Monte dei Paschi di Siena consolidates the rise and gains around 16 around 2% in the wake of the good performance of the Ftse Mib (+2,49%). The Sienese bank tries to make up for a small part of the collapse filed yesterday (-10% and 300 million of capitalization burned in a single session) by exploiting the better sentiment of the lists and the news of the willingness of the guarantee syndicate to support the operation for the recapitalization of Mps even in the event of a substantial increase in its size. Press rumors in recent days have in fact re-launched the hypothesis that MPS may decide to ask the market for much more than the 3 billion euros announced. Tomorrow the issue will be addressed by the bank's board of directors.
The most accredited hypothesis is that the president Alessandro Profumo and CEO Fabrizio Viola can decide to increase the market demand a 5 billion. However, there are those, such as the financier Davide Serra, who go so far as to state that the bank would need 6 billion. In any case, the idea would be to take advantage of the interest of investors and the abundant liquidity of this period to be able to immediately repay all the Monti bonds. The current commitments envisage the partial repayment of the Monti bonds for 3 billion by the end of this year and next year the remaining part to a total of 4,1 billion. On the plate there would also be the will to take measures on the need for capital relating to the asset quality review launched by the ECB.
Yesterday in fact, a note from the bank confirmed that "following what appeared in the media, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena announces that following the publication of the asset quality review manual and therefore the indication of the activities, criteria and methodologies that will be followed (and which are being implemented, analyzed and processed by the Bank) as well as the talks held with the Supervisory Authority, the Bank is assessing the implications in relation to the amount necessary to be able to carry out the expected NSF repayment within the year from the commitments made to the European Commission. Once the relevant decisions have been taken, the Bank will promptly inform the market".
And last night sources in the consortium reassured that the banks in the guarantee pool are available to raise the bar up to 5 billion and they would have already communicated it to Rocca Salimbeni. Market conditions and the decline in the shareholding structure of the Mps Foundation "make it easier to carry out the increase", a consortium bank announced, even if the amount was ultimately much higher than the 3 billion already approved . At the moment no extraordinary board of directors of the bank has been convened (the first one on the agenda is set for May 14) even if a decision could be close given that the time to do everything by June is tight. In the meantime, Consob has suspended short selling of the stock until midnight this evening.
In short, the consortium not only did not run away, but is willing to up the ante. A capital increase increased by another two billion should not be an insurmountable obstacle for the MPS Foundation which in recent weeks has managed to put its accounts in order by selling substantial packages of its share which has thus fallen to 2,5% (bound in a shareholder pact with 4,5% of Fintech and 2% of Btg Pactual , with the commitment to subscribe pro rata to the 3 billion increase).
In the event of a 5 billion recapitalization, in order not to further dilute itself, the Foundation will have to find 125 million compared to the 75 previously estimated. The Foundation (as well as the city itself) was caught off guard, although it can now count on around 400 million in cash and is not in an emergency. In any case, to increase the recapitalization it is necessary for the BoD to reconvene the extraordinary shareholders' meeting.
