There is no real reason behind the continuous decline in the MPS share, which in five months has lost 40% on the stock exchange and which is still suffering today, in Piazza Affari, but the lack of visibility on the near future is putting a strain on the Sienese bank. In reality there are mainly two contributing causes that weigh on the listing of MPS on the Stock Exchange which have nothing to do with the real management performance of the bank.
The first is the very limited free float, which is less than 30% of the capital because 68,2% of the capital is held by the shareholder Treasury and 4,3% by Generali, and as such favors the most banal speculative operations. You don't need to be a hedge fund, even though they are seen in manoeuvring, but a slightly expert trader who knows how to move on the stock market and play short is enough to make the stock skyrocket while investing quite modest sums.
Obviously, the stock is particularly exposed to all the winds of the market because no one knows who the next economy minister will be and what he will do on Monte dei Paschi: he will ask the bank's top management to change the plan, he will try to replace the directors, he will suggest merger with other banks? He who knows.
In such an uncertain situation and in the absence of new balance sheet data, which will be announced with the quarterly report of early May and which will probably disappoint the pessimists, it is clear that the volatility of the Sienese bank's stock is at its highest. And that even less important news, such as the recent change of CFO due to the resignation of Francesco Mele, who wanted to return to work in Milan where he will become CEO of Corrado Passera's Spaxs and who has already been replaced internally with Andrea Rovellini, are artfully magnified.
Marco Morelli, the CEO of Monte dei Paschi who is trying to pilot the bank out of the shallows, will try Thursday to reassure the financial community by meeting international investors in the City of London but until clear signals come from politics and until the new balance sheet data, it will be difficult for the bank to regain peace of mind on the stock exchange.
