Stock markets ahead, despite the risk of early elections in Germany, possible surprise development of the difficulties of Angela Merkel to create a coalition government. Not even the uncertainty that reigns in Washington in view of the vote on the tax reform raises doubts for the Bull, judging by the advance of the lists in Asia.
At the moment, the fragility of the high yield market does not raise fears, made uneasy by the default of Venezuela, even more by the crisis of the Turkish currency and bonds (the 12,53-year bond rose to XNUMX%). There is no shortage of propellants for the increase: the US super index soars, German cars revise their sales estimates upwards in the face of growing demand on non-EU markets.
Meanwhile, Tencent surpasses Facebook in terms of market value while Alibaba teams up with Auchan to conquer the hegemony of Chinese large-scale distribution.
CHINA TAKES FLIGHT. THE ALIBABA-AUCHAN AXIS IS BORN
Meteo Borsa can thus signal the return of risk appetite. Tokyo is starting to close up: Nikkei index +1%. Positive changes even larger in China, after a start of negotiations in decline. The CSI300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose by 1,3%. Hong Kong (Hang Seng index) is up 1,2%. The big names in insurance are pulling the sprint: Ping An +5,6%, China Insurance +5%.
Seoul (Kospi index) +0,2% and Mumbai (BSE Sensex index) +0,3% are also on positive ground. Sydney +0,3%. The dollar appreciated to 1,173 on the dollar from 1,179 on Friday night. Brent oil is flat at $62,2 a barrel, down 0,8% yesterday. Eni -0,1% Saipem + 0,9%.
TRUMP UNLEASHES ANTITRUST AGAINST ATT-TIME WARNER
Chip and TLC have kicked off Wall Street. Meanwhile, the battle of the century opens on the Antitrust front. The Justice Department has decided to sue the At&t-Time Warner operation, opposed by Donald Trump. "It is an unmotivated and incomprehensible decision", was the harsh reaction of AT&T, which promises a battle in court to demonstrate the interference of the White House on the agency, formally independent. Trump's hostility would be linked to hatred for CNN, but the agency rejects this version. “This merger would do a lot of harm to American consumers. It would translate into higher monthly costs” for television subscriptions and “for other innovative options that are emerging and that consumers are beginning to appreciate,” the release reads.
Wall Street closed in positive territory, even if it lost something in the end: Dow Jones + 0,31%, S&P +0,13%, Nasdaq +0,12%. Fireworks over the semiconductor sector: the sector index surpassed the levels reached in the 2000 bubble. Cavium (+10,8%) climbed to a new record following the offer of rival Marvell (+6,4 %).
SUPER-INDEX OK, BUT WORRY ABOUT THE FLAT CURVE
In October, the super index elaborated by the Conference Board - a barometer of future economic activity in the USA - recorded a stronger increase than expected: +1,2% compared to a consensus of +0,6%.
However, the market remains very skeptical about long-term growth. The yield curve is increasingly flattened, above all because the yield on two-year Treasury bills continues to rise, rising to 1,74%, its highest since 2008. The spread between two years and ten years is 60 basis points, the minimum of last ten years.
Janet Yellen has announced she will step down from the Fed board in February, when she steps down as chairman of the central bank.
MILAN RISES DESPITE COUPON DETAILS
In Paris the headquarters of the EBA, the European banking authority which is moving from London. Beaten in the Dublin draw as well as the solution to the envelopes betrayed Milan, giving Amsterdam the victory in the playoff for the headquarters of the European drug authority. A bitter, indeed grotesque epilogue.
In Piazza Affari, the Ftse Mib index rose by 0,44% taking into account the coupon detachment of six stocks in the main list (impact of 0,22%). The securities in question are: Mediobanca 3,65%, Banca Mediolanum -2,86%, Terna -2,03%, Atlantia -0,70%, Tenaris -0,25% and Recordati +0,63%.
Frankfurt was up 0,2%, recovering losses from the morning thanks to gains from Volkswagen (+3,6%) and Porsche (+3%). Volkswagen has improved its forecast to 2020, due to growing demand for SUVs in emerging markets, such as Brazil and Russia.
DRAGHI: THE RULES ON THE BTP OF THE BANKS DO NOT CHANGE
The rules on Bot and Btp do not touch each other. There is no global agreement to apply the risk weight to government bonds, from which they are exempt today, or a ceiling on their ownership. This was said by the president of the ECB Mario Draghi, adding that the European Union must be cautious with respect to the hypothesis of introducing unilateral rules on the matter.
"There is no consensus for a global agreement on this," Draghi said, speaking to the European Parliament. "If the European Union decides to go it alone, it must be aware that measures like these would put European banks at a competitive disadvantage."
The ECB president also said that “risk reduction and risk sharing should go in parallel… And NPLs are part of this”.
THE SPREAD NARROWS TO 145 POINTS
The BTPs closed higher, in a session of modest variations. The 1,81-year bond closed the session with a yield of 145% with a marginal narrowing of the spread to 0,35 points. The German 0,37-year rate which fluctuated between 2048% and XNUMX% remained almost unchanged. The main appointment on primary is the reopening tomorrow of the thirtieth German anniversary August XNUMX.
Today the program is limited to a maximum of one billion Finnish 4,5-year bonds and short-term Spanish auctions: up to 3 billion on 9 and XNUMX-month maturities.
AIR OF AGREEMENT WITH VIVENDI, MEDIASET FLYS
Mediaset (+5,2%) was the case for the Stock Exchange on Monday. The market gives credence to the anticipation of Repubblica which wrote that the agreement with Vivendi should arrive at the latest within three weeks, before the hearing at the Court of Milan, scheduled for December 19th. The agreement should provide for the French company to drop from the current 28,8% to 5%.
Fininvest will immediately buy only 5% and Mediaset another 6% of treasury shares. The remainder could end up in a blind trust. The agreement also provides for the involvement of Premium in the supply of television products to the joint venture created between Canal Plus and Tim starting from Serie A football matches. Mediobanca has assigned the stock an Outperform rating with a key target of 3,76 euros. The Bloomberg consensus has an average "fundamental" target of 3,23 euros.
Redemption also for Telecom Italia (+1,1%) on the day of the meeting between the CEO Amos Genish and the Minister of Development Carlo Calenda. Mediobanca Securities (outperform, Tp 1,3 euro) thinks that the possible separation of the network with the sale of a minority stake would be an option that would create value.
CREVAL AND MPS REBOUNCE, CARIGE TOUCHES ROCKET
Thrilling swings for the banks. The Valtellinese credit rebounded by 47,67% after the heavy losses recorded in recent sessions, which had led it to lose almost 70% since the announcement of the operation two weeks ago.
Carige it closed down by 37,54%, at 0,09 euro, after having spent almost the entire session in a volatility auction, in view of the hyper-dilutive capital increase from 560 million at the price of 1 cent which should start on Wednesday.
Also up sharply mps (+15,64%), which extends last Friday's gains. Also among the titles in evidence Bpm desk, with a gain of 2,6%, at 2,75 euros. Bper + 1,65%.
ENEL DAY IN LONDON. THE GOAL IS INNOGY
Spotlight on today Enel +0,4%. The group presents the 2018-2020 business plan in London. Yesterday Mediobanca confirmed its neutral rating with a target of 4,30 euro; Rbc reiterates the Sector Perform, target 5,50. The consensus published by Bloomberg has an average target of 5,50 euros.
The meeting will also be an opportunity to ask for confirmation of Reuters' anticipation that the company is negotiating the acquisition of the German Innogy, the utility controlled by Rwe active in renewable energies with a capitalization of approximately 22 billion euros.
ANOTHER LEAP FORWARD BY STM
Stm +1,18% canceled the initial loss and closed at 20,57 euros, after having reached a minimum of 19,90 euros. Yesterday morning Kepler-Cheuvreux had reduced the recommendation to Reduce da Hold, however raising the target price to 21 dollars (about 17,90 euros) from 17,80 dollars. The new target implies a drop in the price of around 12%. In the late morning came the news that S&P raised its outlook to positive from stable, confirming its BBB- rating.
Undertone Ferragamo (-1,1%) on which Citi analysts revised their estimates in the light of the quarterly quarter considered disappointing and lowered the price target to 21 euros from 22, while maintaining the "neutral" recommendation to customers.
Buzzi however, it closed up 3,2%. Deutsche Bank raised its target price to 28,10 euros from 26,50 euros (potential upside +20%).
BANCA IMI PROMOTES CARRARO AND CREMONINI
Consistent purchases on Carraro (+13,04% to 4,37 euros). Banca Imi raised the target price on the stock to 6,2 from 3,8 euro, confirming the buy recommendation in light of the constant improvement in the market outlook.
Banca Imi also promoted Cremonini (+2,63% to 21,5 euros) from hold to add, with the target price rising from 22,8 to 23,9 euros. The target price improves to take into account the updated multiples and the valuation based on the discounted cash flow.
