Il Real Estate Market it has now come out of the crisis of the last seven years but now the recovery will be slow and full of pitfalls. This was revealed by the Observatory on the Real Estate Market edited by Nomisma, presented today in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo Private Banking.
According to reports from the study by the Bolognese think tank, the first signs of recovery that had already appeared starting from the second half of 2014 were strengthened in 2015 also thanks to a certainly more favorable macroeconomic framework, even if these are not striking dynamics. For a real recovery of the sector we will have to wait for 2017 when house prices return to consistent growth (+1,6%) and sales will exceed 500.
2015 should close, according to Nomisma, with house prices down 2,8% and trades at 442.546. In 2016, prices should record a very slight recovery (+0,1%) and sales will reach a threshold of 478.590.
And precisely for this reason Nomisma underlines how the recovery will be difficult and slow. The Bolognese institute estimates that it will be necessary to recover pre-crisis per capita GDP levels wait for the 2026, against an annual growth of 1,5%.
In any case, Nomisma has recorded that the change in the 'sentiment' indicators and in the real ones had an immediate impact on the real estate sector, leading to a substantial increase in the manifestations ofinterest in buying a property. But Nomisma points out that for 75% of Italian families the opportunity to purchase a house necessarily passes through the financial support of the banks. In the report, the institute also underlines that the undoubtedly favorable macroeconomic conditions are absolutely not sufficient "to fuel an unassisted recovery path" despite the fact that the banking system's response to the sharp increase in requests has not been lacking. Nomisma defines the increase in disbursements by banks as "striking" but the numbers are, says Nomisma, "far lower than the data released even by authoritative institutions during the year".
Subrogations and replacements on total mortgages have seen their incidence go from 7,5% (2014) to 26% (2015), reducing the net support to the real estate sector. The share of transactions without recourse to credit fell below 45%, against an overall increase in the residential market (2014/2015 horizon) of 6%. The rediscovered credit channel is therefore – for Nomisma – “the main driver behind the optimistic expectations of a recovery”.
Specifically, the capital disbursed to households for mortgages in the first six months of 2015, gross of portability initiatives, it was 17,3 billion euros with an increase of 53 percentage points over the first half of 2014 and 34 over the previous six months. Forecasts for the second part of the year amount to 21 billion euro.
