Balance day today for the markets, committed to ending September and preparing for the last quarter of a largely positive 2017 so far, especially for Piazza Affari, up 18% since the beginning of the year. Even the US stock markets are starting the year-end rush on stretched valuations, judging by the fundamentals: the price/earnings ratio of the S&P500 index is 17,9 times (15,1 the historical average). Meanwhile, the Russell index, that of American SMEs, trades at 26,3 times earnings (against an average of 21,3).
But there are other signs that deserve to be taken into account. On the energy front, in particular. Citigroup has published a report in which it argues that, under the pressure of the recovery of the economies, already in 2018 the world will run out of oil. Meanwhile, Brent, with a jump of 13 dollars in the last three months, reached its highest quotation during the week since July 2015 at 59,40 dollars (57,65 this morning). If global growth consolidates, a Brent price can be estimated close to 70 dollars a barrel in the not too distant future. In short, the era of discounted oil could be winding down, just as the season of zero interest rates is starting at the end.
But the psychological effect of the announcement of the tax reform proposed by Donald Trump must be taken into account: the lower revenues of the US tax authorities, if the project passes, will be 2.000 billion dollars, slightly less than the entire Italian public debt. Yesterday, however, the chief of economic advisers to the White House Gary Cohn (possible successor to the Fed of Janet Yellen) explained that the tax cut is zero cost, because it will be paid for with the additional economic growth that will produce at least 1.500 billion dollars of new come in.
WEAK TOKYO, CHINA GOES ON HOLIDAY
Borsa Meteo reports this morning little moving price lists. In Tokyo, now in full electoral climate, the Nikkei index falls by 0,2%. The Korean Stock Exchange recovers (+0,5%), still under the tension of Kim's threats. Mumbai +0,6%. Chinese stocks are up: Hong Kong +0,3%, CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzen stocks +0,4%. Tomorrow, on the eve of a week's holiday for the anniversary of the revolution, data on the progress of manufacturing activity in the Dragon will be released.
In terms of currencies, the euro trades at 1,1778 against the dollar, recovering from the lows of the week (1,1715). But in the last five sessions the common currency has retreated by 1,5%.
ROKU (NETFLIX) IPO BOOMS +67%
The start of the discussion on the tax reform led the United States Stock Exchange to reach new all-time highs, with the Dow Jones up by 0,2% and the S&P500 up by 0,1%. New record also for the Russell 2000 of small caps (+0,3%).
Great euphoria for the Roku IPO: the former Netflix division made its debut on the technology list with a 67% increase. In evidence Mc Donald's (+2,23%) after the promotion to Buy by Longbow Research. The health sector is also up sharply: Abbott shines (+2,8%) after the device for measuring glucose has passed the FDA test.
OIL, FIFTH WEEK IN THE RALLY. S&P PROMOTES SAIPEM
Oil closes higher for the fifth week in a row. Brent trades at 57,65 dollars a barrel, WTI crude at 51,57 dollars. Saipem rises in Piazza Affari (+0,77%). S&P Global has raised its recommendation from a buy to a strong buy, with a target price of €4,5. Analysts have focused on the recent contracts awarded by the group. Eni +0,14%, Tenaris -0,17%.
BRAKE MILAN. EUROZONE INFLATION TODAY
European stock exchanges in no particular order, in an interlocutory session, devoid of major insights. At 11 the data on inflation in the euro area will be announced.
In the final, Piazza Affari moved away from the highs of the last two years reached on the eve: the Ftse Mib index -0,15% closed at 22.598. Spain was also in the red (-0,39%) where the countdown to the disputed Catalan referendum has now begun. The recovery of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange did not stop: the Dax index, which reached its fourth consecutive day of increases, rose by 0,3%. In the last month, the German Stock Exchange gained 4,7%, against +4% for the EuroStoxx 50 index and +4% for the Italian Stock Exchange.
On the macro front, the economic confidence index in the Eurozone countries stood at 113 points in September, up from 111,9 in August and beyond the expectations of economists (111,8). In Germany, inflation grew weaker than expected, in September consumer prices harmonized with European procedures rose 1,8% yoy, the same change as in August: economists expected +1,9 .XNUMX%.
THE SPREAD DOWNS, THE BTP 10 AT 2,2” AT AUCTION
Positive closure for the Italian bond market, which benefited from the below-expected reading of the preliminary inflation data for Germany and Spain, which could lead the European Central Bank to a more gradual reduction of the monetary stimulus. The 0,48-year German Bund trades at an annual yield of 0,50%, up from 2,187%. The Italian 2,215-year rate fell to 2,25% from XNUMX% at the end of Wednesday's session, after having reached its peak since mid-July at XNUMX% at the start.
At the end of the session, the Btp/Bund spread fell back to 171 basis points from 175 at the previous closing, after touching 180 on Tuesday, the highest level since last July 14th. There were few surprises from the Italian medium/long-term auctions: a slight drop was recorded on the five-year term, to 0,83% from 0,84% in the August auction, while on the ten-year term there was an increase to 2,19%. highest since April, from the previous 2,09%.
TELECOM, GENISH PROMISES: WE WILL MAKE DIGITIM
Field day for Telecom Italia (-0,7%). The Palazzo Chigi Committee called to apply the special rules on "golden power" formalizes its objection for the failure to communicate the de facto control exercised by Vivendi over Telecom Italia. Which however, surprisingly, is aimed at the Italian company, i.e. at Telecom.
Meantime Tim's Board has appointed Amos Genish as Chief Executive Officer, also giving him responsibility for South America. The executive vice president Giuseppe Recchi has been assigned organizational responsibility for the security function, which is responsible, among other things, for overseeing all activities and assets relevant to national security and defence, including within TI Sparkle and Telsy.
Finally, the board approved the creation of the joint venture with Canal+ by a majority. The board, however, "will return to examine the transaction before final approval".
COOL BAG WITH FINCANTIERI
Piazza Affari rejected the Italy – France agreement between Stx and Fincantieri (-5,4%). The agreement, according to what can be read on the website of the Ministry of Economic Development, provides for the study of a possible alliance in the military naval field, which could also involve a share swap between Fincantieri and Naval Group between 5% and 10%. The alliance will involve not only Fincantieri and Naval Group but also others (shareholders, industrial partners, customers, employees), with the strong involvement and support of governments. Among these, as Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni himself said, there will "certainly" be Leonardo (+0,4%).
PIRELLI: 6,5 THE PRICE OF THE IPO. WEDNESDAY IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE
The Pirelli offer placed in the lower part of the 6,5-8,3 euro price range is good but not very good. With the price set at 6,5 euros, Pirelli will be listed, starting from Wednesday 4 October, with a starting capitalization of 6,5 billion euros compared to the 7,4 billion from which it was delisted two years ago. However, it should be noted that the delisting took place before the spin-off of the Industrial division, ie the truck tire business, excluded from the IPO, which will remain 100% owned by the Chinese partner ChemChina.
The shareholders, who had spent 3,2 billion between the takeover bid and the capital increase necessary to allow the company to return to the stock exchange, will recover over four-fifths of the initial expenditure while maintaining control of the new Pirelli listed on the Piazza Affari.
BPER AND BPM SHINE AMONG THE BANKS
Positive performance in Europe for technology (Stoxx 0,7%) and for insurance (Stoxx +0,6%). Generali ends up slightly (+0,13%) after the announcement of the reorganization of assets in Germany. Utilities are down (Stoxx -0,7%): Enel -1,2%, Snam -1%, Terna -0,9%.
The financials hold their positions: Unicredit unchanged, Intesa -0,13%. Banco Bpm gains 0,81%. In the evening, the institute announced that today it had signed an agreement with the Aviva group regarding the repurchase for 252,6 of 50%+1 share of the capital of Avipop Assicurazioni. Tonica Bper +1,65%, Carige +1,04% after the go-ahead from the shareholders' meeting for the capital increase.
VOLA FIERA MILANO, "FREE" BY THE COURT
Fiera Milano snatches upwards with a leap of 16,85% after the court revoked the judicial administration. The stock reached its highest level since December 2015 at 2,49 euros.
Brilliant Autogrill (+2,6%) after the announcement of data for the first eight months of 2017 and updates on the reorganization of activities. It is a project that aims to separate the activities into three companies, one focused on Italy, one on foreign countries, one dedicated to holding services.
The march of Yoox (+1,87%) and Moncler (+1,12%) continues in luxury. Among the small caps, the rally of Landi Renzo continues (+7,89%) which since the presentation of the new strategic plan to 2022 (September 13) which has received positive comments from analysts, gaining around 70%.
