Here it is again, the timeless charm of gold. The yellow metal broke the technical barrier of 1.845 dollars an ounce this morning, up to 1.852, the highest in three months, taking revenge on bitcoin, down 12%, to just over 43 thousand dollars. A rebound, that of gold, which is fueled above all by doubts about the advance of inflation, now a global phenomenon as demonstrated this morning by the data arriving from Japan: +3,6% thanks to the push from raw materials, despite the industry Japan, educated by the experience of tsunamis and earthquakes who advised to provide adequate supplies in case of emergency, was the only one to have avoided the shortage of chips.
TAIWAN SENDS 11%, THE MARCH OF SHANGHAI CONTINUES
Asian markets, rather than inflation, are looking at the contagion curve this morning, which, thanks to the Indian variant, is rising again even in the most virtuous countries. Taiwan, so far the most virtuous in containing the advance of Covid-19, has announced an upcoming lockdown. Japanese cities, one after another, are giving up hosting teams of athletes for the next ill-fated Olympics.
The Taiwan Stock Exchange index lost 11%. The Nikkei of Tokyo (-1,4%), the Kospi of Seoul (-0,9%) and the Jakarta Composite (-1%) are down.
Conversely, the Csi 1,7 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen reacted upwards (+300%). In the last five sessions, the rise has exceeded 4%. Meanwhile, pride in Beijing's new space mission is growing. Thursday the second module will be coupled to the spacecraft already in orbit.
CHINA: PRODUCTION RISES, CONSUMPTION BRILLIANT BUT NOT TOO MUCH
The latest data also testify to some setbacks in the recovery of the Chinese economy. Industrial production is still sustained, albeit slowing down (+9,8%, against +14,1% in March). Consumption does not take off as hoped: +17,7%, mid-March (+34,2%) and much less than expected (+24,9%).
Futures on US stock exchanges are down slightly (-0,1%).
Beginning of the week modestly up for raw materials. WTI oil is little moved at 65,4 dollars a barrel, from +0,8% last week. Natural gas futures up 2%. Iron ore rebounded, +1%, from -15% last week.
HERE COME THE MINUTE OF THE FED AND THE EU INFLATION
However, inflation remains at the center of attention on Western markets. Operators, in particular, wonder whether the Fed, beyond the official optimism, is preparing to face the highest price increase since 2008. In this key, the most important clues will come from the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Central Bank, to be published on Wednesday. Institute Vice President Richard Clarida will speak today.
The data on European inflation will also be released on Wednesday. The spotlight is on the euro, which has gained 3,5 points against the dollar since the beginning of April on the wave of improved economic data and the progress of the vaccination campaign. This morning, the single currency's dollar cross rose 0,5% to 1,2135.
ITALY RELEASES THE CURFEW, TOWARDS A NEW SUPPORT DL
In Italy, attention is focused on the launch of the Sostegni bis decree, which should include new refreshments for companies and a postponement of the stop on tax records to the end of June. The decree, with a financial endowment of around 40 billion, will also provide for a contribution bonus in some sectors such as trade and tourism. During today's control room, the government will define a probable new easing of restrictions from May 24, including the postponement of the curfew to 23pm, as requested by the center-right and some regional governors.
The trend in Italian consumer prices in April should be followed. From the USA the Empire Manufacturing index on the industrial activity of the North East of the United States. Even more important are the statistics on the trend of the real estate market and the purchase of financial assets.
Russia's GDP data for the first quarter is out.
GENERALI, CALTAGIRONE STILL ON THE ATTACK
The corporate world is on the move. The board of Generali meets this afternoon in Milan to approve the quarterly report. The bills will be announced at 7h30 tomorrow 18 May.
But still holding court the offensive of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, vice president and second shareholder of Leone, against CEO Philippe Donnet, who, among other things, has just announced that he has taken up Italian citizenship, which says a lot about the desire to prolong his stay in the company, where his mandate will expire in eleven months. But she will have to deal with the warlike Roman tycoon, who revealed last week Republic, sent an email to the councilors to reiterate what he believes is not working in governance. In particular, the manufacturer asks for the creation of an executive committee where a small number of directors would have stronger decision-making power, the introduction of the figure of the general manager with powers assigned by the board itself and a strengthening of the powers of the president. In other words, a reduction in the powers of the CEO and a mortgage on the choices for the next board.
RCS TAGS WITH BLACKSTONE'S REVENGE
Instead, the performance of Rcs Mediagroup and Cairo Communication shares should be followed on the electronic scoreboards of the desks. In particular, the impact on the publisher of the Corriere della Sera (today the coupon of 0,03 euro is due) of the outcome of the arbitration between the publishing house and Blackstone, which established that "there is no evidence" that in the purchase agreement between Blackstone and RCS for the real estate complex of Via Solferino in Milan the directors of the former management of RCS (pre Cairo, ed) "have contributed with their behavior to favor a speculative operation by Blackstone, to the point of staging a fictitious competitive sale procedure".
Nothing forbids, at this point, the US giant to sue the New York court attributing responsibility for the failure to resell the property, with a large capital gain, to RCS. The risk is calculated in the hundreds of millions. Urbano Cairo, however, took precautions by obtaining an indemnity from the board of directors who at the time of him, convinced of victory, had not allocated any amount to the risk fund. Even this may not be appreciated by creditors, Banca Intesa in the lead.
Today, apart from Rcs, Credem's dividends (0,2 euro) are being paid; Cembre (0,9 euros); Cementir Holding (€0,14); MutuiOnline (0,4 euro); Neodecortech (0,09 euros); RcsMediagroup (€0,03) and Ilpra (€0,03 – first tranche).
MADE IN ITALY ACCORDING TO LVMH IS PROSECCO
The awards for Campari's successes continue to pour in. After the news that Aperol spritz will soon be imitated by an Lvmh product, this morning Les Echos (the economic newspaper controlled by Bernard Arnault) goes so far as to judge Prosecco "one of the most important achievements of Made in Italy in the last 15 years which has been imposed as a symbol of the Dolce Vita in New York bars and London restaurants" .
AT&T DISCOVERY: A NEW ANTI-NETFLIX
Great ferment in the media sector: AT&T, which controls Warner Media, Hbo and Cnn, is about to create, together with Discovery, a 150 billion dollar streaming giant, with one of the richest catalogs in the entertainment world. The telephone giant, which had spent 109 billion to enter the sector, thus tries to find a space in a crowded sector where Netflix has 210 million subscribers, ahead of Walt Disney (104) and competitors of the caliber of Apple, Amazon and YouTube ( Google).
On Wall Street, the trend in consumption will hold sway during the week. The quarterly reports from Wal Mart, Home Depot, Target and Macy's department stores are coming.
IPO OATLY, A 10 BILLION DOLLAR DIGITAL MILK
Spotlight on the IPO of Oatly, the debutant who launched vegan milk of exclusive plant origin in a big way, aims for a valuation of ten billion dollars, thanks to testimonials such as Oprah Winfrey and Jay Z. Expected visit this week of President Biden to the plants of an icon company of the US economy: Ford, which has just announced the launch of a policy of heavy investments in batteries. It will be an opportunity to illustrate the White House's plans to deal with the chip crisis.
