Sell, sell and sell again, taking advantage of every rebound, however modest it may be. This is the advice coming from Barclays analysts, convinced that the combination of increasingly weaker oil, geopolitical risks and a market made more fragile by the losses in price lists, is enough to frustrate any hint of recovery in the coming months.
And so the Bull struggles to raise his head, crushed by the ghosts of fear. He happens to be in Milan, held back by the downpour of sales on the banks most exposed to the problem of non-performing loans. It happens on Wall Street, once again held back in the afternoon by the fall in oil prices.
The script was repeated this morning in Asia, on the wave of the drop in the price of oil, which fell again below 28 dollars: a report by the international energy agency warned against the risk that assets on the markets Iranian crude is able to nullify the benefits of cutting shale oil production.
Thus Tokyo (-3,2%) and Hong Kong (-3,8%) suffer. Chinese lists were also weak in the middle of the session: Shanghai -1,2%, Shenzhen -1,4%.
WALL STREET ON THE ROLLER COASTER. PARITY CLOSURE
The American stock market closed a session with high volatility which saw the S&P500 index sink to the minimum levels reached on 25 August last year at 1864 points: at the end of trading, the Dow Jones +0,17%. S&P 500 +0,01%, Nasdaq -0,26%.
The oil sector dropped 2,17%. The Bigs, such as (Exxon -1,52%) and Chevron (-2,58%) are down. But the malaise of the oil market has now infected a significant part of the price list. For example, Bank of America fell back (-2,7%), despite better-than-expected results. But the bank's quarterly report expresses concern about the consequences of weak oil on the economy. Consumption also pays a high price: Tiffany, after the negative data on Christmas sales, has lost 6%.
SMILES ONLY NETFLIX +8%. EUROPE TOWARDS OPENING IN RED
The positive note was provided by Netflix (+8%) after the quarterly: international subscribers have risen to over 4 million (against the 3,5 million expected). Europe also seems destined for a weak opening, marked by the losses of Asia and the lack of sprint from Wall Street. Futures on the indices of London (-110), Frankfurt (-221) and Paris (-96) are down sharply.
MPS -45% IN JANUARY. AND THE SHORT POSITIONS GROW
Milan, meanwhile, is trying to recover from the shock of the losses in the banking sector. Yesterday, after three days of decline, Piazza Affari reacted with a 1% rise (FtseMib index), which however was only half of the rises of the other main European stock exchanges: Paris rose by 1,9% , Frankfurt +1,4%.
In fact, the pressure on a large part of the Italian banking system continued. Once again, Monte Paschi was under fire (-14% after several suspensions due to excessive discounts, and Carige -11%). The Consob ban on short selling the securities of the Banca di Siena will continue today as well, which has lost 2016% since the beginning of 45. The US hedge fund Aristeia Capital has opened a Short position (ie earns if the price falls) equal to 0,70% of the capital of MPS.
UNICREDIT IN THE SIGHT, STRONG UNDERTAKING AND MEDIOBANCA
However, the crisis was not limited to the two institutions considered to be at the highest risk, but affected most of the institutions covered by the ECB's requests for Non-Performing Loans. The note from the Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, was of little use, who tried to throw water on the fire by clarifying that the initiative launched by the ECB on non-performing loans does not aim to highlight any specific concern for Italian institutions.
The rain of sales invested Unicredit (-3,4%). The institute specified in a note that "compared to what was communicated on the occasion of the last quarterly report (as at 30 September 2015) there is no new element". At group level – it is recalled – “gross non-performing loans amounted to 50,6 billion euro, down by around 3% compared to December 2014 and the coverage ratio was 61,4% , among the highest in Italy. Consequently, non-performing loans net of reserves amounted to 19,5 billion, down compared to December 2014”.
Banco Popolare also fell sharply (-6,3%), one of the banks most exposed to non-performing loans. Other banks are doing better, despite being the subject of the Frankfurt communications: Banca Popolare di Milano +0,4%, Banca Popolare dell'Emilia -0,4%. It's even better for the institutes ignored by the ECB's investigation. In fact, no requests were sent to Intesa, up 1%, and to Mediobanca, up 2%. Credem also rose (+0,66%).
In contrast BancaIfis (+4,6%), after announcing the results of the 2015 financial statements, closed with a net profit of 162 million euro, up by 69%.
BAD LOANS GROW, BTPs HOLD ON
Meanwhile, the European Commission has asked the Italian government for further information on the new bad bank proposal, a tool designed to help national banks get rid of over 200 billion non-performing loans. But in the meantime he announced that in November non-performing loans rose again, with gross ones at 201 billion euro from 199 in October (equal to 10,4% of loans, a percentage unchanged from October) and net ones at 88,8 from 87,2 billion (4,89% of loans, from 4,85% in October).
Against this backdrop, expectations are rising for tomorrow's ECB summit. Once again, while the risk of a dramatic fracture at the top levels of the EU is looming, the markets are relying on the words of Mario Draghi. Meanwhile, thanks to the ECB, the government bond market is not yet affected by the crisis. The ten-year BTP rate remained stable at around 1,57%. Meanwhile, the spread on the 10-year Bund narrows to 108 basis points from 109. The tension on Spanish bonds also eases despite the political uncertainty and the amount of bonds offered during the week: the Spanish 1,71-year bond falls to 1,75% from 123. 128%, the spread on the Bund to XNUMX basis points from XNUMX.
TELECOM, VIVENDI EXCLUDES AGREEMENTS WITH ORANGE
The increase in Telecom Italia (+4,7%) contributed to supporting the Milanese price list. After the news of the new purchases by Vivendi, which rose to 21,4% of the former incumbent of the telecommunications companies, the market is betting on possible M&A operations. During a hearing in the Senate, the CEO of the group Arnaud De Puyfontaine said that the Parisian group is not the "access point" for Orange in Telecom Italia and that there is no joint action with Xavier Niel.
OIL & UTILITY SUPPORT THE INDEX
Piazza Affari closed its doors yesterday before the bearish reversal of crude oil. Hence the good performance of oil companies which supported the Ftse Mib index: Eni +1,3%, promoted to Buy by the Canadian broker Canaccord. Tenaris + 3,1%, Saipem unchanged. Utilities also performed well: Enel gained 1,1%, Terna +3%.
SNAM AND MONCLER UNIQUE BLUE CHIPS WITH THE PLUS SIGN IN JANUARY
Snam deserves a special mention: +1,8% to 4,9780 euros, one step away from the recent historical record of 5,10 euros (13 January), the only blue chip together with Moncler, +1,62% yesterday record a gain from January 2 to today. Among the positive notes of the day also A1,1A (+1,9%), Atlantia (+2,9%) and Autogrill (+XNUMX%).
In luxury, Yoox (+4,3%) and Luxottica (+2,37%) rebounded. Ferragamo falls 1%, downgraded from UBS to Sell.
BLOW OF THE ACCELERATOR FOR FERRARI
Rebound after the sharp declines Fiat Chrysler (+2,5%). The real sprint is produced by Ferrari (+8,5%) which, after four consecutive declines (-15% since its quotation in Milan) returns to 38,80 euros, achieving the highest daily increase since it was listed on the Stock Exchange . BNP Paribas reiterated the Underweight recommendation, lowering the target price to 41 dollars (about 37,70 euros). Among the other industrialists, Finmeccanica (+2,2%) and StM (+4%).
