Waiting for the start of the European QEscheduled for Thursday, March 5, markets are looking at the Fed's next moves, reports the strengthening of the dollar traded this morning to 1,1213 against the euro. Attention will therefore be concentrated on the revision of US GDP data for the second quarter. An increase of 2,1% is expected (against the preliminary 2,6%). A higher result would raise the possibility of a rate hike in the summer, which St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he was in favor of. In the meantime, the Tokyo Stock Exchange +0,1% is about to end the week at the highest level since the year XNUMX. Hong Kong also rose, the rest of the Asia Pacific markets were weak.
FEBRUARY, OIL RISES. IT HASN'T HAPPENED SINCE MAY
Weak US lists: Dow Jones -0,06%, S&P 500 -0,15%. The Nasdaq rose 0,42% on Apple's 1,2% boost.
Durable goods orders rose 2,8% in January, better than the consensus firm at +1,6%, while inflation fell 0,7% month-on-month. Wages rose, but weekly jobless claims climbed back above the 300 mark.
Oil recovers after the sharp tumble (-5%) on the eve: il Brent starts to close above $61 a barrel the month of February, the first with a positive sign for crude oil after seven consecutive declines.
EUROPE STILL BULL, TODAY THE GERMAN VOTE ON GREECE
European Stock Exchanges, on the rise, further improve their record levels.
In Milan the FtseMib rose by1% thanks also to the boost from the consumer index which rose to 110,9 in February from 104,4 in January, the highest value since June 2002. The Paris Stock Exchange rose by 0,5%, Frankfurt +1%, Madrid +0,7%. London +0,21%-
Overall Stoxx 600 index at seven-year high.
Today the German Parliament will have to pronounce itself on the agreement with Athens which allows the extension of the aid plan granted by the EU to Athens. According to the latest polls, German deputies are ready to say yes, despite the perplexities of the finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble. After the agreement with the Eurogroup, 600 million deposits returned to Greek banks in three days
BTPs RUN, NEGATIVE YIELDS FOR BUNDS UP TO 7 YEARS
Debt markets are moving forward in anticipation of the Quantitative Easing. The rush to purchases therefore intensifies, also due to the uncertainty on the technical methods that the ECB will choose to launch the plan. Basically, there are those who bet that in the running-in phase there will be a lack of supply of "paper" from the markets with repercussions on prices.
This also explains the race to the bottom, faster than expected, of yields: the ten-year German bund has fallen below the 0,3% barrier: the Berlin issue rate is now in negative territory up to seven years.
The securities of the "periphery" are doing even better: the 2-year Portugal is under 1,27%, Spain trades at 100%, spread below XNUMX points. The still goes down too yield of BTPs: the 1,34-year rate fell to XNUMX% after the auction and lo spread with the Bund now reduced to only 104 points.
TOWERS PUSH TELECOM. RAI WAY TAKEOVER OFFER, THE MARKET BELIEVES IT
Great day for Telecom Italia +2,9%, which reached new highs since May 2011 at 1,0640 euro, the best stock in the European TLC sector (the Stoxx index -0,4%), weighed down by the accounts of Deutsche Telekom -1,8% and Telefonica - 0,5%.
While awaiting news on the Brazil and Metroweb front, the stock benefits from the sharp contraction in interest rates, which has positive effects on the profitability of the company struggling with a debt of around 26,6 billion euro. But, above all, the tower effect helps. The CEO of Banca Imi, Gaetano Micciché, confirmed yesterday that the Telecom transmission tower company, Inwit, should go public within the first half of 2015.
Meanwhile, the stocks involved in the public purchase and exchange offer are down, but not too much Rai Way -2,8% after the Government said it does not intend to remove the constraint which obliges Rai to hold 51% of the company. A stance that becomes an insurmountable obstacle for the expansion projects of eiTowers, which however rose by 0,5% yesterday confirming that the market is convinced that the game is not over. The parent company Mediaset meanwhile marks an increase of 0,2%.
MPS, THE INCREASE WILL BE DONE BETWEEN MAY AND JUNE
The rally in government bonds acted as a propellant for the banking sector, again the main engine of the rise in Piazza Affari.
The Bigs led the race, Understanding +2,3%, in front of Unicredit and Mediobanca, both +1,9%. The Popular follow: Bper +2,4%, Bpm +2,3%, Ubi + 0,50%.
Banco Popolare advanced by 1,2%, after announcing compliance with the minimum capital ratios required by the ECB. In fact, as of last December 31, the common equity tier 1 ratio was 11,9% and the total capital ratio 14,6%.?
The rise of Monte Paschi resumes +2,1%. During a hearing in the Senate, CEO Fabrizio Viola said that “the 3 billion euro capital increase should take place between the end of May and June.
After the excellent data on collection in the sector, asset management companies were also up sharply: Azimut +1,9%, Mediolanum +2,8%, Anima +4,8%.
AUTOGRILL AT THE TOP. SORIN +34% WEDDING WITH CYBERONICS
Among the blue chips the best was Autogrill +3,9%. Also up sharply Fiat Chrysler +2,9%.
But the day was dominated by Sorin's exploits +34%, a leap that brings the quotation back to its highest level since 2004 at 2,950 euros. Since January the increase is 53%. The Milanese biomedical company, one of the world leaders in the field of medical devices for the treatment of cardiovascular pathologies (stents, heart valves, etc.) announced this morning that it will merge with Cyberonics, a company active in the same area based in Houston and listed on the Nasdaq.
The all-paper operation will lead to the creation of a new group with a capitalization of 2,7 billion dollars, listed on the Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange. The headquarters of the new company, in which members of the US group (mostly investment funds) will have 54%, will be London. Mittel, up 15,4% yesterday, and Equinox will be the strongest shareholders, with 11,5%.
ENEL SETTLES, SARAS RETURNS TO THE RACE
Settlement session for Enel -0,44% to 4,03 euros after the placement by the Treasury of 5,74% of the capital, at a price of no less than 4 euros. Oil stocks moved little. Eni +0,3%. S&P Capital IQ has raised the rating on the stock from strong sell to sell and the target price from 12 to 14 euros. Saipem +0,1%. Tenaris salt +1,4%. Leap by Saras +3,5%: Barclays raised its target price from 0,7 to 1 euro, confirming its underweight rating.
LUXURY TWO SPEED
The luxury sector was positive with Moncler +1,3% and Ferragamo +1,3%.
The exception is Yoox which loses 2,1% after the publication of the results for the fourth quarter of 2014 which showed a contraction in profitability. ??Ebitda rose by 13% year on year to 48,8 million euros, but with an EBITDA margin of 9,3%, down from 9,5%. ???She is today's worst blue chip. Equita reduced the target price from 18 to 18,2 euros, confirming the Hold recommendation. Kepler – Cheuvreux instead decided to cut the recommendation to Reduce da Hold, keeping the target price of 17 euros unchanged.?
SALINI MAKES A BOOM, ZUCCHI WAITS FOR BUFFON'S MONEY
On shields Salini Impregilo (+10,93%) which celebrated the preliminary results for 2014 (revenues +11% to 4,2 billion, better than expected with a price on the highest level since 14 June at 4,084 euros. ?Kepler – Cheuvreux confirmed the Buy, raising the target price to 4,30 euro from 3,80 euro. Exane BNP Paribas reiterated the Outperform recommendation, raising the target price to 4,70 euro from 4 euro. Zucchi lost 4,04% at 0,0546 euros, awaiting the transfer of 5 million euros (i.e. the amount missing to complete the capital increase approved in 2013) by Gianluigi Buffon, the largest shareholder of the group.
