Morgan Stanley cut its growth estimates for the global economy between 2011 and 2012. According to the American institute, the signs of a slowdown are now evident. In the investment bank's report published today by Bloomberg, analysts expect GDP to grow by 3,9% for the current year, a marked decrease compared to the 4,2% of the initial estimates. For 2012 the forecasts drop instead from +4,5 to +3,8%. In particular, the European GDP for 2011 is revised to 1,7% from the previous 2%. On 2012, however, the estimate goes from 1,7% to 0,5%.
The European sovereign debt crisis weighs heavily, explains the Bank in a note, above all because political leaders do not seem able to find "an adequate response". The decline in confidence is by now general and the only way out hypothesised for now is that of a heavy fiscal tightening on financial transactions with the Tobin Tax. All of this brings the overall scenario perilously close to recession.
A risk which, according to Morgan Stanley, will push the European Central Bank to cut the cost of money in 2012. According to the institute's analysts, a monetary tightening in October "can be safely ruled out", while rates are likely to fall next year at 1%. According to estimates prior to the end of 2012, the reference rate would have stood at 2%.
The news immediately caused a sharp backlash on European lists, which all turned negative. Around 13 pm Milan lost 3,83%. London leaves the field 2,14%, Paris 2,80% and Frankfurt 3,60%.
