Oil at a seven-year high, over $96, and natural gas is growing again. Asian stock markets in the red, futures herald a difficult start for the stock exchanges. Winds of war are blowing over Ukraine freezing the markets, shaken by the risk of a dramatic energy crisis. A week of very high tension is kicking off, punctuated by diplomatic activity.
Spotlight on Scholz's mission to Moscow
Today the spotlights are on German Chancellor Olav Scholz's mission to Moscow, in the hope that the German premier will succeed where Macron and Johnson failed. At the border with Ukraine there are reportedly 130.000 Russian soldiers, thirty thousand more than those indicated by US intelligence a few days ago. Russia continues to deny plans to invade the neighboring state and repeats that Washington has not yet responded to requests for clarification on NATO's role in Eastern Europe.
While awaiting developments, operators stay away from risk as much as possible.
Tokyo dives, Eurostoxx -1,5%
Tokyo's Nikkei loses 2% in the final session. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -0,7%. Hong's Hang Seng -1,3%. Futures on the Eurostoxx 50 recorded a decline of 1,5%.
Yields on the ten-year T-bond rose to 1,958%. The dollar settles down, appreciating sharply on Friday against most currencies. Euro-dollar unchanged.
In addition to gas and oil, raw materials are on fire, especially nickel and aluminum, up by more than 2% this morning in Asia. Russia is one of the big producers of these two metals.
After Friday's rally (+1,7%), gold is slightly down, at 1.854 dollars an ounce.
Debt/GDP, Italy better than expected
The winds of war that continue to blow from Ukraine complicate the picture of the European economy, which is already grappling with the problems hindering recovery. However, the emergency could translate into a truce for the ECB between the hawks who are demanding interest rate interventions already in the coming months and the doves, who exclude moves before December and who can claim part of the credit for the brilliant performance of Italian public finances: the report debt/GDP in 2021 fell from about 156% at the end of 2020 to 150%, a level much lower than expected at the beginning of last year which, said the governor Ignazio Visco, "clearly shows the importance of growth economy for the pursuit of a gradual reduction of the debt burden". Too bad that the Ukraine effect risks canceling the positive effect on the spread.
The rate hike at the center of the G20
The appointments and numerous economic data of the week fit into this picture. On Thursday 17 and Friday 18 February, the finance ministers and central bankers of the G-20 will meet for the first time this year in Jakarta. In the foreground is the prospect of rising bond yields and a tightening of interest rate policy.
Today Christine Lagarde will present the ECB's annual report. But the most awaited event is the publication of the Fed's minutes on Thursday. During the week, various governors of the US central bank will take the field to anticipate the meaning of the decisions expected for 16 March.
The Zew and US consumption are arriving, the accounts of Wal-Mart and Nestlé
On the data front, Eurozone Industrial Production will be in evidence today, followed by the region's Preliminary GDP tomorrow. Also pay attention to the Zew index (Tuesday) and the monthly bulletin of the Central Bank.
In the US we look at the trend of consumption, just to verify the impact of inflation on the behavior of Americans. Wal-Mart's accounts should be followed today, a valuable indicator for the trend in US consumption.
Among the budgets of the week also Airbnb. The calendar of the Big Europeans is packed: Airbus, Allianz, Glencore, Heineken, Kraft Heinz and Nestlé.
Unicredit/Bpm, pending takeover bid. Bper lands in Carige
In Piazza Affari the attention will be entirely on the banking sector. Operators waited in vain over the weekend for the launch of Unicredit's takeover bid on Banca Bpm, flying by an abundant 9% on Friday. But the wait isn't over: the spotlights are on tomorrow's board meeting of the Bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti, dedicated to the bank's accounts. Judging by the reactions received at the Assiom Forex Congress over the weekend, operators consider the possible takeover bid a sensible move on a strategic level. But the surge in Bpm stock (+24% during the week) suggests the risk of a very costly battle, which could jeopardize Unicredit's profitability.
Meanwhile, a brick should be laid during the day for the construction of the future third pole: the interbank guarantee fund will transfer control of Banca Carige to Bper. Possible movements also on Monte Paschi after the minister Daniele Franco reiterated the hypothesis of a future partnership for the institute.
Telecom, the Labriola plan is underway
The Telecom Italia board of directors on the update of the industrial plan, which will be presented to the market on March 2nd, and Banca Generali's investment day complete the picture of an intense Monday.
The Generali board of directors on governance is expected on Wednesday. Three new directors should be co-opted, in view of the renewal of the board which will expire with the next assembly on 29 April. Also arriving this week are the preliminary balance sheet data of numerous listed companies, including Autogrill, Eni, Interpump and Tenaris.
