The price of oil is still floating at lows, but the Stock Exchanges, starting with Wall Street, have raised their heads. This morning's positive data from China contributed to the rebound: Beijing's exports grew by 2,9% in December (-4,1% forecast). In the meantime, the yuan exchange rate stabilized at 6,5630 and the stock exchanges. Shanghai and Shenzhen rose by 0,7%. The other Asian markets performed well: Tokyo +2,4%, Hong Kong +2,3%.
The decisive push came from the recovery of Wall Street, at the end of a session characterized by the ups and downs of oil: Dow Jones +0,72%, S&P 500 +0,78%. The recovery is led by the Nasdaq (+1,03%), on the wave of the recovery of biotech, the sector most affected by the declines at the beginning of the year. Apple also performed well (+1,5%), supported by the rating upgrade by Bank of America, and Intel (+1,5%), on the eve of the accounts. The attention of the market is concentrated on the quarterly of JP Morgan to be released tomorrow evening.
The rebound of the European stock markets also succeeded in the second attempt. Milan, which failed to recover on Monday after three consecutive declines last week, finally finished up 1,08%. the Paris Stock Exchange gained 1,6%, Frankfurt +1,6%, Madrid +0,5%. Metroborsa reports today a positive opening for the markets: London +42 points to 5.971, Paris +42 bps to 4.420, Frankfurt +115 to 10.100.
THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON THE OPEC SUMMIT, CRUDE AT 31 DOLLARS
Conditioning the markets is the high volatility of the oil markets, in constant fibrillation. The number of analysts and economists forecasting the medium term is growing an oil price around 20 dollars. At these prices, oil exerts a powerful deflationary push.
Quotations this morning show signs of recovering to 30,8 dollars after a day of sharp declines, in which crude oil left over 4% on the ground, the WTI oil contract slipped below 30 dollars a barrel in February (-17 % since early 2016) for the first time since December 2003.
In addition to the weakness of Chinese demand, prices are kept under pressure by conflicting indications on a possible emergency OPEC meeting requested by "a couple of producers". This was reported by the Financial Times, which quotes a spokesman for the Nigerian oil minister, Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu. But the hypothesis, which had contributed to a recovery in prices, has so far been rejected by the Arab Emirates.
Hence the swing in prices around 30 dollars which culminated in the evening mini-rebound of oil: the S&P 500 energy index closed with a rise of 0,4%: Exxon +2%, Chevron +1,7%. In Piazza Affari Eni recorded a slight increase of 0,2%. Jefferies has decided to raise the recommendation to Hold from Underperform. The English broker advised to sell since last February. In negative ground Tenaris (-0,5%). Saipem advances by 4,2%: despite the denials, the market still believes in the company's involvement in the Nord Stream project.
BTP, TREASURE AT AUCTION IN A BUSY MARKET
Field days for the government debt market. Yesterday the Treasury opened 2016 with the successful outcome of the 12-month BOT auction (7 billion bonds per annum placed at -0,074%, an all-time low), today we continue with the offer of medium/long-term bonds on a market weighed down by sales by central Asian institutions (China in the lead) which sell reserves to defend the currency.
There is also no shortage of competition: Spain, which yesterday placed 9 billion ten-year Bonos, takes the field today with an offer of between 4 and 5 billion Bonos expiring in 2018, 2020, 2023). Germany enters the market with a new 5-year contract of up to 6,75 billion. The Italian Treasury responds with the placement of up to a total of 3 billion BTPs over 7, 15 and XNUMX years.
The first two maturities have been missing in the auction for two months following the cancellation of the mid-December placements. On the gray market yesterday these prices were recorded: Btp 3 , 0,085% (against the previous 0,11%), Btp 5 at 1,042% (0,98% previous ) and Btp 15 (2,081% against 2,14%).
CARIGE BOUNCES, MPS NO. TOWARDS THE WEDDING BPM-BANCO POPOLARE
The target practice of speculation on MontePaschi continues. Prices fluctuated violently, with volumes more than double the average, from decreases of 4% to increases of 3%, to then close the session at 0,928 euro, with a modest increase of 0,27%. The cumulative decrease of these first sessions of 2016 amounts to 28%. 2015 ended with a 35% loss. Consob ordered a ban on short selling yesterday.
On the other hand, Carige's rebound was successful: +7,68%, on volumes equal to almost six times the average of the last month. However, both securities remain below the psychological threshold of 1 euro. Intesa gains 2%. Stfano Barrese has been appointed to the top of the Banca dei Territori. Unicredit still loses ground (-0,98%).
Banco Popolare rose by 2,2%, supported by the promotion of HSBC, which raised the recommendation to Buy from Hold, with a target price of 13,64 euros. The stock was driven by rumors of negotiations in an advanced stage between Banco Popolare and Banca Pop.Milano (+2,4%) for an equal merger.
Asset management recovering: Banca Mediolanum +2,8%, Anima +3,3% and Azimut +2,9%. Generali advances by 1,4%: the future of Mario Greco holds the bench who, according to rumors, is negotiating the conditions to remain at the helm of the group.
FERRAGAMO RAISES ITS HEAD. FLY CUCINELLI
Powerful rebound for luxury stocks, the most targeted in the wake of the Chinese crisis. Ferragamo is leading the race (+6,3%): Citigroup has restarted coverage of the stock with a Buy recommendation, target price 27 euros. From the historic peaks of April 2015, the Florentine maison has left 45% of its value on the ground. The year ended with a gain of 6,5%.
Leap for Brunello Cucinelli (+8,9%) after the publication of the accounts: Kepler Cheuvreux has raised the rating to Buy from Hold, target price at 17,50 euros. Luxottica (+4,3%) and Moncler (+7%) also made a great recovery. Tod's (+3,3%) also performed well on the eve of the shareholders' meeting, Yoox (+4,3%) and Geox (+2%). In Paris Lvmh rose by 3%. This morning in Hong Kong Prada is up 1,98%.
GOOD AUTOMOTIVE, FERRARI STARTS AGAIN
The automotive sector also recovered, supported by forecasts that were less pessimistic than feared for the Chinese market: Volkswagen gained 4,3%, Peugeot +5%, BMW +2,5%. At Piazza Affari Fiat Chrysler rose by 2,8%, Ferrari +3%. Other industrial stocks also performed well, such as StM (+0,3%) and Finmeccanica (+1,1%). Prismian +2,2%. Credit Suisse intervened on the stock, lowering the target price to 22 euros from 23 euros, confirming the Outperform recommendation.
JP MORGAN PUSHES TELECOM. THUD OF A2A
Positive Telecom Italia (+0,3%), supported by JP Morgan, which raised the target price to 1,4 euro with an Outperform recommendation. In Paris, Orange gains 4,1% after confirming that it is in very advanced negotiations for the merger with Bouygues. Note the drastic reduction of A2A (-5,08%). Today the company's binding offer for the creation of an industrial partnership with Lgh expires.
