The 2026 Budget is coming. According to the timetable established by the Government, the budget law should arrive this evening in the Council of Ministers, along with the draft budget document to be approved and sent to Brussels. But while there's no doubt about the timing of the latter, the budget could be delayed by a few days. The reason? The €16 billion measure, the lightest since 2014 when Enrico Letta was in charge of the government, needs certain coveragesThe State Accounting Office has been very clear: if every single expenditure item is not covered, there will not even be approval. And so the minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, who yesterday, meeting with the employers' associations, defined the document as "still open", is looking for every single euro to guarantee the coverage of the main measures: from cut in the personal income tax rate to 33% for incomes up to 50 euros, up to the selective sterilization of the increase in the retirement age, from the soft scrapping of pensions to healthcare costs.
Calculator in hand, approximately 9,5 billion should be raised thanks to spending cuts (of the ministries above all, but also through a remodulation of the appropriations); others 2,3 billion will come from the increase in the planned deficit compared to the trend deficit. Another four billion must be found. And this is where the banks come into play. Negotiations between the government and the Italian Banking Association (ABI) are still ongoing. The goal is to define the amount of contributions that credit institutions will have to pay to "help the country" and reach a mutually agreed-upon solution "without disruption." The problem is that, in addition to a new intervention on DTAs, deferred tax assets, already a key focus of last year's budget, are also needed to raise resources. the Government is also reportedly considering other options.
Budget: new hypothesis on banks
Let's start with the (almost certainties). In the Budget there will be a new postponement – after the one established last year – of the deductions of deferred tax assets, the deferred tax assets (DTA), that is, tax credits that banks can account for in their balance sheets to reduce future taxes. A carbon-copy intervention that could guarantee approximately 2,5 billion. The problem? It's not enough. For this reason, in recent days the idea of involve insurance companies too which in turn could somehow give relief to the state coffers.
But there is also another measure on the table: the reduction of the rate relating to the tax on extra profits from 40% to 26% of 2023, the one the banks never paid. Let's take a step back: at the time, the government established a 40% rate on the increase in bank interest margins for 2022 and 2023 due to the interest rate hikes implemented by the ECB to stem inflation. At the same time, it was established that banks that had set aside reserves equal to 2,5 times the tax amount could also waive their obligation. All institutions chose this second option.
With the 2026 Budget, the government would have decided to reduce the rate needed to free up reserves to 26%, equal to 6,2 billion. A trick that would allow the State to collect 1,6 billion, to which would be added the 26% already paid on dividends. Total: 2,8 billion. "The institutions that did not pay the extra-profit tax last year would now be incentivized to (re)transform the reserve into dividends," he summarizes. RepublicFinally, by adding this revenue to the deferral of tax deductions for the DTA, the government could reach the nest egg needed for the budget.
ABI: "Contribution in the same vein as 2024"
Meanwhile, the ABI executive committee, which met yesterday, unanimously approved "to continue on an extraordinary basis with the multi-year contributions to the State Budget, in the same logic agreed last year, for the revitalization of the economy and for social solidarity." This is stated in a statement from ABI, specifying that the board of directors unanimously approved the report by director Marco Elio Rottigni, who had been charged with "investigating last year's agreement on the banks' additional contribution to the State Budget for the revitalization of the economy."
