Piazza Affari has decided to bring forward the Halloween party. Protagonist Monte Paschi, who pledged to give investors shivers on the day of the presentation of the plan approved by the Board of Directors. The stock got off to a flying start with an increase of more than 20% in the wake of the maxi performance (+100%) achieved since last October 17, to then take the downward path just as the Sienese bank's number one was exposing the business plan up to 2019 to analysts and managers.
In the end, Mps shares suffered a drop of 14,99%, settling at 0,29 euro, on volumes equal to 12% of the share capital. Overall, analysts promote the industrial plan (albeit a very ambitious one) but complain about the absence of signals both on the protagonists and on the modalities of the relaunch of Monte, especially as regards the new assets (5 billion).
“Today it is difficult to make judgments without knowing the conversion conditions of subordinated bonds or without the certainty of the existence of anchor investors,” declared a manager. “The message that emerged from the presentation seems to recommend going long on MPS bonds and shorting shares,” added Hammer Partners.
RECORD FINES FOR VOLKSWAGEN IN THE USA: 14,7 BILLION DOLLARS
Not only Monte Paschi. Yesterday will be remembered in the annals of finance for the heavy fine, over 14 billion dollars, inflicted by American justice on a German giant. No, it's not Deutsche Bank, it's Volkswagen. Judge Charles Breyer of San Francisco accepted the group's compensation proposal against the Federal State, California and 475 indicted diesel car owners. All for 14,7 billion dollars.
This is the heaviest fine ever paid by a car manufacturer, but it occupies only third place overall behind the maxi penalty inflicted on tobacco companies (246 billion in 1998) and that on BP (56 billion in 2010) for pollution of the gulf of Mexico.
SALES HOLD BACK (-9% IN THE QUARTER): APPLE RELYS ON CHRISTMAS
The day ended with one last flop. As forecast, for the first time in more than ten years, Apple's sales are down: -9% in the last quarter, -8% to 215,6 billion for the entire fiscal year, due to the reception tepid market for the iPhone 6 S. Apple flaunts security: in the current quarter, which will include Christmas sales, turnover will rise by at least one percentage point, between 76 and 78 billion dollars (+1%) , thanks to the success of the iPhone 7, but also of the Apple Store and Apple Music services, which have become the group's second source of revenue (+24,6%), as underlined by the CFO Luca Maestri.
Even China, after a drop of 30%, is clearly recovering but the competitive advantage over the competition, as demonstrated by the profitability lower than forecasts, is shrinking: according to the company, profits for the holiday season will be lower than the expectations of analysts. After the Stock Exchange, the stock fell by 2,79%, to 114,95 dollars, against 118,25 at the closing.
ASIA AND OIL DOWN. WHIRLPOOL THUD (-11,2%)
Asian Stock Exchanges were down: Tokyo and Shanghai -0,2%, Hong Kong -0,3%. In New York, the stock markets recorded a downward correction: Dow Jones -0,25%, S&P -0,35%. The Nasdaq was also down (-0,53%).
The rise of the dollar continues, reaching new three-month highs against both the euro (1,0851 +0,2%) and the yen (104,51%). The pound bottomed out at 1,2082. The strength of the dollar, combined with the increase in inventories has caused another decline in oil. Wti crude fell below 50 dollars, Brent to 50,31.
The accounts of some industry leaders disappoint. Whirlpool plummets (-11,2%) after having revised the year-end estimates. The same is true for real estate Sherwin-Williams (-10,89%). The two signals have been interpreted as indicators of the slowdown in the new housing market.
Down also General Motors (-4,3% after the accounts), as well as Caterpillar (-1,7%). The most brilliant result was that of Procter & Gamble (+3,9%). Net revenues were flat at $16,5 billion, in line with estimates. Ebit was also unchanged at 3,77 billion dollars. Net income increased 4% to $2,7 billion.
DRAGHI INSISTS: QE WILL NOT CHANGE, MILAN -0,4%
After a long streak of pluses, the minus sign is back in European equities. Meanwhile, Mario Draghi has returned to responding to the criticisms coming from Germany. “There are no signs that low interest rates are shifting financial income from stronger countries to weaker countries, as is often claimed,” the ECB president said during a speech in Berlin.
Therefore we are not changing course: "Looking ahead, we remain committed to maintaining a very significant degree of expansionary monetary policy, necessary for inflation to converge towards levels below, but close to, 2%". Words that seem to go in the direction of a further postponement of the quantitative easing deadline. Draghi noted that “low nominal and real yields everywhere” is the salient feature of monetary policy.
Milan closed down by 0,4%, stopping at 17.230 points. Italy has received the letter with which the European Commission requests clarifications on the Budget law. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi reiterated that "the maneuver cannot be changed".
In negative territory Madrid (-1,1%), Paris (-0,5%) and Frankfurt (-0,1%). On the other hand, London rose (+0,33%), in the wake of the drop in the pound, which supported international stocks that generate revenues outside the country. In fact, the day saw the British currency lose ground against the US dollar until it reached a minimum of 1,2083.
8,5 BILLION BTP AT AUCTION. AUSTRIA LAUNCHES TITLE AT 70 YEARS OLD
Flat closure for the Italian secondary. Today the Treasury will make available to investors between 750 million and 1,5 billion Btpei over 10 and 15 years in the first of the placements at the end of the month. On Friday, however, the Ministry of the Economy will make available to investors a total of between 7 and 8,5 billion in medium-long term securities, including the new CctEu of 15 February 2024.
Meanwhile, Austria has launched its first 70-year bond, issued for 2 billion euros, with an order book that closed at over 7,8 billion euros and the yield on the bond maturing in November 2086 set at 53 points based on that of the thirtieth anniversary February 2047.
MARCHIONNE RAISES RATES. “IN 2016 WE WILL SELL NOTHING”
Fiat Chrysler had a strong third quarter with adjusted net income of $740 million. In addition, the company has revised upwards its operating profit estimates for the current year: 2016 should close at 5,8 billion euros, 300 million euros more than the previous indication thanks to the "strong operating performance of the first nine months". On the other hand, the estimate of net revenues at over 112 billion euros and that of net industrial debt below 5 billion euros were confirmed, even though since the end of June, industrial debt had risen by one billion euros to 6,51, XNUMX billion: the company has confirmed that it will go down at the end of the year.
“There is almost 100% certainty that no deal will be made during the fourth quarter,” CEO Sergio Marchionne said during the quarterly results conference call, regarding the possible sale by the end of the year of Magneti Marelli to the Korean Samsung or Comau.
Moreover, “I have never said that these assets are for sale and I have never referred to an agreement, in particular with Samsung. These are internal issues, the dialogue continues”, the CEO pointed out. The group receives "constant approaches from numerous different buyers" interested in its subsidiaries, but the CEO has guaranteed that the group will not carry out "any forced sale".
As for Alfa Romeo, "it's going well" and "the plans" for the brand "are going as we expected," Marchionne assured. In particular, the Giulia is having excellent results and for the Alfa brand "we are planning a major launch with the first SUV, which we hope to present at the Los Angeles auto show".
SAIPEM, RECOVERED ONLY IN 2008 (MAYBE)
Saipem -3,8% before the accounts announced last night with the stock market closed. The oil equipment quarterly slips into the red by 1,925 billion euros in the first nine months (1,978 billion in the third quarter), due to write-downs. 2016 guidance confirmed: revenues at around 10,5 billion, adjusted Ebit at around 600 million, adjusted net at around 250 million and net debt at around 1,5 billion. The company expects 2017 revenues to be around 10 billion, Ebitda around 1 billion, net profit above 200 million and net debt below 1,4 billion.
“The market recovery is delayed to 2017 and beyond. It is difficult to say whether 2018 will be the year of recovery”, said the CFO, Giulio Bozzini, in a call. The strategic plan approved by the Board of Saipem to 2020 provides for the reduction of 800 jobs in Europe. Net debt at 30 September 2016 decreased to 1.673 million euros from 5.390 million euros at 31 December 2015 following the 3,5 billion capital increase operation carried out in the first quarter of the year.
On the other hand, the quarterly luxury articles are doing well. Luxottica +4,4%: the stock rises after the results of the third quarter, with revenues up by 1,2%, in line with expectations. Tod's +4,5%: during the conference call, the financial director Emilio Macellari said that the year should close with revenues down slightly, around 2% year on year, which is in line with consensus expectations. The manager said that some improvement in sales should be seen from the end of 2016.
Ynap thud (-3,5%) despite Kepler Cheuvreux's choice to raise the target price from 28 to 32 euros, confirming the buy recommendation.
BLACKROCK OVER 5% IN TELECOM, BANKS WEAK
Telecom Italia +0,7% on a morning of widespread increases in the European telecommunications sector: the EuroStoxx Tlc index advances by 2% led by the French Orange: the former France Telecom rises by 4,8% after announcing good results for the third quarter . Deutsche Telekom gains 3,4%. Blackrock has once again risen above the 5% threshold in Telecom Italia, through shares and derivatives for a 5,065% stake.
Setback for the banks in line with the decline in Mps. Unicredit loses 3%, Intesa -0,1%, Ubi -3,6%, Banco Popolare -3%, Banca Pop. Emilia -4,1%, Banca Pop. Milan -2,7%.
