Stock markets' rally continues this morning in Asia, but futures point to a cautious start in Europe. The Chinese markets' rebound was helped by the 25 basis point cut in the cost of seven-day repurchase agreements, which has been unchanged since 2015. Furthermore, the central bank has injected new liquidity (26 billion dollars) into the markets, already buoyed by the news , relaunched by the Chinese newspapers, of a positive turning point in the talks with the US.
The CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen was up 0,7%, while the yuan weakened slightly to 7,01. Hong Kong is also making progress (+1%), despite the fact that the city is experiencing dramatic hours: the feeling is growing that a military intervention by Beijing is now imminent.
Catapults and arrows have made an appearance in what is now the battle of Hong Kong between the police and students who have rejected the order to leave the university after the interruption of the courses. An officer was wounded in the leg by an arrow fired from a crossbow as officers were rained Molotov cocktails hurled from catapults.
ALIBABA LAUNCHES NEW OFFERING, SALE TOKYO
The revolt, however, does not slow Alibaba's plans: on Wednesday the e-commerce giant will launch a public offer for the sale of 500 million shares in the former British colony.
Tokyo's Nikkei also rose (+0,49%). On the other hand, the stock markets of South Korea, Indonesia and Australia fell by half a point, while the Indian stock market remained on par.
ARAMCO: ONLY 26 BILLION FROM THE IPO
North Sea oil remains at its eight-week high at 63,6 dollars a barrel pending the next meeting of producers in Vienna on 6 December. If delegates fail to agree on the cuts, Brent could very quickly return to $50 a barrel, Bernstein wrote this morning. In this turbulent climate, the IPO of Aramco is about to kick off, one of the most important stock market transactions ever. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia finally lifted the veil on the valuation of the oil giant: 1.700 billion dollars, less than Prince Mohammed Bin Salman had hoped (2.000 billion). The IPO on 1,5% of the capital will still make it possible to raise 25-26 billion dollars.
Meanwhile, Iran, like Hong Kong, is also at the center of popular protest. In a hundred cities, as well as Tehran, yesterday there were demonstrations and looting of shops and banks after the decision to raise fuel taxes by 50%: the regime cut off Internet channels to prevent connections between demonstrators (over a thousand the arrests).
LUCA DI MEO TOWARDS THE GUIDE OF RENAULT
In a less dramatic climate, the markets are about to experience a perhaps decisive week on the tariff issue. Apart from the confrontation between China and the USA, the hottest dossier regards the car. After several postponements, Donald Trump is expected to make a decision on any tariffs to be imposed on European cars or announce a truce.
The data on registrations in the Old Continent will arrive tonight. Meanwhile, it seems that the new managing director of Renault will be an Italian: Luca De Meo, current number one of Seat, is the first choice of the shareholders to succeed Thierry Bolloré.
ILVA AND ALITALIA "GUESTS" AT THE CDP PARTY
The car numbers will be the first in a long series of statistics that will measure the state of health of European and Italian industry in particular: from today to Friday, data on turnover and orders in the Bel Paese will be released, as well as on the trend of gross domestic product and on German producer prices. The trend in consumer confidence in the Eurozone should also be followed. The week will close with the PMI manufacturing indexes relating to the economic situation in France, Germany and the entire euro area.
The signals on the trend of the industrial situation, starting from the dramatic situation of Ilva, will frame the parliamentary discussion on the budget maneuver for 2020 with the more than a thousand amendments expected in the Senate. But the Taranto crisis, as well as the Alitalia case, will loom over today's celebrations for the 170th anniversary of the CDP, in the presence of President Sergio Mattarella.
FED AND ECB MINUTE, LAGARDE'S DEBUT
In terms of central banks, the publication of the minutes of the Fed and the ECB should be followed during the week. In Frankfurt, however, the spotlights will be on Christine Lagarde's first public intervention.
OVER 21 BILLION COUPONS: THE LAST EXCHANGES TODAY
Piazza Affari seeks consolation with the latest dividends a lucky harvest: today the coupons of Mediobanca (0,47 euro), Poste Italiane (0,0154 down payment), Recordati (0,48 down payment), Tenaris (0,13 down payment) and Terna (down payment 0,0842). Outside the main list, the coupon of Banca Mediolanum (0,21 down payment), Coima Res (0,1 down payment) and Danieli (0,15 for ordinary, 0,17 savings).
All that is missing is the Stm advance dividend, which will be distributed in late December. An almost definitive balance can therefore be made: the companies in Piazza Affari have returned around 21 billion euros to their shareholders, a significant increase compared to the 19 billion a year ago. The average dividend yield was 3,5%, in line with other markets.
The prospects for the coming year are positive: with the agreement between FCA and PSA (to be concluded definitively by 2020) 5,5 billion extra dividends will arrive in the pockets of the shareholders of the Italian-American group.
MEDIASET/VIVENDI: THE AGREEMENT BY TOMORROW?
In the spotlight Mediaset awaiting the possible (but not obvious) agreement to close the bitter dispute with Vivendi. The judge has given until Friday for an agreement, but an extension is not excluded. Fininvest offered the French group 2,77 euros per share, i.e. the same conditions offered to the other shareholders, one euro less than the book value of the share in Vivendi's financial statements. But bringing the parties closer together would be the waiver of ongoing legal disputes. The Peninsula fund will liquidate 20% of the share in Vivendi. Between today and tomorrow there could be the decisive turning point.
TREVI, THE COURT SAYS NO
Very high voltage seat today for Trevi Finanziaria. On Friday, the court of Forlì rejected the debt restructuring agreement reached with creditors. Company's reply: we will appeal.
HP-XEROX, THERE IS NO AGREEMENT. TOAST FOR BEAUJOLAIS
Over the weekend, HP's board unanimously rejected Xerox's $22-per-share offer but left the door open to a "potential combination."
After the parade of quarterly reports on Wall Street, there is little to report on the accounts front. There will therefore be time to celebrate the success of the Beaujolais Nouveau (and of the Novelli of our house) on Tuesday.
