Much ado about nothing, one has to say, paraphrasing Shakespeare, in the face of the apparent calm of the US markets after the reaction to the signals on rates launched by the Fed. Wall Street, almost flat, has missed the rebound, confirming that operators are less confident about the stability of prices, especially of growth stocks. But futures point to a positive start today both in Europe and overseas, in line with what happened in Asia overnight. The trend will be dictated in the afternoon by the employment data in the United States, which is reducing market movements somewhat all over the world. On average, economists expect a net increase of 440 jobs, excluding agriculture, about double the net change in November.
Meanwhile, the crisis in Kazakhstan is inflaming crude oil prices and depressing Bitcoin: -4%, to $41.400, the lowest price in the last three and a half months. From the mid-November record, the drop is 40%. Almost half of the cryptocurrency mines are installed in the Central Asian country.
BEIJING IS LOOKING FOR A SOLUTION TO THE BRICK CRISIS
In Asia Pacific the overall tone is positive, also due to the effect of the rise in Chinese tech: the Hang Seng Tech index is up 1% and Alibaba gains 5%. The real estate sector is also rebounding: Evergrande +2% on the wave of rumors of tax aid for companies that will shoulder part of the costs of risky companies. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges rose by 0,7%.
The Bose of Tokyo and Seoul, the most sensitive to the performance of the Nasdaq, were weak (-0,13%). Yesterday's session on Wall Street ended with a 0,1% drop in the S&P500 index. Worse is the Dow Jones -0,47%.
THE T-BOND RETURNS 25 POINTS MORE THAN CHRISTMAS
The 1,73-year Treasury Note, stable in recent hours, trades at a yield of 25%, about XNUMX basis points above pre-Christmas levels. The impatience shown by the Federal Reserve on the subject of interest rates, according to Goldman Sachs, will have important effects on the yields of short-term bonds, but will not change much the scenario on longer maturities.
Against a Fed that estimates about three increases in the cost of money by 25 basis points each during the year, Goldman Sachs confirms its forecast for the end of 2022 on the 2-year Treasury Note: 2,08%. The thirty-year bond, today at 2,25%, should reach a yield of XNUMX%.
RAISE POKER FOR OIL
WTI oil started the year with four sessions in strong gains, and this morning the move continues: Texas crude is trading at $80, on the highs of the past seven weeks. The jump in gasoline inventories in the United States and the increase in production on the OPEC+ side have not slowed the rally for three reasons: temperatures have plummeted in North America in recent days, half of Libya's oil is missing and the supply risks shrinking of Kazakhstan, an OPEC+ member country, which when fully operational supplies 1,6 million barrels a day of oil. During the night, as a precaution, mining activity was reduced in the Tangiz maxi-field.
INFLATION SLOWS DOWN, BUT THE EU FOLLOWS US MARKETS
As always, Europe follows the mood of Wall Street. Even if the macro data is not dramatic. In Germany, the growth of inflation slows down: +5,7% in December, from +6% in November (the consensus was +5,6%). The figure, worse than expected, is in any case consistent with what the ECB predicts. Non-harmonised consumer prices accelerate: +5,3% in December from 5,2% in November, when industrial production prices increased by 1,8% in the euro area and by 2% in the EU on a monthly basis. The data on the increase in prices in Italy is expected for today. The Old Continent will not follow the US Central Bank on the money front, but the uncertainties of the Eurozone concern the size and timing of the rate hike by the Fed (a turnaround is possible in March, ahead of May, the most accredited date so far ) according to what was announced in the minutes of the December meeting of the American Central Bank.
SOS ENERGIA, ITALY DIVIDES ON NUCLEAR
In the afternoon, new tensions arose on the energy front linked to the explosion of the Kazakh crisis. Meanwhile in Italy the majority is arguing over nuclear power after the openings in the EU. The 5 Star leader Giuseppe Conte asks the government to "make its voice heard in Europe". Matteo Salvini attacks Draghi: "Tell him which side he is on".
THE BUND NEARS A POSITIVE INTEREST: -0,03%. SPREAD AT 138
In the bond market, the 1,271-year BTP is currently at 138% and the BTP/Bund spread at 0,031 points. The yield on the ten-year Bund is approaching positive values step by step: yesterday -2019%, the highest level since May XNUMX.
BUSINESS CENTER SLIDES BELOW 28 THOUSAND
Final in deep red for all the markets of the Old Continent, even if in slight recovery on the lows. Piazza Affari (-1,8%) slips below 28 thousand (27.655 points).
Negative sign for all: Frankfurt -1,4%; Paris -1,72%; Amsterdam -1,85%. Better London (-0,92%) and Madrid (-0,1%).
CARREFOUR FLYS (+6,3%), LUXURY SUFFERS
The technology sector dropped sharply (-2,5%), reflecting the sharp fall of the Nasdaq. Against the trend in Paris, Carrefour surges (+6,29%) after the relaunch of the Auchan group.
Luxury also fell sharply: Lvmh -4,8%, Essilor Luxottica -4,7%.
On the contrary, the announcements about the car follow each other. Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess announced that the iconic electric microbus of the automaker will be presented on March 9, 2022.
SocGen has announced that the car rental division ALD will acquire the company LeasePlan for 4,9 billion euros, creating a new leader in the sector.
INTESA AND SAIPEM HIGHLIGHTS AT PIAZZA AFFARI
Only two blue chips are moving higher on the Italian stock market. Best of all is Intesa Sanpaolo (+0,6%). In Europe, the banking sector is the only one to close in progress, at the levels of October 2018.
On the wave of the rise in oil, Saipem also rose (+0,5%); Tenaris also made slight progress. Eni -0,8%.
BOUNCES STM: REVENUES GROWING
STMicroelectronics rebounds (+1,57%), which has published some preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2021 (it will communicate the final balance on January 27). Specifically, the group announced that unaudited net revenues for the fourth quarter, ended December 31, are above the range of company guidance provided on October 28, 2021: $3,56 billion (versus a forecast of $3,40 billion). XNUMX).
UNICREDIT HOLDS DOWN, CARIGE FLYES (+4,3%) COURTED BY AGRICOLE
The other blue chips close below parity, including banks. Unicredit goes down (-1,7%), as do Bper (-0,6%) and Bpm (-0,9%). Carige continues to go against the trend (+4,6%) after the offer from Crédit Agricole.
MONCLER SUFFERS, NEW FALL FOR IVECO
Moncler suffers (-4,1%), preceded only by Iveco (-6,82%) as the black jersey in the price list, just above Ferrari (-3,6%) and Exor (-3,7%).
WTI oil up 2,7% to $79,8 a barrel. The weight of the situation is felt in Kazakhstan, one of the major exporters of crude oil on the planet: 2% of world production comes from its fields.
The president of the republic of the Asian state sent the army against the crowd and asked for the military forces of neighboring countries to intervene.
The increase comes in the aftermath of the US oil inventories data. The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude inventories fell by 2,1 million barrels, but there was a significant increase in gasoline inventories at the same time.
Godman Sachs' head of commodities strategies, James Currie, took to Bloomberg TV to let viewers know that he is "extremely optimistic" about upside chances for commodities. There is a good chance, according to the expert, of a tight oil market situation in the next three to six months.
Down the price of gas in Europe: -2%, to 94 euros per megawatt hour. Gas will cost 54% more in Europe this winter than in 2019, predicts Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The strongest increases are expected in Great Britain and Italy. Gold takes a step back, at 1.794 dollars an ounce, a sign that the market, at the moment, is looking more at rate hikes than at the long-term threat of inflation.
