Expectations are rising for Ben Bernanke's moves, who will communicate his decisions at 18.30pm. Will it be the green light for new quantitative easing? After the recent run of the price lists (+8,5% Milan in the rally of a few days ago), the European stock exchanges close cautiously below parity while on Wall Street the indices are slightly moved: the Dow Jones rises by 0,20% and the Nasdaq by 0,29%. Apple rises by 1,18% following the presentation of the iPhone5. Milan loses 1,07%, Frankfurt 0,45%, Paris 1,18%. London goes against the trend +0,65%.
The Btp-bund spread closes at 345 points and a yield of 5% after nearly 450 points. But the Btp auction successfully closed the 3-year Btp auction: the government bonds were placed with a yield down to 2,65% from 4,65%. Placed the entire amount of 4 billion with a demand of 1,49 times the amount. The Bono-bund spread closes at 416 points. According to the financier George Soros, Spain will ask for "very limited aid" from the European Union so as not to end up under the constant surveillance of the troika", "otherwise there would be a sacrifice of sovereignty which would be politically fatal". As regards the anti-spread plan developed by the Eurotower, the governor of Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco claims that the conditions for the purchase of bonds by the ECB do not concern "a conditionality linked to measures, but to processes along one direction". The euro remains above 1,29 against the dollar supported by the yes of the German Constitutional Court to the ESM. Gold climbs to $1,735 an ounce.
Uncertainty about the real situation in Greece is still high. According to Thanos Catsambas, director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in which he represents Greece who gave an interview to the WSJ, Greece will need further funding. Athens' denial is ready: Greece does not need a third aid package, but those envisaged so far are sufficient, the next tranche of which is expected in October after the Troika's approval, said Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras.
Worse than expected US data on producer prices (+1,7% in August against expectations of +1%) and on claims for unemployment benefits, which jumped by 15 last week to 382 to its highest level in two months as Hurricane Isaac hit many Gulf Coast states last month.
Meanwhile today the OECD certified the global slowdown: the quarterly GDP of the G20 area slowed to +0,6% in the second quarter compared to 0,7% in the first. But the situation is diversified by area: if China recovers, there is still a contraction for the United Kingdom (-0,5%) and for Italy (-0,8%). Today, the ECB's monthly bulletin also confirmed the decrease in the 2012 and 2013 GDP estimates for Euroland and affirmed that unemployment will rise further in the short term. And on Italy we read: "An incomplete recovery would at best allow the debt/GDP ratio to stabilize at current levels and would not provide an adequate safety margin in the event of adverse macroeconomic trends". Confindustria has sounded the alarm for consumption: in 2012 per capita values will record “the most serious decline in the post-war period (-3,6%) and in 2013 they will return to 1997 levels, household spending will decrease by 3,2% in 2012 and by 1% in 2013.
In Piazza Affari, Campari +1,01%, Ferragamo +0,83%, Luxottica +0,81%, Stm +0,50%, Fiat +0,42% are among the best stocks at 4,734 euros per share. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the ingot is worth almost double the current stock market prices: the target price has been raised to 8,5 euros from 7,8. This is the explanation: the Stock Exchange is wrong in valuing Fiat because it still considers it a European manufacturer, while thanks to Chrysler the exposure of revenues to the Old Continent is limited, lower than that of other manufacturers; furthermore, Fiat "should break even in Europe in 2014", while in the same period Peugeot, Opel and Ford Europe will continue to record losses.
At the bottom of the Finmeccanica basket -5,35% while a record-breaking marriage in the European defense sector between EADS and BAE-Systems worth 48 billion dollars is about to be consummated, "The announcement of talks for a possible integration of the activities of EADS and BAE Systems represents a decisive step in the process consolidation of the defense industry at European level – stated Finmeccanica which maintains consolidated partnership relations with both companies on an industrial, technological and commercial level, “which will continue with the new aggregate”. At the bottom of the Ftse Mib also A2A -3,62%, Bpm -3,51%, Mps -3,34%, Unicredit -3,04%
