"If there are no serious relapses of the epidemic, the crisis exit process will take place on two levels: the recovery of question and the improvement of company balance sheets”. That's what he claims Alessandro Fugnoli, strategist of Kairos, in thelast episode of the monthly column On the fourth floor.
“In particular – specifies Fugnoli – the recovery of the request it will come above all on the consumption front and will also be helped by the arrears accumulated in these two months, so that in some sectors the demand will be even higher than the average, while in others, such as tourism and airlines, the recovery will be slower".
As it regards instead company budgets, “have been severely damaged in these two months – continues the analyst – and recovery will have to take place in terms of recapitalisation, new debt issue or existing debt restructuring”.
On the side of financial markets, according to Kairos' strategist, “unlike 2008-2009, in this phase all segments have resumed functioning almost normally and the levels at which assets are traded have recovered from their lows, so as to encourage investors to stay or return to the market. And all this is very important to allow companies to restart without continuing to burn cash".
For the process to continue,"markets must remain buoyant – explains Fugnoli again – Not necessarily continuously rising, but they will not have to be very volatile and above all they will have to demonstrate that they have the most solid downward support possible. These conditions exist for now and we can reasonably assume that they will be maintained thanks to the intervention of the central banks, which are strongly focusing on corporate bonds, a very interesting sector today”.
Le market trend forecasts are therefore of "laterality with a tendency to recover - concludes Fugnoli - We should not expect great things from the stock exchanges, because the multiples on the profits of 2021 are already quite high, but the most reassuring aspect is that we should not see particularly worrying falls. They remain interesting their and, in terms of currencies, the yen, which is very underrated, the dollar, which should remain stable, e the Swiss franc. So on the one hand the defensive assets, on the other the cyclical ones, whose recovery will come a little later, but it will come”.
