It starts slowly, as expected. Impregilo +0,05%, at 3,994 euros, remains on the previous day's values, close to the takeover bid price, a clear sign that the market does not expect any twists and turns from the voluntary public offer (theoretical maximum amount of 1,130 billion) which kicked off this morning.
Yet one question remains: Will Beniamino Gavio accept the offer of the "enemy" Pietro Salini? This is not a secondary issue, given that the information prospectus of the takeover bid informs that if Igli does not adhere to the public offer, the merger between the Roman builder and the general contractor will not take place. Hence the wait for the decisions of the Piedmontese group: Gavio can opt for the rich dividend of around 1,5 euros per share intended for shareholders who do not adhere to the offer. Or he can accept the price of 4 euros envisaged by the takeover bid.
For now, no signals are coming from the Gavio da Tortona headquarters: first, the 170 pages of the tender offer prospectus need to be analyzed down to the last detail. It is probable that the decision will be communicated only close to the expiry date, set for the 12th April.
In summary: if Gavio adheres to the takeover bid leaves the game with a discrete financial surplus given that the group has 80 million Impregilo shares in charge at 3,65 euros and 40 million at 3 euros net. The adventure could therefore end with a surplus of almost 70 million.
Otherwise Gavio can decide to postpone and to collect the rich dividend of almost 1,5 euros per share promised by Impregilo after the sale of Ecorodovias, maintaining the 29% stake in Impregilo.
Finally, it might as well launch the counter-takeover bid, hypotheses in which the market does not believe, for several reasons. First, because Gavio gave up on it already in the summer, considering the company too expensive at these prices (also on the advice of Mediobanca). Secondly, because after the sale of Ecorodovias, Impregilo's appeal in Gavio's eyes has undoubtedly diminished. At this point, the bookmakers consider Gavio's participation in the takeover bid as probable.
But what will Pietro Salini do on the contrary? In the event Gavio does not adhere to the tender offer "the share would suffer a serious reduction in liquidity - said Salini himself in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore - and the conditions could also arise for suspension of the listing or delisting". The two companies, therefore, should proceed separately but under a single roof, strong in a sustainable financial situation. Better for Salini, however, the success of the takeover bid, antechamber of the merger "which is our goal" preceded, by June, by the repayment of the loan received from Banca Imi and Natixis to finance the takeover bid (1,4 billion).
What prospects will the new national champion have? The limit, at least for now, is the concentration of the business only in major works, while the current trend is to also incorporate the element of concessions to make profitability more stable (Astaldi, in accordance with this line, has just been awarded a lot of the Turkish highway). Management On the other hand, the merger will give Salini, which today operates in many areas at risk such as Africa and Eastern Europe, the possibility of having access to the markets of the Americas and Australia with a range of activities covers more than fifty countries.
