After the slowdown at the end of 2015, "the recovery is starting to regain strength" in Italy, driven by private consumption and to a lesser extent by investments. He writes it the OECD in the six-monthly Economic Outlook, confirming the growth forecast of 1%. GDP for this year and 1,4% for the next, as in the February interim report, where it had revised its estimates for 2016 last autumn downwards. The Organization's estimates remain lower than those of the Government (+1,2% in 2016) and the European Commission (1,1%), but are a little more optimistic than those of the IMF (+1% this year and +1,1% in 2017).
The OECD also foresees a deficit/GDP to 2,3% this year (from 2,6% in 2015) and 2% in 2017, while the debt/GDP is indicated at 132,8% this year (as in 2015) and then declining to 131,9 .XNUMX% next, thanks to the support of the ECB's monetary policy and gradual fiscal consolidation.
La unemployment it is expected to drop to 11,3% in 2016 from 11,9% in 2015 and 10,8% in 2017, better levels than the autumn estimates (11,7% and 11% respectively). The growth ofoccupationhowever, it is expected at +0,6% and then +0,9% over the two years, slightly less than in the previous Outlook. L'inflation it is estimated at 0,2% this year and 0,9% next, against the backdrop of low energy prices and also still large spare capacity.
Employment growth – explains the OECD – has marked a temporary slowdown, but the increase in real incomes and the accumulated demand are supporting household spending. Even the investments they are turning around and are supporting growth, but the limits on the availability of bank credit prevent an acceleration of the recovery. The Government, according to the Organization, is paving the way for the creation of a secondary market for NPLs and the strengthening of bank balance sheets, which are an important condition for increasing credit and investment.
ITALY DOES MORE FOR PRODUCTIVITY AND ACCELERATE ON NPL
For the OECD, Italy "progress in structural reforms are helping to strengthen long-term growth prospects, but more needs to be done to boost productivity and social inclusion”. Among the political priorities to relaunch the productivity, the OECD puts resolution of the data node first non-performing loans which must be accelerated, the improvement in the process of selection and execution of public infrastructure projects and greater efficiency of the public administration, as well as innovation and greater dynamism of companies.
La rationalization and reduction of public spending is a priority - indicates the Organization - but will depend in part on an increase in the efficiency of the Public Administration. Above all, the permanent reduction of social security contributions, particularly on low wages, together with effective active labor market policies and the transfer of taxation on consumption and real estate, "would lay the foundations for stronger and more equitable growth".
La reduction of high youth unemployment it will then depend on better coordination between school and labor market policies. A complete and rapid implementation" of the reform of Good Schools and the Jobs Act would be "steps in the right direction". The quality and quantity of public and private investments will also be crucial to making the recovery sustainable. To this end, the new procurement code must be approved and, in addition to improving and accelerating the project selection and execution procedure, corruption must be "strongly fought". According to the OECD, further steps should be taken in the reform of bankruptcy procedures.
