A freer Barack Obama. Less victim of internal consensus. No more worried about his re-election. This is how he should deal with the American President in his second term in foreign policy. It is the opinion of Stefano Silvestri, at the head of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI).
FIRSTonline – A result marked by continuity also for international relations?
Of course: the administration should remain the same. The only possible change is for Obama to feel less conditioned by public opinion, by Parliament and by the parties. He will be freer to act. And this could mean more explicit positions, especially in the Middle East.
FIRSTonline – What can change there?
He could take a tougher attitude towards Israel, even if we need to see how Benjamin Netanyahu's policy will evolve on the Iran and Palestine fronts, a dossier that in reality seems to be of no interest to anyone lately, not even the Palestinians. Then, so far, Obama has been very cautious about the Arab Spring and also about countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, those of conservative Islam. Now that his hands are freer, the US President could make the distinction between the Islamists with whom one can discuss and those with whom, however, this is not possible.
FIRSTonline – Let's come to Europe. Here, however, Obama's re-election provides some relief compared to the decidedly less pro-European option for Romney…
Let's say it's always better to deal with the devil you know. In reality, a relaunch of relations between the USA and the EU would also be desirable on the part of Obama. A Euro-American free trade treaty, for example, could be an initiative in this direction. And in contrast to the progressive weakening of the bond between the two sides of the Atlantic, seen in recent times, not so much because of Obama's will but because he finds himself going with the flow.
FIRSTonline – Why is Asia the priority now?
In a certain way, yes. And indeed it is very interesting to see the evolution of relations with Beijing, now that we are on the verge of a Sino-American crisis, with the United States fearing Chinese nationalism and China fearing an encirclement by the United States . Things could change, just now that the works of the Communist Party congress are starting. So far we have seen swings in Obama's relationship with the Asian giant.
At the beginning of his first term, the President had promoted various initiatives of openness towards China. Then he became colder and more cautious, also because Beijing embarked on the path of greater protectionism and entered into this process of change of leadership. Let's hope it now ends with a clear transition, not left half done. This could positively influence relations between the two parties. And Obama, with his re-election, has more leeway.
FIRSTonline – Returning to the confrontation with Romney, relief also for relations with Russia…
Yes, the Republican nominee had a Cold War strategy. Obama is more moderate. He will continue on the current line. And perhaps we will see a few more proposals on the anti-missile system.
