Some analysts judged it too ambitious. And the market hit the stock hard (-9,42% after a suspension). "We have taken the estimates of the IMF and other bodies as a reference, for us it is sustainable, it means returning to a dimension in which we were already two years ago", assures the management of Mediobanca. Let's give analysts time to digest the numbers, added the CEO Alberto Nagel, recalling that the stock had "much outperformed" in the last two weeks". There was a sell on news and buy on expectation reaction today,” he said. On the other hand, the market, and speculative positions, had already had the opportunity to take a stand from the beginning of the week with the forecasts of the plan circulated in the press.
And the plan that was presented today in the rooms of Piazzetta Cuccia substantially confirmed the new direction taken of "less holding and more banking". Mediobanca will in fact reduce its exposure to the equity segment by 2 billion, getting rid of a large part of its equity investments (from Rcs to Telco and Pirelli with the exception of Generali of which 3% will be sold) which will end up among the "securities available for sale", being thus started the sale (to be done during the course of the plan). An operation which will involve net write-downs of 400 million and which will lead to the closing of the 2012-2013 financial year at the end of June with a loss of around 200 million. In fact, of all the listed equity investments, only Pirelli generates a capital gain. "We want to recover full availability of the shareholdings quickly" and "we will leave the syndicate agreements" but "the exit will be agreed with the other shareholders", specified Nagel. Mediobanca will raise a total of 1,5 billion euro from the disposals. The resources which, together with those deriving from the optimization of assets, will be used to develop the banking business. With a precise philosophy in all its various activities: remaining a tailor's house that provides tailor-made solutions, focusing on specialized banking businesses (with the Cib, Retail and Wealth management divisions) and bringing out those banking activities where human skills and innovation technology are the main drivers. And a very clear strategy: focus on growth, profitability and greater discipline in the allocation of capital. With a focus on foreign markets, especially for the Cib division, in countries such as Mexico and China. Possible "small acquisitions", in private banking and in particular in Switzerland. And the birth of Maan, the Mediobanca alternative asset management platform dedicated to corporate customers (which will account for 15% of the group's revenues in the fifth year, an estimate not included in the plan numbers).
The main financial objectives for 2016 are thus a Roe of 10-11%, a core tier 1 (Basel 3) of 11-12%, with a payout of 40%, bank revenues of 2,1 billion (Cagr of 10%) and a cost of risk at 150 basis points.
On the other hand, there is no more time or desire to "run after the various Ligresti", say sources inside the bank (Nagel had been heard by the magistrates some time ago on the case of the famous papello linked to the rescue of Fonsai by Unipol ). And Nagel himself confirmed: “Being associated with minority stakes means distracting the bank's management and brand from the core business”. At the same time, reducing equity means reducing the volatility of results which the devaluation of equity has negatively affected in recent years”.
Different chapter for Generali, whose stake will be reduced from 13% to 10%, an operation put in place to meet the capital requirements required by Basel 3. But which today will be carried out in a different context and perspectives. In the light of a subsidized temporary regime for the next ten years (talks are underway with Bankitalia but Mediobanca is confident of a positive outcome), the impact in terms of percentage points of Generali's 3% on capital strength ratios may be reduced significantly (from 400 basis points to 130), putting the bank in the position of no longer being "forced" to sell immediately. In any case, the management has decided to carry out a sale with a view to a change of skin and to be ready for the appointment in ten years when basel 3, if confirmed in the current structure, will no longer allow this facilitation. The result is that running can be avoided. Risking having to sell out. While the Sovereign Fund (SWF) hypothesis appears on the horizon for the lion. “Mediobanca's sale of 3% of Generali may not necessarily be on the market. I'm not saying this because there is a hypothesis but finding a partner to help the development of the Lion of Trieste in some geographical areas and who supports governance could be part of the support function that Mediobanca wants to give to the sale of the share anyway". known as Nagel, CEO of PiazzettaCuccia. When asked whether the purchaser of the stake could be Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, he replied that 'the strategic fund has a stake and plans to sell it. I had in mind more a sovereign wealth fund or an institutional entity from a high-growth area, such as Asia”. Furthermore, the sale of the stake will have to wait for a new valuation of the stock which "will take place when the plan proposed by the management" of the lion is "more advanced".
Furthermore, Nagel reiterated that "Mediobanca has not made a capital increase since 1998 and does not need one" while to understand if and how the dividend will be, we will have to wait until September depending on the capital indexes and the orientation of the board. Furthermore, apart from Fondiaria forced by the Antitrust, Nagel reported that he has no indications of shareholders who want to leave the Syndicate Agreement.
