Between interruptions in gas supplies, new tensions on the inflation front in the US and the not encouraging prospects (worse) of the US quarterly reports, the markets are preparing to experience yet another difficult week. The confirmation comes from the prices, all downwards, of the futures on European and US indices: Eurostoxx -0,7%, S&P -0,4%.
Le Maire: "Moscow's gas stop is likely".
The epicenter of the crisis is undoubtedly energy. This morning, Gazprom officially closed the tap on the gas pipeline for ten days Nord Stream 1 which directly connects Siberia to Germany and guarantees 60 of the 200 billion cubic meters of Russian methane that is pumped to Europe every year. The stop, officially, serves to replace a turbine but no one, starting with the French industry minister Bruno Le Maire, is under any illusions: "It is increasingly probable that Russian supplies will be cut off" which will impose rationing in consumption. But Germany does not give up on a last minute attempt to please Putin: under German pressure the Canada has granted permission to deliver to Moscow the Siemens turbine under maintenance in the North American country needed to run the gas pipeline. A clear breach of sanctions against Putin: will it be enough to buy time? And at what price?
Currencies, the race for safe harbor restarts: euro at 1,0570
In doubt, the markets resumed the race towards the "safe haven" of the dollar: this morning thedollar index has rocked new highs for twenty years. The euro, which is approaching parity, slipped to 1,0570 after losing 2,4% last week.
Gas in Europe starts again from 174 euro MWh.
US inflation is rising, quarterly reports are underway
The other issue fueling market uncertainty concerns US inflation which, according to forecasts, should be close to 9%, as confirmed by the data released on Wednesday. On the same day, Pepsi Cola will kick off the earnings season, a particularly delicate moment because after six consecutive quarters of strongly growing earnings, the first messages could arrive on the deterioration already anticipated by the trend of macroeconomic data, raw material prices and freight costs. Big bank accounts are scheduled for Thursday and Friday, from JP Morgan to Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
The 3,09-year Treasury Note traded XNUMX% this morning.
The Guardian reveals Uber's dirty tricks
It's raining on Uber the tile of the revelations of Guardian on the platform's lobbying action against the resistance of taxi drivers. US society has not hesitated to use every means, legal or otherwise (including support for the more violent actions of pro-taxi) to create a more positive climate. There are Emmanuel Macron and the former EU commissioner Neelie Kroes among European leaders to have secretly helped Uber according to the details revealed by 124 documents relating to the period 2013-2017. The company would also have tried to put pressure on then US vice president Joe Biden, on the German chancellor Olaf Scholz and on the former British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne as well as having solicited the interest of Matteo Renzi, then prime minister, who denies contacts with the platform.
Energy and wages, two emergencies for Draghi. Today the INPS report
On the Italian front, the expectation of tomorrow's meeting between the Prime Minister and the union leaders on the minimum wage, salaries and the fight against inflation is holding the table.
Today, in addition to plans to deal with the energy emergency (for once Italy seems ahead of its EU partners in storage), Istat data on inflation and the annual report on INPS activities are to be followed.
At the European level, industrial production figures are due in May. The European Commission's summer economic forecasts will be released on Thursday.
Fly Tokyo, new squeeze on Covid in China
Not only were the results of the Asian stock exchanges brilliant, with the exception of Tokyo +1,5%. Sunday's vote, on the wave of emotion for theassassination attempt on Shinzo Abe, assured a solid majority to the governing party, the LDP, which will now be able to proceed with the revision of the Constitution, removing the constraints on greater investments in defence.
Chinese markets were down: Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2,7% and Shanghai and Shenzen's CSI 300 lost 2%. In Macau, where the Covid outbreak is spreading, the authorities have closed all indoor leisure activities, including casinos, for a week. A few cases of a new variation of Covid -19, the terrible Omicron 5, the most infectious of all, were discovered in Shanghai.
Tomorrow the monthly OPEC report will be released on the eve of Joe Biden's mission to Saudi Arabia. In the meantime WTI oil is down 1% to $104. Brent at $106.
Headlines to follow: Stm mega-investment in France.
This morning Le Figaro anticipates that in Versailles, in the context of the made in France event, President Emanuel Macron will announce the construction of a new plant for the production of chips by Stm. The operation, under the direction of the European Union, will involve an investment of 4 billion euros.
Autogrill/Dufry merger. Benetton first members of the group
Autogrill has announced that it will merge into Dufry. This will create a global player with over 12 billion in revenues and EBITDA of approximately 1,3 billion. Dufry will make a mandatory public offer to exchange Autogrill shares for Dufry shares or, alternatively, for cash. Autogrill minority shareholders can choose to deliver their shares in exchange for Dufry paper, at a ratio of 0,158, or cash, at 6,33 euros, around half a euro less than Friday's closing price. Edizione, which currently controls 50,3% of Autogrill, will become the major shareholder of the new Group, of which it will hold approximately between 25% and 20% at the end of the transaction, depending on the level of participation in the Opa.
Other topics: Banks, Prysmian and Leonardo
Banks under scrutiny. Bper Banca, KBW cuts the judgment to Market Perform, target price 2,06 euro. The same broker reduced the target prices of Unicredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Mediobanca and Banco BPM.
Prysmian. Citi cuts the target price to 31 euros.
Leonardo launched a commercial paper program which envisages issues for a maximum amount of 1 billion euro to provide an additional short-term funding tool.
