To describe the current market situation, Bank of America uses a quote from Lenin: "There are decades where nothing happens and weeks are worth decades." The latest confirmation of the exceptional nature of the moment comes this morning from oil. US crude plummets by around 15%, to 15,65 dollars, after hitting a low of 14,4 dollars, a price not seen since March 1999. The collapse, which only partially affects Brent (-1% at 27,6 dollars a barrel) is also linked to the depletion of raw material storage spaces, despite production cuts.
Thus opens a financial week that promises to be very eventful, between political choices (Eurozone in the lead), attempts to return to normality and a rain of quarterly reports that will give a more accurate measure of the economic emergency that will accompany us in the coming months.
RAIN OF AID TO TOKYO AND CHINA
The Tokyo Stock Exchange loses momentum (-1%). The Japanese trade balance for March reports a 12% drop in exports (-16% to the USA), the most significant drop in the last three years. The government has announced a new round of stimuli to support the economy: the aid package rises by another 240 billion, up to 1.100 billion yen (+8%). Each Japanese will receive the equivalent of 850 euros.
The Chinese markets are thwarted. The Shanghai blue chip index lost up to 2,4%, only to react to new stimulus promoted by the central bank and the government. The People's Bank of China cut its key interest rate by twenty basis points to 3,85%. The ministry has anticipated the issuance of a trillion yuan ($140 billion) of new loans.
WALL STREET WANTS NEW MONEY FROM THE WHITE HOUSE
Reopening factories and offices is high on Donald Trump's agenda. Wall Street, swollen but not satisfied with the formidable aid received from the Treasury and the Fed, is awaiting an agreement between the White House and Congress to reinstate the fund (350 billion dollars) to support small businesses already depleted in less than two weeks . The measure could guarantee the prolongation of the rally: the last two weeks have been the best in 82 years for the US stock market.
The future of the S&P500 index marks a slight decline this morning. The dollar is still below par, at 1,08 against the euro, and the T bonds stand at 0,64% in the 1,91-year version (against XNUMX% at the start of the year).
Gold retraces to $1.679 an ounce, retreating from last week's highs of $1.746.
CONTE REITERATES: EUROBOND YES, MES NO
It will be a crucial week for the fate of the Eurozone. There Suddeutsche Zeitung has published a long interview with Giuseppe Conte in which the Italian premier, in view of the Eurozone teleconference summit on Thursday, relaunches the Eurobonds and rejects the use of the Mes: "It has a bad reputation, let's not forget Greece".
ATHENS, SUPPORTED BY THE ECB, ASKS FOR THE BAD BANK
But Athens itself is at the origin of another proposal. The Financial Times reveals that the top management of the ECB, on a proposal from Greece, would have presented to the European Commission the proposal for the creation of a bad bank capable of cleaning up the balance sheets of banks from non-performing loans, an element that risks slowing down the disbursement of loans at a critical moment for the credit. However, the EU Commission does not like the proposal, which is against a clean slate. But the confrontation has begun. One of the sponsors of the bad bank is Andrea Enria, the number one of the Central Bank Supervision.
In Italy, the vote in the Council of Ministers on the budget deviation, to be presented in Parliament to finance the April decree, has been postponed to Wednesday. The new manoeuvre, which in all probability will see the light only towards the end of the month, could allocate up to 70 billion euros.
PMI DATA AND ZEW INDEX COMING SOON
Meanwhile, pending the gradual reopening of economic activity, the markets will look to the leading PMI indicators by Markit, which will offer today a first sign of the pace of recovery in the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and the United States. Other relevant data will follow: the German confidence index Zew (Tuesday), the French one (Wednesday).
On the macro front, producer prices should be followed in Germany and, in the afternoon, the Chicago Fed index. The resumption of negotiations between Great Britain and the EU on Brexit is also planned. Three rounds of interviews are planned.
Another topic of possible cooperation imposed by events concerns agriculture: today, again remotely, the ministers of the G20 meet.
NETFLIX LEADS THE FLIGHT OF TV. VIVENDI'S ACCOUNTS
An important week to evaluate the effects of the closure on consumption and more generally on the choices of the public both in the USA and in Europe. In the spotlight is Netflix's quarterly, undoubtedly one of the winners of the streaming battle, which should have won the battle against Walt Disney, weighed down by the theme park crisis: Mickey Mouse is about to send home a hundred thousand employees.
On the streaming front, AT&T should also follow, thanks to the HBO platform powered by Time Warner products. The accounts of Vivendi arrive in Europe.
TOWARDS THE CONFIRMATION OF DESCALZI. RAIN OF ACCOUNTS IN MILAN
Corporate calendar also nourished for Piazza Affari. The most important appointments are scheduled for the end of the week, when the Eni and Telecom Italia shareholders' meetings will be held. The confirmation of Claudio Descalzi at the helm of Eni, flanked by new president Lucia Calvosa.
But the very dense list also includes the final balances of Moncler, Saipem and Stm for the 23rd, as well as a robust group of medium caps: Saras, Reply, Erg, Caltagirone Editore, Piaggio, Fila, Cembre, Carraro, Geox , Gedi, Massimo Zanetti and Bper. A curiosity: the majority of De'Longhi has announced that he will vote against the resolution already approved in the council. Despite the excellent financial situation, it was finally decided not to pay the dividend.
In addition to Eni and Tim, on Friday there will be the accounts of Brembo, Banca Generali, Technogym, Creval and Amplifon.
