mib index exceeded the peak of 20.000 points yesterday, closing, thanks to a rise of 1,6&, at 20.045, the highest since the beginning of July 2011 at levels it had not seen since the start of the rise in the spread of BTPs compared to German securities. A gap that has recently returned to around 200 points: yesterday the Btp/Bund spread closed at 204 basis points with a yield on the Italian ten-year bond at 3,87%.
This is the most significant result, from an Italian point of view, of a positive day marked by good macro news on the international finance front. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones index rose 0,67%, the S&P 500 0,5% near all-time highs and the Nasdaq 0,76%. The yield on the American 2,9-year bond rose to 1,36% while the euro/dollar exchange rate fell below XNUMX. Among the positive notes, the good quarterly results of Bank of America and Apple. Today it's Goldman Sachs' turn.
Europe was brilliant: London gained 0,6%, Paris +1,3%. But the main push comes from Frankfurt +2%. Tokyo is the exception, slightly down this morning, unlike the other Asian price lists. Various factors contributed to setting the tone for the session, including the Beige Book, the most accurate indicator of the state of health of the US economy.
BEIGE BOOK: THE US RECOVERY GROWS UP
“In nine out of 12 districts, economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace… The outlook is positive for most districts with some reports suggesting a growth rate roughly similar to the current rate, others signaling an acceleration of growth”. Thus the Beige Book, the indicator most used by the Fed for monetary policy decisions, certified that the US recovery is gaining momentum, as had already been anticipated by the Empire Manufacturing index relating to the manufacturing industry of the North East (including New York) jumped in January to 12,5 points from 2 points in December, four times more than expected.
Meanwhile, the World Bank has revised upwards its forecast for the growth of the world economy in 2014, bringing it from +3% (estimate released in June) to +3,2%. What makes the difference compared to six months ago are the improved prospects of the more developed countries. "The economic situation, which strengthened in the second half of 2013, will continue to do so in 2014", finally confirmed the director general of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, underlining however that "the outlook is still subject to significant risks", starting from the specter of deflation, which would be "disastrous for the recovery". In this context, there was certainly no shortage of operational ideas in Piazza Affari.
ALLIANZ WON THE EX FONSAI AWARDS
Allianz +3,17% since the morning had stood out by flying to the top of the Stoxx 50. The reason for the rise was largely linked to Italy. Yesterday, in fact, UnipolSai -0,4% rejected as "unacceptable" Ageas's offer on the Italian assets that the group must sell in compliance with the Antitrus requests but announced that "the offer received from Allianz, although not comparable in terms of structure and perimeter, it has adequate characteristics”. That is, UnpolSai believes it can fulfill the Antitrust requests despite minor assignments.
For Allianz, the operation marks the possibility of a significant leap forward on the Italian market where it will overtake Poste Vita. Generali rose by 0,8%.
FINMECCANICA MISSILE TAKES OFF IN MILAN
First of all, the leap of Finmeccanica +8,2% in the wake of the possible sale of the stake held in the missile manufacturer Mbda should be noted. The hypothesis was highlighted in a report by Intermonte where the words of the top management of Airbus are quoted, intending to strengthen itself in the space sector also with the purchase of the Italian minority stake in the joint venture also owned by Bae. Other industrial stocks were also brilliant, starting with the automotive sector driven by the boom on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Great exploit by Pirelli which gained 5,8%. The Agnelli team is clearly visible: Fiat +2% as well as Cnh Industrial +2%. Exor, the family holding company, rose by 2,6%. StM advances by 1,2%.
BANKS OK THANKS TO THE PUSH OF DRAGHI
The banking sector benefited from the publication of a letter from the ECB dated January 10 in which President Mario Draghi assured that the credit institutions that will be subjected to the stress tests will not be required to adjust the prices of government bonds to the current values market. The news is decidedly positive given the high exposure of Italian institutions on debt securities (about 400 billion in all) Italian institutions to government.
Hence a very positive day, starting with Bpm which closed on the highs of the session up 5,12% to 0,534 euro, returning to the levels of last April when there was talk of the institution's transformation into a joint stock company. The choice of new top management remains on the table of the popular Milanese, a knot that will be resolved between tomorrow and Friday. Banco Popolare shines +4,2%, followed by Ubi +2,9%. The other leading banks also made strong gains: Unicredit +2,6%, Intesa +3,2%, Monte Paschi +0,4%, Mediobanca +3%.
MEDIOBANCA PUSHES TELECOM, INTERMONTE AUTOGRILL
Telecom Italia is up 4,3% on the eve of the Board which could examine a hypothesis of governance reform. A Mediobanca Securities report that judges 2014 to be the year of consolidation favors the increase. According to analysts, "a merger between Wind and 3 Italia" is in fact probable, a deal that the European regulator could welcome positively for the investments that would derive from it. Even on the Brazilian front, the business house believes that there will be developments with the possible sale of Tim Brasil.
Also noteworthy are the strong increases for the "Benetton galaxy", starting with Autogrill +4,2%. The stock benefited from the promotion of Jefferies and Intermonte analysts. The former started hedging with a buy rating and a target price of 7,75 euros, well above current stock market prices. Intermonte raised the target price from 7,4 euros to 7,5 euros, confirming the outperform recommendation. World Duty Free rose by 3,8%, Atlantia +1%.
BEHIND THE BLACKBOARD MEDIASET AND LUXURY
Mediaset has deflated, -3,1%. Difficult moment for Luxury confirmed: Yoox -0,5%, Ferragamo -0,3%, Tod's +0,2%.
