THE BULL'S SLEDGE IS LOADED WITH GIFTS. BUT ATHENS AND CRUDE ARE LURKING
“There is no reason to be pessimistic” say the experts in chorus. Low oil, crushed interest rates, liquidity never so abundant, and even the dollar is preparing its Christmas presents (the euro is at 1,22). Everything converges towards a positive 2015. Starting from the Anglo-Saxon markets: sales of tablets and smartphones in the United Kingdom rise by 36 percent. This is how Websim experts unbalance themselves at the start of the shortest week of the year.
Mark time Tokyo, closed tomorrow for holidays. On the other Stock Exchanges: Hong Kong +1,2%, Sydney +1,8%. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 has posted an increase of 3,4% in the last five sessions, the best week since October. The leap (+5%) was concentrated in the last three days, following the FOMC statement. All the stock exchanges of the old continent rose on Friday: Paris +3,2%, Madrid +2,2%, Frankfurt +2%. The leap in Athens was significant: +4,6%.
In Milan, the FtseMib index closed last week gaining 2% (Friday -0,4%) after falling by 7,4% the previous week and returned exactly to the level of the beginning of 2014. The only clouds concern Greece and oil. In an attempt to unblock the political impasse, over the weekend Prime Minister Antonis Samaras proposed a government reshuffle after the agreement on the name of the president Time is running out, however: we vote in parliament tomorrow and on December 29, then the word will go to the polls. The second reason for uncertainty, of course, concerns crude oil.
BTP, THE SPREAD HUNTING FOR RECORDS. NEGATIVE 3 MONTH BOT
2015 for the bond markets begins today. Indeed, the Ministry of Economy and Finance communicates the amount and characteristics of the BOTs and CTZs that will be issued on 29 December, corresponding to the key day of the Greek presidential elections.
Meanwhile, a suspicious calm reigns despite some potential dangers: the thrilling end of the year on the front of Athens awaiting the vote on the markets for the new president and the risk of early elections; the grand maneuvers in view of the ECB meeting on 22 January, probably decisive for the European Qe. Finally, the tensions on the emerging market front which could cause a new storm on the markets.
Nothing for now serves to slow down the decline in yields. The 0,60-year German Bund is at historic lows below 2%. The BTP yields less than 1,7%, the Spanish Bono 8,3%. The 0,05th anniversary of Athens yields 0,23% in the midst of a political crisis with epochal implications. Singular the reaction of the Bots soon. During the week, the three-month bond slipped into negative territory with a yield of -0,17% against +0,13% the week before. A phenomenon that is striking because, in the meantime, similar Spanish securities have fallen from XNUMX to XNUMX%, much less. The explanation probably lies in the fact that a large part of the money collected by Italian banks with the TLTROs was parked in government bonds rather than in loans to companies.
ILO, ARABIA INSISTS: IT DOESN'T CUT IT. GOLDMAN PROMOTES ENI
The second reason for uncertainty concerns the price of oil. Saudi Energy Minister al Naimi has toughened his position: even if other countries, inside or outside OPEC, cut production, Ryiad would not follow suit. Despite this diktat, the rebound of oil at the end of the week bodes well for the benefit of Oil stocks. Brent, which yesterday had lost 3,1%, recovered by 1,8% to 60,3 dollars a barrel, Wti to 56 dollars (+3,6%).
On Wall Street, Exxon rose 8,1%, Chevron +10,1%. At Piazza Affari Eni recovered 2,4% on Friday. Sharp rise of Saipem +4,6%, promoted by Goldman Sachs in its Conviction Buy List. The last time American analysts gave a positive opinion dates back to the spring of 2013 and at the time Saipem was worth 22 euros. Among the reasons given to justify the change of recommendation is the fact that the risk of a capital increase decreases after the six-legged dog has officially removed Saipem from the market.
BANKS, S&P AND QE WEIGHT
The banks have been penalized by the rumors according to which the ECB is studying a formula for Quantitative easing in which the weaker countries, which would earn more from the government bond purchase program by the European central bank, will also have to bear greater risks and costs.
The news was not welcome: Unicredit fell by 1,8%, Understanding -2,4% MontePaschi -4,1%. Banco Popular lost 2,8%, Pop.Milan -0,4% Ubi -1,7%. In the spotlight remains Monte dei Paschi di Siena black jersey of the FTSEMib. The Tuscan bank fell by 4,17% to 0,4983 euros. In the accounts for the fourth quarter of 2014 there would be new provisions arriving for the Sienese bank. Among the insurance Generali -1% UnipolSai + 0,1%.
SEAT TRYES AGAIN: NEW SHAREHOLDERS, CREDITS BECOME CAPITAL
Seat Pagine Gialle rises again for the umpteenth time. Today the company will debut on the stock exchange in its new guise after the conversion of debts in the hands of bondholders and bank loans. On Friday, the old shares plunged by 77,78% to 0,0002 euros. The share in the hands of the old shareholders will be 0,25% against 99,75% of former bondholders and credit institutions. In particular, each euro of credit is worth 596 new shares (the banks will thus have 45,1%) while each euro of bondholders is worth 466 shares (54,6% of the capital). Capitalization should reach 200 million (against 10 on Friday).
TLC ON THE MOVE TODAY F2I MOVES ON THE WIND TOWERS
Warm advice today for the fund participated by the CDP. The board meets under the guidance of Renato Ravanelli for the choice between the offers for a share in the airport assets (Turin, Naples, Linate and Malpensa). In the race are Ardian, Deutsche Bank and the Australians of Ifm. No less important is the TLC dossier. Today the board should present its offer for the Wind towers.
