The last televised debate between Obama and Romney will be a real "beautiful". After the flop of the first episode, and the (relative) success of the second, the incumbent President will attempt the final assault on a candidate who has known how to play dirty but also fine, anticipating the tenant of the White House in the search for the moderate vote .
A strategy that has paid off, if you look at the latest survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal with the NBC television network, which places the two horses in the race on equal points (47%). However, the conservative pretender stumbled several times, and rather awkwardly. But the unfortunate sortie of 18 September ("the poor don't interest me"), the unfortunate joke about the "bins full of women", and the disastrous reproach to the President on the attack in Libya, did not disassemble as one might have expected republican hopes.
The reason is, of course, the crisis. And here too GDP statistics and future expectations intersect in an inextricable tangle, which facilitates propaganda and demagoguery. It is true, the unemployment rate, which has fallen to 7,8% but is still far from pre-crisis levels, indicates that the recovery is underway. But it is a "jobless recovery" in which the creation of new jobs is proceeding too slowly, demonstrating that the ultra-expansive monetary policy adopted by the Federal Reserve has not been sufficient - in times of liquidity trap - to propel consumption and confidence. The Republican wall in the House of Representatives was insurmountable in an attempt to use the tax incentive to encourage consumption.
Romney's plan to revive employment - the Republican candidate boasts a ghost program of 12 million jobs - is very indefinite, and the elephant's economic policy has only the dismantling of Obamacare as its points of certainty and the decrease in social spending.
But if – in November – Obama wins again, the picture would still be very uncertain: an almost lethal load of welfare cuts and tax increases could soon hit the stars and stripes economy. It is the legacy of the battle – fought in August 2011 – on raising the debt ceiling, usually a quasi-administrative practice which a year ago risked plunging the country into technical default.
The bipartisan committee, created ad hoc as a counterpart to the Republicans (in exchange for the ok to raise the debt limit) and tasked with identifying an ideal mix to contain the deficit, was unable to deliver a shared plan, and with in all likelihood the "safeguard clause" will be triggered which was approved and put on standby to ensure the achievement of federal finance objectives. The shears will hit items of expenditure dear to Republicans (such as defense) and Democrats (welfare, education) equally, but will impact the US economy by 4% of GDP. At that point, the real "double dip" in the recession would be almost a certainty, rather than a probability.
But tonight, the two contenders will probably continue to challenge each other on other grounds, such as foreign policy: so far the fiscal cliff has not been so central to the debate. Almost as if, by now, both Republicans and Democrats are resigned to the explosion of that tax bomb that terrifies not only Americans, but the entire world economy. Or that they still keep their cards face down.
