August has overturned the hierarchies. While waiting for the Fed's decisions on rates, Wall Street practically stopped: the S&P 500 index closed the month with a modest fall of 0,2% (after 5 months of rise). After reaching a new all-time high on August 15th, the S&P500 index (-0,3%) slowed down and for the past couple of weeks has been hovering within two points of its highs.
Europe is better (+1,5% the Eurostoxx) but not thanks to Piazza Affari (+0,7%, less than half the increase in Frankfurt +1,5%). The dollar's rise did good for Tokyo (+2%). However, the Oscar of the month goes to Hong Kong (+5%), in the wake of the alliance with Shenzhen which has multiplied exchanges with Chinese price lists.
In short, the numbers indicate modest volatility, which can be misleading. Indeed, hot times are approaching for monetary policy. Bloomberg expects September to live up to its reputation as the hardest month of the year for markets. Various geopolitical factors contribute to justifying this forecast: the TV confrontations between the candidates for the US presidency, the OPEC meeting, the G20 summit.
Tomorrow with the data on American jobs that will give more precise indications on the US interest rate front, a catchphrase that will affect the markets throughout the month. Finally, the trend of European inflation, still at its lowest, complicates life for the ECB as it grapples with the German contestation of low yields. Meanwhile, the report on free trade that will be presented at the next G20 shows that in the last two years the Big 350 protectionist measures have been taken, four times more than in 2008/09.
CHINESE PMI RETURNS POSITIVE (AFTER 22 MONTHS).
Contrast the indications coming from the Asian price lists. Hong Kong rises, Chinese stock exchanges move little. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index gains 0,1%. The Chinese economy is recovering: for the first time since November 2014, the PMI indices (both the official one and the private Caixin) report an increase above 50, which marks the boundary between expansion and contraction. Japan is still suffering: corporate profits fall by more than 10% compared to a year ago, Capex (+3,1%) is lower than expected.
OIL IN DECLINE. US EMPLOYMENT IS GROWING AGAIN
US markets slow down: Dow Jones -0,29%, S&P -0,24%, Nasdaq -0,19%. The slowdown in the price of crude oil caused the decline: US inventories are growing, oil falls by 3%. The energy sector loses 1,4% on Wall Street. In August, however, there was an 11% increase in view of the agreement between OPEC members at the meeting on 27-28 September. At Piazza Affari Eni -1,1%, Tenaris -2,5%, Saipem -0,2%.
Yesterday afternoon the report on new jobs in the US private sector prepared by the Adp research institute was released. In August, 177 new jobs were registered, better than expected. The consensus expected a more pronounced contraction, to 175 new jobs from 179 in July. The dollar reacted reaching the highs of the day against the euro: the euro/dollar cross at 1,1129.
GOLDMAN UNDER FIRE FOR HIRING BARROSO
Banks are on the rise, trusting in the increase in interest rates. The sector index moved to new highs yesterday since early January, rebounding 22% from its June lows. Yesterday's +1,2% was the twelfth increase in thirteen sessions. However, Goldman Sachs suffers (-0,7%). The appointment of Josè Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission from 2004 to 2014 and prime minister of Portugal from 2002 to 2004, as non-executive president of the Bank does not like: the petition to protest the nomination, launched on Change.org by EU employees, has already collected over 76 thousand signatures.
Apple recovers (+0,3%) after the shock of the EU Antitrust fine ordered the company to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes plus interest to the Irish government. Apple is focused on the upcoming launch of the iPhone 7.
Alphabet -0,2%. Google challenges Uber and launches its own ride-sharing service in San Francisco. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Mountain View giant is thinking of a service that will help the inhabitants of the Californian city to share trips with other people and thus save money and pollute less.
ONLY MILAN AND MADRID GO UP. PMI DATA TODAY
Yesterday was a positive day for Piazza Affari, which closed up 0,3%. Madrid also did well (+0,4%), while Paris -0,2% and Frankfurt -0,4%. A positive opening is expected this morning for the lists of the Old Continent.
On the macro front, it should be noted that inflation in the euro area in August, according to the preliminary reading, grew by 0,2% y/y, slightly down on consensus expectations, which expected an increase of 0,3 %.
The PMI data relating to European economies, including Italy, will be released in the morning. The Italian unemployment rate fell by just over 0,1 percentage points compared to June to 11,4%, but the decrease is essentially due to an increase in inactive people (the first after four months) and a decrease in employed persons, therefore a decrease in workforce. The Confindustria-trade unions confrontation is scheduled for today.
Germany's unemployment rate stood at 6,1% in August, on the same level as in July.
Weak BTPs awaiting today's auctions in France and Spain, Madrid will offer investors up to 5,25 billion in medium-term securities. Paris, on the other hand, will provide 8-9 billion in Oat.
COMMERZBANK-DEUTSCHE BANK: THE MERGER PROJECT MAKES THE BANKS FLY
The shock for Europe has once again come from financials. The European stoxx of banks rose by 2%, insurance companies by 1,7%. The two big Germans were the driving force: Deutsche Bank +2,5% and Commerzbank +3,4%. According to Manager Magazin, Deutsche Bank would look into the possibility of a merger between the two institutes. The analysis would still be in the preliminary stage. The CEO of DeutscheBank, John Cryan, has tried to throw water on the fire of speculation by saying that the first bank in the country does not aim to grow, but to reduce its size. But he also added that cross-border mergers are "inevitable".
The effect in Europe was immediate: in Paris Société Générale +1,6%, BNP Paribas +1,4%, Axa +2,9%. In Spain Banco Santander +2,8%.
SUPERSTAR BANKS (+3,2%), SHIELD INSURANCE
The Italian basket of banks gains 3,27%. Unicredit shines (+3%): in August the bank recovered 5%, which adds to the +11% in July, thus partially offsetting the fall in June (-30%), the month of the stress tests. The increase is justified by the advances on the disposal plan that the CEO Jean Pierre Mustier is about to launch within the month. In addition to the sale of Bank Pekao and the disposal of Pioneer (although the listing is not excluded), the group could sell its stake in FinecoBank (+0,8%) and a stake in Mediobanca (+2,2%) collecting 8 billion EUR. Another 8 would come from the capital increase.
Intesa also did very well (+3%). Good earnings for Banca Pop. Emilia (+1,2%), Banca Pop Milano (+1,8%), Ubi Banca (+2%) and Banca Popolare (+2,1%). Monte Paschi did not participate in the party (-0,04%) after the diffusion of the news of the recovery plan of the Sienese bank through the conversion of the bonds into shares at a price with a premium of around 60% on the current value.
Insurance companies are still recovering: Generali +1,3%, UnipolSai +1,9%. Conversely, asset management contrasted: Anima -0,3%, Azimut +1%.
RCS, TODAY THE JUDGMENT OF THE TAR. THUD OF TREVI
Weak luxury: Salvatore Ferragamo, Moncler and Yoox down by more than 1%. The industrial stocks were mixed: StMicroelectronics -1,7%, Leonardo Finmeccanica -1%, Fiat Chrysler -0,2%.
RCS +0,6%: the decision of the Lazio Regional Administrative Court on the request, made by the defeated consortium, to block the deed with which Consob decided not to suspend the winning takeover bid by Cairo Communication (+3,2 ,26%). The losing consortium will present a minority list in view of the meeting on XNUMX September for the renewal of the board.
Thud of Trevi (-2,85%) after the cut of the target price by Kepler Cheuvreux.
