La Seoul Stock Exchange welcomes Mario Monti this morning with a slight decrease: -0,3%. On the contrary the Tokyo Stock Exchange +0,26% takes advantage of the decline in the yen; balanced Hong Kong. However, the reasons for concern about the Chinese economy are growing. This time in the crosshairs are the bank loans to the regional financial institutions. According to the Regulatory Commission, the Beijing Supervisory Authority, about 20 percent of loans have been incorrectly classified as low-risk loans.
After overnight stop in Kazakhstan, Mario Monti a difficult mission begins in South Korea: to explain to the Asian business community that investing in Italy and in its public debt is a great opportunity. After Seoul, Monti will touch, in ten days of travel, Japan and China. The agenda includes, among other things, the participation of the Conference on Nuclear Security, the Boao Forum (the Asian Davos), and bilateral meetings, including the one with Barack Obama. To better explain the Italian situation after the interventions and reforms (including the labor bill), ad hoc illustrative material was prepared to be delivered to all interlocutors, including journalists from the Nikkei Shimbun, the most widely circulated economic newspaper in Tokyo, where the premier will meet investors and economists.
Diplomatic incident with Spain. On Saturday in Cernobbio, Mario Monti mentioned the problems of Madrid which "has made a very incisive labor reform but hasn't paid attention to the accounts" and therefore "is giving the EU worries because rates are rising and it takes little to recreate a contagion that could spread». An unwelcome reference to Spain which forced the premier himself to make a correction: the Italian prime minister, according to a note, "reaffirmed his total confidence in the determination of the Spanish government" with regard to "fiscal consolidation, also to avoid widening of spreads". But Spanish irritation, judging by the reaction of the Spanish newspapers, remains high: Monti's words were "very inopportune". In Asia Monti will have the opportunity to clarify himself in person with Rajoy, now in a bad mood after the electoral defeat in Andalusia.
A few days before the EU summit which, next 30 March, will have to pronounce on the resources to be allocated to anti-crisis funds, it is clear that this time it is not Italy that is in the crosshairs, but Mariano Rajoy's Spain, guilty of not wanting to aim for a deficit budget no more than 3 per cent. Taking the field against the Madrid government was Olli Rehn, the Finnish commissioner for monetary affairs of the EU, who yesterday argued in an interview with the Financial Times that "the only way for Madrid to regain investor confidence is discipline budget" while any maneuver to accelerate growth is an impracticable shortcut.
The predictions this time turn to the good. Germany, according to the Financial Times, would be, after so many refusals, in favor of integrating the resources of the EFSF (440 billion) with those of the ESM (500 billion). In this way the Community could have sufficient firepower to deter speculative attacks against Spain or Italy. But Berlin sets a condition: the solution should be valid until mid-2013. Afterwards, once the crisis has subsided, the EFSF funds should be returned to the states.
The week opens under the sign of nervousness about Madrid's sovereign debt and the possible contagion effect. The spread between Italian and German securities over ten years stood at 316 points, over five years at 318 and over two years at 218 points. The nervousness is due to the cost of Spanish debt which has returned above 5,5% over ten years and to the difficulties associated with the recovery. The fear of investors is that Spain will not achieve the objectives set with the Eurogroup. In Italy, consumer spending remains weak: according to the economic survey of the Confindustria study centre, the GDP in the first quarter will register a decrease of 1 per cent.
In the spotlight today the board of Impregilo, the company disputed between the Gavio group, 29% strong, and the Salini group, with a share just under 25%, decided to do battle in the assembly.
The reaction of the markets to developments is also under scrutiny Mps case. The Faglia Aleotti owner of the pharmaceutical group Menarini, bought 4% of Banca Mps for 150 million euros. In this way the two Florentine brothers, Lucia and Alberto Giovanni, become the second shareholders of the institution, behind the Foundation, now down to below 41%, and ahead of Axa (2,05%) and Unicoop Firenze (2,42% ).
The go-ahead came at the end of the Foundation's board meeting, the administrative deputation, which examined the progress of the quota disposal plan. At present, the institution - in addition to the 200 million collected from the sale of some equity investments (Cdp, Mediobanca, Sator and F2i) - would have obtained approximately 360 million euros by selling a total of 8,2% of Mps at an average price of 0,376 euros. Of this sum, about 150 come from the Aleottis and the rest from investors who bought MPS packages on the block market. Among these, the brother of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, Edoardo.
Meanwhile, the Fonsai case has now crossed the threshold of the court. On Saturday morning, the prosecutor Luigi Orsi who is in charge of the investigations heard the mayors Marco Spadacini and Benito Marino who together with Antonino D'Ambrosio signed the answer to the questions of the Amber fund which, as a shareholder of Fonsai, asked for an account of the management of the group by the Ligresti. Vittorio De Cesare, chairman of the board of statutory auditors of Premafin, and standing auditor Maria Luisa Mosconi of the holding company that controls the insurance company also listened. In one of the strands of this investigation, Salvatore Ligresti, patron of the group, is being investigated for obstructing the activity of the supervisory bodies.
The report revealed that Fonsai and Milano Assicurazioni paid, between 2003 and 2010, a good 40 million euros to Salvatore Ligresti for consultancy relating to the real estate transactions that ended up in Amber's sights: from the Castello and Villa Ragioneri area projects, to the Isola-via De Castilla, Garibaldi-Repubblica and City Life, and in most cases the contracts with the founder of the group were assigned directly by the managing director without going through the board of directors.
The Stock Exchanges, with a tailspin, closed Friday n positive what was still the worst week since the beginning of the year. After running for more than two and a half months, stocks slowed down and investors monetized their gains. Milan today closed up by 0,21%, in line with Paris (+0,11%), London (+0,16%) and Frankfurt (0,2%), which from January to today recorded the best performance (+20%) The worst stock exchange in the Old Continent is Madrid, which drops almost one percentage point. The Spanish place remains the only one in the red since the beginning of the year with a drop of almost two points. Milan and Paris have gained more than 10% from January to today.
