BTP AUCTION, THE TREASURY EXPLOITS THE MERKEL EFFECT. BUSINESS CENTRE, PUBLISHING (AND IREN) ARE BOOMING
This morning the Treasury is trying to exploit the "Merkel effect". In fact, the third offer of government bonds of the week dedicated to BTPs takes place: 6,5 billion in all, up to 2,5 billion in five-year terms, the rest in BTP 10, the debut of the new benchmark expiring on 22 November.
Yesterday afternoon there was a marked improvement in government bonds, with the yield on the BTP falling to 5,72% and the spread falling to 436 (-10 basis points immediately after the words of the German Chancellor ("the Italy can do it alone" and "the reforms will bring down the spread") in front of Mario Monti.
In the morning, the Italian Treasury had successfully placed 9 billion six-month BOTs: the yield dropped to 1,585% (the lowest since March), from 2,454% in the previous auction at the end of July. Encouraging numbers, on the eve of a crucial week. But tensions remain high: in this regard it is enough to consider the debt race in the Czech Republic. Prague, outside the euro, yesterday placed its 9-year bonds at a rate of 2,14%, an all-time low.
Asia awaits Ben Bernanke's speech in Jackson Hole with the typical nervousness of the eve. This morning the oriental price lists are falling: Tokyo is down by one percentage point, Hong Kong -1,35% is doing worse. Futures were also down: -0,4% on the US and London Stock Exchanges. Little move Wall Street. The US indices closed just above parity: Dow Jones +0,03%, S&P +0,08%, Nasdaq +0,13%.
Neither data on the real estate market nor the confirmation of US GDP growth (+1,7% in the quarter, as expected) served to shake the markets. In short, for investors, the only appointment that matters is Friday's speech in Jackson Hole by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. In this context, there is great anticipation for today's macroeconomic data, a possible key to interpreting the Federal Reserve's next decision. In particular, the Beige Book, the most faithful indicator of the American economy, will be announced in the evening.
In Milan, the FtseMib index closed with a drop of 0,33%. Negative session also in Paris -0,51% and London -0,56%. Frankfurt scores +0,11%. Gold (1659 dollars an ounce) and oil (95,02 dollars a barrel the WTI) fell slightly this morning. The euro fell slightly against the dollar to 1,2546 from 1,2552 at yesterday's close.
Among the Milanese blue chips, the price changes were limited. On the upside, the banks that have announced good results stand out. In particular, the Banco Popular rises by 3,45% thanks to the greater equity solidity. At the end of June, Core Tier 1 had risen to 10,2% from 7,1% at the start of the year, above the level required by the EBA. Also considering the extraordinary capital buffer required by the European authority in order to deal with sovereign risk, the Core Tier 1 capital ratio reaches 9,6%. UBS and Bank of America have both raised their target prices to €1,2 and €1,3 respectively. the recommendation of both is neutral.
Banking Pop.Milano salt by 1,54%. Bitter sitting instead for MontePaschi down by 7,97% after the announcement of a half-year loss of 1,6 billion due to maxi-writedowns. At the start of the session it had marked a decline of 9%. Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Cheuvreux cut the recommendation (downgrade) to sell, Natixis confirmed the judgment neutral and raised the target price to 0,21 euro from 0,19 euro.
During the conference call with analysts, the managing director Fabrizio Viola said that he was unable to provide further information on the new government bonds, as they are stuck with what is written in the decree and the implementing decrees and the necessary green light from the EU. The Core Tier1 as at 30 June marks an improvement to 10,8% before the new Treasury bonds, the so-called Monti Bonds, are issued. Monte dei Paschi should draw on loans from the Ministry of the Economy for 3,9 billion, of which 1,9 billion to replace the Tremonti Bonds already obtained.
Among industrial stocks, they are down Finmeccanica -1% and Fiat Industrial -1,2%. Positive Fiat +1,3%, despite the announcement of a new redundancy fund in Pomigliano, e StM + 0,8%.
Between the mid and small caps it shines Iren +13% who announced good results. Revenues rose by 34,4% to 2,267 billion euros, Ebitda grew by 2,9% to 336,1 million euros while net profit fell by 21,8% to 75,3 million. Net borrowing was positive, an indicator that raises concerns, down by 240 million euro from last June 30 to 2,654 billion. The company expects "a consolidation in the growth of activities due to the progressive contribution of the investments made, as well as the actions to reduce the financial debt".
Also on the rise Ivy. This morning Citigroup confirmed the Buy recommendation with a target price of 1,30 euro, the broker believes that the entry into the capital of Fondo Strategico, the operating arm of CDP, (confirmed in the conference call with analysts) "should strengthen the financial structure , increase flexibility and support the potential to participate in consolidation”.
Positive editorials: Rcs +24,3% after a long suspension due to excessive increases. The rally is supported by exceptional volumes, 4,4 million shares changed hands against a thirty-day average of 602.000 shares, 5,82 million were traded yesterday. Seat jumps up 21%. L'Espresso group +3%. The Only 24 hours + 5,2%.
Strong descent of Prelios -9,33%. The bitter clash between Marco Tronchetti Provera and the Malacalza family, which abstained from approving Camfin's quarterly accounts +0,61%, is taking center stage in Piazza Affari.
The auction of the unexercised rights of the capital increases of Fonsai e Unipol will start on September 3rd. Overall, the unsubscribed amount of the two increases, closed on 1 August last, concerns an equivalent value of approximately 665 million euro, which, in the event of non-subscription, would be borne by the banks of the guarantee syndicate, led by Mediobanca -2,89%.
Meanwhile, Unipol has said it is ready to subscribe, to purchase, as part of the stock exchange offer, a number of rights such as to allow the subscription of Fonsai ordinary shares for a maximum quota of 4,9% of the post-increase ordinary share capital. The four-party merger, which will also involve Premafin and Milano Assicurazioni, will be effective from the beginning of 2013.
Down, after six consecutive upward sessions, too cucinelli -5,4%. The accounts for the half-year "allow us to forecast growing numbers for the entire year, both in terms of volumes and profitability". Net financial debt improved significantly compared to 58,4 million as at 30 June 2011, falling to 14,2 million, thanks to the liquidity generated by the IPO.
Ferragamo closes the first half with profits (+22,5%) and revenues (+22,6%) up and confirms the expectations of "significant growth" for the full year, with an acceleration of the Retail sector and a slowdown of Wholesale in the second half of 2012. "Sales achieved in this first half of the year confirm, in the absence of particular market disturbances, an expectation of significant growth for the whole of 2012", reads the note on the results.
