The attention of Piazza Affari will still be concentrated on Monte Paschi, by now at the center of the political dispute and the clamor of potentially sensational judicial investigations. After the go-ahead, on Saturday, for the issue of the New Financial Instruments, the Bank of Italy has already sent the opinion on the Bank's current and prospective capital adequacy to the Ministry of Economy. Now it's up to the Treasury to complete the process required by law to allow the MPS to issue the bonds. Tomorrow Minister Vittorio Grilli will report to Parliament on the matter. Before that, the issue will be tackled by the Financial Stability Committee which includes, among others, the Treasury, the Bank of Italy and Consob. Finally, it will be up to the board of directors of the bank which will have to launch the issue of the 3,9 billion Monti bonds, the repayment of which can take place in three ways: a) cash payment up to the amount of the profit; b) in the event of a loss, in Monte shares at market value; c) with new 9,5% bonds provided EU approval arrives.
Will the Mount make it? Alessandro Profumo and Fabrizio Viola say yes, but are sharpening their weapons to speed up the launch of the one billion capital increase (with the exclusion of the pre-emption right of the current shareholders). Before the increase, he will have canceled the restriction on the 4% ceiling, which applies to shareholders other than foundations. Alessandro Profumo does not hide his preferences: “I would like to have a long-term financial partner. Nationality is not important. The important thing is that he believes in the project” of “giving a stable future to the oldest bank in the world” which today is “completely independent from the parties”. The prospect of a strong partner could push the stock higher after last week's very high volatility, which closed with a rebound of more than 10%.
On Wednesday 30, twenty-four hours after the report that Economy Minister Vittorio Grilli will give in Parliament on the MPS case, the president of Banco de Santander Emilio Botín-Sanz de Sautuola y García de los Ríos, Marquis Consort of O'Shea will have to address the grievances of the 140 holders of convertible bonds issued at the time of the Abn Amro operation which will be converted into shares at a value equal to more or less half the issue price in 2007. Yet Banco de Santander was the only winner of the takeover of the Dutch bank. The tender offer partners, the Belgian Fortis and the British Rbs, were saved from bankruptcy by their respective states. The fate of Mps, which took over the Italian "prey" of the takeover, i.e. Antonveneta, from Santander at a high price, is suffering a similar fate. But Wednesday's meeting will certainly not lack criticism of the 77-year-old Botìn, XNUMX, the number one banker in Europe who survived the great crisis unscathed also due to the gifts arriving from Siena. On the financial markets, however, a moderate optimism reigns.
ASIA
The latest positive note comes from China: in December the profits of Beijing companies recorded a significant improvement. Asian lists are up starting from Hong Kong +0,5% and Shanghai +1,6%. The exception is Tokyo -0,78%, despite the fact that the yen fell to 91,06 against the dollar, the lowest since August 2010. However, the currency dispute between the powers of the region is worrying: the Korean won has also weakened along with the yen , in an attempt to counter the increased competitiveness of goods in Tokyo. Meanwhile, the Japanese premier Shinzo Abe announced that, thanks to the recovery of exports and consumption, the government hopes to collect much more in taxes, thus limiting the issue of new government bonds.
AMERICA
On Wall Street, the S&P500 index closed the past week up by 0,54%, for the first time over the 1500 level at the close (1502,96). The Nasdaq rose 0,45% and the Dow Jones rose 0,51%. Also on Friday, Exxon (418 billion dollars of capitalization) returned to the top in the ranking by stock market value, overtaking Apple (413 billion) which dropped by 245 billion from the highs of September. After Davos central bank activity resumes. The Federal Reserve is meeting on Wednesday. No significant changes are expected, at least in terms of rates, which have been stuck for some time between 0 and 0,25%, or in terms of purchases of securities on the secondary market (85 billion a month).
The markets, however, await more precise indications on the economic trend: the first indications for the fourth quarter confirm a slowdown in the recovery. Then, the relay within the FOMC, the committee of four governors who vote together with Bernanke: enter James Bullard (Saint-Louis), Esther George (Kansas City) and Eric Rosengren (Boston) and the leader of the doves Charles Evams (Chicago) proponent of even more aggressive measures against the recession.
EUROPA
European stock markets closed sharply higher: London +0,3%, Paris +0,6%. Buoyed by a surprisingly positive Ifo index reading, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange was up 1,4%. The Davos meeting ratified progress in crisis management by the ECB. ECB President Mario Draghi underlined the improvements in European financial markets and said that the recovery in the euro area will begin to manifest itself in the second half of this year.
The most disturbing note concerns the foreign exchange market. Despite the warnings of Angela Merkel and Mario Monti, worried that the strengthening of the currency will curb exports, the euro rose this morning to 1,3455 against the dollar (from 1,345 at the previous closing), to 1,2496 against the franc Swiss (from 1,2444) and 0,8540 against the pound (from 0,8518).
ITALY
Not even the Monte Paschi derivatives scandal has stopped the rise of Piazza Affari which during the week recorded a rise of 0,97% which brings the gain since the beginning of 8,9 to +2013%. progress with the yield falling mid-session to 4,07%, the lowest level for over two years (November 2011). The final close was at 4,11%, with the spread falling by 10 points to 248.
INSIDE BUSINESS PLACE
The first budgets are coming. Spotlights on Fiat, unchanged on Friday, in view of the board meeting on Wednesday 30 which will be held in the former Bertone plant in Grugliasco, ready to restart with the production of Maserati. According to the consensus published on the Fiat website, analysts predict that the Lingotto will close 2012 with a net profit of 1,3 billion euros. According to the experts, the trading profit should amount to 3,81 billion, while the net industrial debt is expected to be 6,61 billion. Analysts forecast profits of 2013 billion euros for 1,62 and 2014 billion for 2,05. Fiat will publish the accounts on Wednesday 30 January.
Attention to Impregilo after the decision of the civil court of Milan which rejected the appeal of Gavio who asked for the annulment of last July's meeting which saw the victory of Pietro Salini. In particular, the court has not revived the hypothesis of a hidden agreement between Salini and the Amber fund. Now the challenge moves to the Antitrust and, above all, to the Milan prosecutor's office where Aalini himself, the general manager Massimo Ferrari, the financier Joseph Oghurlian of Amber and his Italian representative Umberto Mossetti are under investigation for alleged insider trading.
MPS aside, the banks closed on Friday in contrast: Unicredit +0,4%, Intesa -0,8%, Banco Popolare -0,1%. In asset management, Azimut rose by 1,6%. Among other industrial stocks, brilliant StM, up 3,9% after the promotion of Exane to outperform. Instead, Pirelli fell, down by 3,3% after Deutsche Bank cut the recommendation to hold from buy. Eni fell back by 0,7%: SocGen cut its buy recommendation to hold. Saipem lost 2,6% and Tenaris 1,2%. Telecom Italy -0,8%.
