In Europe Brexit, oil and tourism, in Italy the capital increases of the banks. These are the main themes that negatively affect the day of the European markets. Halfway through the session Frankfurt loses 0,7% (despite the best manufacturing PMI for four months in May), Paris 0,8% and London 0,6%. However, the black jersey belongs to Business Square, which falls by 1,35%.
The worst titles on the Ftse Mib are those of credit institutions. The latest factor to destabilize the sector is the flop of the capital increase by Veneto Bank. The market acceptances for the operation (which is worth one billion) are practically nil, despite the issue price of 0,10 euro. Once again, as for the recapitalization of Popolare di Vicenza, the Atlante fund will have to intervene, taking over at least 75% of the capital. The rest could be bought by the current shareholders, thus allowing the creation of a free float sufficient for admission to Piazza Affari.
The specter of a new bankruptcy raises concern for the fate of the Banco Popolare (-6,16%), in view of the increase necessary before the merger with the People of Milan (-4,44%). According to press rumors, Consob's go-ahead for the recapitalization could arrive today and the operation should start on Monday at a price of less than 3 euros.
Another day of decline also for Unicredit (-3,76%). According to Equita Sim, also in this case the capital increase is substantially inevitable and the stock remains "uninvestable until the completion of the operation", possible within the second half of 2016. The broker believes that only a 5 billion increase would have the ability to decisively strengthen capital ratios (common equity tier 1 would rise above 12%) without excessively penalizing the return on tangible assets and earnings per share. A result that would not be obtained either with the hypothesized sale of assets (for example 20% of Finecobank and the stakes in the Polish Pekao and the Turkish Yapi Kredi) or with a move with an industrial and historical impact such as a merger with Mediobanca.
Heavy too Where's Banca (-4,67%), Bper (-4,49%), Ps (-4,01%) And Understanding (-2,34%).
At the European level – pending the words of ECB number one Mario Draghi after tomorrow's meeting – the markets are weighed above all by concerns over the Brexit. Second two Guardian/ICM surveys – one online, the other by telephone - today the majority of British voters would be in favor of the United Kingdom leaving the EU, contrary to what has emerged from the vast majority of surveys carried out so far.
In 'Economic outlook semi-annual published this morning byOECD – which he also underlines the strengthening of the recovery in Italy – reads the eventual farewell of Great Britain to the European Union "risks to translate into renewed turbulence of the financial markets and in the euro area could increase the yield differentials between government bonds and the costs of servicing public debt", one scenario that "would require greater budgetary restrictions".
Brexit would have a negative impact on the country's economy equal to 5% of GDP in the long term, which in the most pessimistic scenario could reach 8%, underlined Catherine Mann, chief economist of the OECD, specifying that the wave long would hit Europe, the US and beyond: "The risk is global".
Today it also contributes to depressing European quotations the decline in crude oil (-1,9% for Brent below 49 dollars a barrel), which weighs on mining stocks, together with the data on the Chinese PMI. The titles of the are also bad , penalized by the warning launched by the USA on possible terrorist attacks on the occasion of the European football championships.
