OCTOBER RECORD IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE THANKS TO THE FLIGHT OF THE BANKS
GREAT APPEAL OF POPULAR PEOPLE. HEDGES STUDY MPS
I banking they go on strike, for the first time since time immemorial. In Europe, on the eve of the ECB exams that are about to begin, fines and punishments rain down, from Deutsche Bank to Ubs, for the Libor scandal. Yesterday morning Rbs, already saved by the Queen's Treasury, announces a bad bank in which to merge the skeletons in the closet: 38 billion pounds…. Yet, despite these premises, the banks shone in October in Piazza Affari. On the contrary, given the weight of credit in the list, their performance made a decisive contribution to canceling the delay that the Ftse Mib index accused of compared to the other markets.
The Milan Stock Exchange has risen above 18.800, on the levels of July 2011. If you take a look at how the map has changed since the summer of two years ago, the rise of luxury and that of asset management stands out. luxury, judging by the results of the French giants, seems to have entered a reflective phase, waiting for US consumers to replace Asian consumers as sales drivers. For what concern managed, the uncertainty stems from the boom in performance over the last 27 months: Azimut +187%, Mediolanum +85%. Banca Generali +95%. But, if the tax shelter is dusted off, the sector will have a new reason to appeal.
For the moment, however, we need to celebrate the recovery of the world of credit. The numbers speak for themselves: in the top ten of the main basket, the Ftse Mib index, there are seven banks. The Populars lead the march: Ubi Banca , with stellar +36,5%, Bper +33,6%, B. Popolare +33,3% , B. Pop. Milan, despite the conflicts over governance and the change at the top, +18,045%. Among the top ten also Mediobanca +30,465%, thanks also to good results, Mediolanum +19,3%, Intesa Sanpaolo +20,06%. Unicredit does not figure in the standings which also rises by a considerable 17,6%, well above the FtseMib basket which also scores the best performance of 2013 in October: +10,5%, the fourth consecutive increase: July +8,2 .1,2%, August +4,5%, September +13,7%. Even Banca Mps +XNUMX%, thanks to the final exploit, closes above the average.
To break the monopoly of the banks are Finmeccanica +25%, rewarded by the acceleration of the disposal and debt reduction plan. It is confirmed Mediaset +22%, the best blue chip since early 2013 with a 137% gain. The list is closed by Fondiaria Sai +20%, in great fashion during the march towards the birth of the UnipolSai pole, the second Italian insurance company after Generali.
The October of miracles can be explained in at least two ways: the parallel decline in yields on BTPs and the spread; the interest of international operators in the system, awaiting restructuring operations (especially Mps and Popolari) which, speculation thinks, will certainly be necessary to pass the European exams. The October boom, for banks and others, is in fact a close relative of the migration of capital towards the equity of the Old Continent stimulated by contingent factors (the tensions on the US budget) and by the postponement of tapering in the United States. For these reasons, as well as the rebound of the dollar after the highs reached at the beginning of the week, many predict that the trend is destined to correct in the coming weeks.
The black jersey of the month goes to StM -16%, penalized by the quarterly below expectations. Tod's surprisingly slips -11%, penalized by indications on the trend of revenues below expectations. But the minus sign also hits Salvatore Ferragamo -1,02% and, despite the excellent quarterly performance, Luxottica +1,73% did not shine, which did not benefit from the weak dollar. Negative month also for the industry: Cnh -8,12% at its debut, Fiat - 1,7%, Prysmian -0,5% below too. The exceptions are Pirelli +7,8% boosted by the news of the dissolution of the shareholders' agreement and Finmeccanica +22,73% rewarded by the acceleration of the disposal and debt reduction plan.
