In mid-2014, the first Wine Monitor data on world wine imports show a slowdown compared to the same period of the previous year. The analysis carried out on the top 20 markets for wine imports – whose purchases account for around 85% of the world total – highlights a change of pace with respect to the growth dynamics that have characterized past years. Even if it is too early to make considerations for the whole year, the estimates for the first half of 2014 show a drop in the overall values of imported wines of 3,9% (measured in euro) against a stability in volumes (-0,1 ,2013%). However, it is worth remembering that in 8,5 the quantities of wine marketed worldwide were the lowest in the last three years and that the growth rates in the first half of each year in this period went from +2011% in 0,4 to +2013% in XNUMX. In short, a sort of slowdown that seems almost physiological after the rush of imports in past years.
"Looking at the individual types" explains Denis Pantini, Director of the Agri-food Area of Nomisma and Project leader of Wine Monitor "the most significant drops in this first half year concern bulk wines and bottled still wines, while for sparkling and semi-sparkling wines the growth does not seem stopped".
Obviously this is not a generalized trend. The main drops concern China (-15% in import values in euros), Canada (-12%), Switzerland (-9%) and Germany (-8%). As far as the United States is concerned, the variation is small, while Japan, Norway and Brazil, on the other hand, also show double-digit growth.
Even if this diversity of direction that seems to concern the individual markets does not allow us to draw a univocal interpretation of the phenomenon, it is nevertheless evident that after several years of growth in imports, the same markets today seem to be taking a breather. A "reflection" that also partially affects Italian wines.
“In particular” continues Pantini “Italy suffers a reduction in exports to Germany (-10% in value) and Canada (-12%), substantially holding on to the United States but growing in the United Kingdom (+9%), Japan (+12%) and above all in Scandinavia, with a 15% growth in Norway, mainly due to the excellent performance of sparkling wines and bag in box wines”.
Maintaining the positions of Italian wines in the main world markets is essential for the sustainability of the entire national wine supply chain, especially in the light of the continuous declines recorded in wine consumption on the domestic market.
An insight made by Wine Monitor on the financial statements of Italian wineries in the last five years has in fact highlighted how the profitability of the sector (measured in terms of ROI) is strongly correlated to exports. During the five-year period considered, the ROI of companies decreased significantly in 2009, the year in which the crisis started and the export of Italian wine decreased, while it showed growth dynamics in the following years, in a context of export development in the face of a drop in consumption at the national level. As further evidence of this link, consider that this index assumes higher values as the size of the companies increases (in terms of sales) and becomes negative in companies with a turnover of less than 2 million euro, for which the markets foreign countries are generally more difficult to achieve.
