MEDIOBANCA, THE BIG GAMES TAKE OFF
AFTER THE WINNING BLITZ ON FONSAI RIGHTS
Playtime is over. Mediobanca's order, on the eve of the board of directors in Piazzetta Cuccia dedicated to information on the "Nagel case" (the famous papello signed together with Salvatore Ligresti), reigns once again over the virtual precincts of Piazza Affari. The evidence?
First of all the blitz on Fonsai rights. I didn't have the time to make fun of the purchases with the dropper of the first day of the auction (975 in all) and here was the surprise announcement: all the remaining 1.153.386 rights were placed at the symbolic price of 0,0002 euro, which gives the right to subscribe 31,7% of the ordinary share capital of Fonsai.
This morning, 1.153.386 rights were sold at the symbolic price of 0,0002 euros, in addition to the 975 rights sold in yesterday's auction.
In two sessions, therefore, the quantity of rights (1.154.361) that had not been exercised at the end of the offer which closed on August 31,7st was exhausted, valid for the subscription of Fonsai ordinary shares equal to 291% of the shares offers, for a value of around XNUMX million.
It will soon be understood who, in addition to Unipol which said it was willing to proceed with the rights auction to subscribe another 4,9%, responded to the appeal of Mediobanca and Unicredit, co-leader of the consortium. At these prices, moreover, Fonsai appears at a discount compared to Generali, which may have convinced more than one institutional investor or private manager looking for bargains.
What is certain is that the operation is a good tonic for the appeal of Piazzetta Cuccia, seriously affected by the summer events: the vicissitudes of the tug of war with the Ligresti family, culminating in the great mess of the letter signed by Nagel together with don Savior; the "tear" with Giovanni Perissinotto, abruptly dismissed from the leadership of Generali; the reverse suffered in Impregilo by the Gavio group, historical customer of Mediobanca; the same attacks on Marco Tronchetti Provera in Camfin, Prelios and in Pirelli itself by the shareholder Malacalza, as if to confirm that, once the centrality of the investment bank in the Italian financial panorama has ceased, possible incursions that were once unthinkable have become possible.
Finally, above all, the discussions on Mediobanca's future strategy, which could kick off with the spin-off of the banking business from the holding company which includes Generali, Telco, Rcs. The denial of the investment bank was of no use, as happens in these cases. Also because, in the last week, as if to confirm the rumors, the RCS title has taken off (+135% in six sessions).
In reality, Consob's investigations have ascertained that RCS's movements are the result of trading made possible by the tiny free float rather than maneuvers by shareholders intent on conquering new positions in via Solferino. The same probably also applies to the surge in Camfin, Pirelli's safe, a share that has skyrocketed thanks to the purchases of those who want to ride the tug of war between the two litigants, who tomorrow will face each other (probably hard-nosed) in the board of directors of Gpi, the box that controls Camfin (which also controls Pirelli and Prelios). Short-term operations, in short, made possible by the absence on the scene of the main players, committed to defining the autumn scene behind the scenes.
Now, the wait is over. On the eve of the autumn premiere in Piazzetta Cuccia, right next to La Scala, the summer anomalies died down: both Rcs and Camfin fell back by an abundant 11 percent. Confirming that no one wants to remain with the match in hand when the "tenors" of the situation enter the field.
We will see tomorrow, however, if the various tenors will be up to the situation. The market expects Nagel and Renato Pagliaro to give adequate answers to expectations, outlining the future course of the most important player in Italian private finance. In this context, the hypothesis that Nagel could announce, to begin with, the start of the partial disengagement from the Lion of Trieste is gaining ground: in fact, to reduce the "consumption of capital" in view of Basel, the bank could decrease from 13,2 .10 to XNUMX%.
For now it's just one hypothesis among many. The disappointment would be great if we limited ourselves to confirming the "statu quo" of guardianship of shareholdings that require dynamic management, not a shareholder detaching coupons. As a report by Intermonte noted, a possible spin-off “would make the stock appreciate because it would bring out the value of the banking business today valued at zero by the market given that only listed equity investments represent 90% of Mediobanca's current capitalisation”.
In short, the interest is high. After the setbacks in July, Mediobanca arrives refreshed at the board meeting. In the last month, thanks to the many rumors, the title of Piazzetta Cuccia has achieved a leap of more than 50 percent, including today's progress of more than 3 percent.
