Italy remains behind in Europe: in 2019 and 2020 GDP growth will again be the lowest in the Eurozone and in the EU, with a gap that is increasing compared to the average of the other euro area countries, going from 0,9% in 2018 to 1,1% in 2019, to then drop to 0,8% in 2020. This is what emerges from the European Union's winter forecasts, which the Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici commented in the press conference after Brussels had already released a forecast which for Italy stops at +0,2% for the current year, with a cut of one percentage point (from 1,2% in the autumn) in just three months: "On the fall in the Italian GDP at At the end of 2018, political uncertainty, declining investment and debt financing costs also played their part. There could be a recovery in the second half of 2019 and in 2020 GDP should recover to +0,8%, also because there will be more working days next year". However, Moscovici recalled that the Btp Bund spread fell in December after Brussels' intervention on the Italian manoeuvre: "This demonstrates that we made the right decision, imagine what would have happened if we hadn't. The situation would have been much worse without the agreement we reached with the Government in December”.
Growth 2019 #ECForecast:
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Learn more → https://t.co/VBy3qmh5nB—European Commission ?? (@EU_Commission) 7 February 2019
However, the European Commission has also cut its growth and inflation estimates for the entire Eurozone in 2019 and 2020. For the Eurozone it expects growth at 1,3% this year against the autumn forecast of 1,9%; while in 2020 GDP is expected to grow by 1,6% against the previous 1,7%. In 2018, growth is indicated at 1,9%. In the EU, 1,5% is estimated for this year and 1,7% for next year against the previous estimate of 1,9% and 1,8% respectively. “The drop in oil prices also weighs on the decline in forecasts”, commented Moscovici. As for inflation, Brussels now forecasts 1,4% in 2019 and 1,5% in 2020 (in November it estimated 1,8% and 1,6% respectively). 2018 closed at 1,7%. "The budget is more negative than positive, in anticipation", admitted the French Commissioner, commenting on the general situation of the continental economy. “However, there is good news on the labor and employment front, and we expect this to lead to a recovery in 2020”.
The usual came out in the morning too Bulletin of the ECB, which speaks of declining growth due to protectionism and geopolitical factors, and confirms unchanged rates for 2019, however announcing interventions if necessary. “The risks to the growth prospects in the euro area – writes the European Central Bank – have tilted to the downside due to the persistent uncertainties related to geopolitical factors and the threat of protectionism, the vulnerability of emerging markets and the volatility of financial markets. The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move steadily towards the close to 2% target. Last but not least news on the state of health of the European economy, again negative, came Wednesday on Germany, whose industrial orders plummeted worse than expected in December 2018, losing 1,6% (Analysts were even expecting a slight rise of 0,3%). Berlin too therefore risked a technical recession at the end of 2018 and in 2019 it will have to drastically reduce its growth forecasts, to 1% from 1,5% last year. The same The EU has revised the German GDP considerably downwards, at 1,1% from 1,8%, than that Dutch, to 1,7% from 2,4%: a cut for both countries of 0,7% compared to the autumn forecasts.
