The phase of uncertainty on the markets continues. From tonight the new US tariffs on Chinese imports can take effect, while the signing of the agreement between the US and Canada is moving away. Meanwhile, the tension on the emerging markets is rising: the pressure on Argentina and Turkey continues but by now the malaise is general: Indonesia suffers like South Africa. Fear is spreading everywhere about the possible consequences of a further rise in the dollar (+8% since March).
To undermine the mood of Wall Street, although supported by the brilliant performance of the economy, are the political conflicts, increasingly violent in view of the elections. The New York Times publishes an anonymous comment by "a senior administration official" who reveals that in recent months the hypothesis of removing Donald Trump, a "pathological and unreliable liar", from the White House under the article 25 of the Constitution.
In this setting, for now, the stormy atmosphere over Italy has calmed down. And so corporate matches come back to the fore. Last night a note from Vivendi officially launched the Telecom Italia autumn campaign. Thus another front opens up in the match between Italy and France: on one side Vincent Bolloré, on the other, together with Elliott, there is the CDP.
CHINA IN BRAKING WAITING FOR US DUTIES
Weak Asian price lists awaiting US choices on duties. The Chinese Stock Exchanges mark a fall of 0,2% as well as Japan. Hong Kong is worse: -0,5%. Also in Asia, technology stocks such as Samsung Electronics (-1,18%) are trading lower.
Subdued session yesterday for Wall Street. The Dow Jones is flat (+0,09%), the S&P 500 index is down (-0,28%).
The Nasdaq was heavy (-1,19%) on the day of a difficult hearing in the seventh for Jack Dorsey of Twitter (-6,1%) and Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook (-2,3%), in great difficulty on fake news.
The landslide of Jd.Com continues - -10,6%, the Chinese group in the storm after the arrest in the US of the leader of the group (already released) for sexual harassment in Minnesota.
EVEN SOUTH AFRICA UNDER FIRE
The Argentine Peso hit an all-time low earlier this week, not covered by the Turkish Lira crisis. The South African Rand widened its year-to-date loss to -22% as statistics plunged South Africa back into recession.
The emerging crisis is holding back oil: Brent at 77,13 dollars (-14 cents), Wti at 68,58.
SLOW DOWN SAIPEM, THUD OF TENARIS
Closing in the red for Saipem, up well for most of the session, promoted by Morgan Stanley with a target of 6,7 euros, because it believes that the oil services sector has good prospects with the recovery of investments. On the other hand, a sharp drop for Tenaris which dropped 2,97%, despite the positive study on the sector by Morgan Stanley: the stock could be affected by the announcement by the US of a reduction in duties on imports of steel products and aluminum from some countries, including South Korea.
Eni (-0,2%) mandated Bnp Paribas, BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo to organize the placement of a fixed rate bond issue in dollars, from issued in two tranches with a duration of 5-10 years.
Bitcoin plunges from $7.700 to $7 after Goldman Sachs announces postponement of virtual currency ETF launch
HOLDS PLACE OF BUSINESS, THE CITY SUFFERS
European stock futures anticipate a weak start. The lists immediately took the downward path yesterday. The pressure has been growing as the hours went by, also involving the Italian Stock Exchange which, albeit on the fly, failed the third rise in a row. On the macro front, the revisions of the Eurozone services and composite PMIs for August confirmed the modest rebound in activity: the contagion of the Italian crisis is not visible.
Even Milan, after a session conducted with the plus sign, closed in the red -0,09% at 20.581 points. The rest of the Old Continent is in deep red: Frankfurt loses 1,39%; Paris -1,54%; Madrid -0,8%.
Outside the eurozone, London recorded -0,95%, penalized by the rise in the pound following rumors about possible agreements between Germany and the United Kingdom to favor a more rapid agreement on Brexit, even before having defined all the aspects of the complex issue.
EU APPOINTMENTS, ITALY IN DIFFICULTY
Italy's road to maintaining its influence within the European Central Bank is uphill. Various European sources refer to an "isolated" country while key posts are freed up in Frankfurt and investors are wondering about the economic policy of the new government in Rome. According to Reuters, there is a high risk that Italy, following Mario Draghi's passing of the baton next year, will find itself for the first time without its own representatives on the ECB executive committee.
THE GOVERNMENT: IT WILL BE A SOFT MANEUVER
Yesterday was also a positive day for the Italian secondary, supported by the encouraging statements after the government summit on the manoeuvre. At the end of the meeting, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte reiterated that "we are investigating all the details to launch a financial plan that keeps the accounts in order and that allows the country to pursue a full recovery on an economic and social level: ours will be a maneuver in sign of growth in stability”. Today will be held A new meeting on the maneuver will be held at Palazzo Chigi, with Conte, the Minister of Finance Tria, the deputy premiers Salvini and Di Maio and the undersecretary Giorgetti.
THE SPREAD BELOW 250 POINTS, THE TWO-YEAR BELOW 1%
In the wake of these promises, the secondary market experienced a positive session even if the closing was below the highs of the day.
The spread between 250-year BTPs and Bunds fell by 9 basis points for the first time since last August 20, narrowing by almost XNUMX points since the previous closure.
The Italian 2,87-year yield slipped during the day to 3,03% (from 9% at yesterday's close), also in this case to its lowest since XNUMX August.
The rate on two-year maturities fell briefly below the 1,00% threshold (down to 0,98%), still at its lowest level since the beginning of August.
At the end of the session, the Italy/Spain spread tightened by 9 basis points to 158.
THE EX POPULARS TAKE FLIGHT
In parallel with the decline in the spread, the rebound of the banks continued. The sector index rises by 3,25% (+0,5% for the European sector). The former Popolari are leading the race: Ubi Banca +6,31%, Banco Bpm +7,17% and Bper +4,27%. Mediobanca also shines (+3,25%), rewarded by Equita with a buy (target 10,5 euros).
The rally of FinecoBank also continues: +1,4% to 10,79 euros, a new all-time high. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained 26%.
VIVENDI: TELECOM MANAGEMENT "DISASTROUS".
Telecom Italia promises a fiery autumn (-1,45%), which fell to a new low of 51,74 basis points after failing to make a comeback in the morning. Yesterday evening, when the market was closed, Vivendi launched a strong attack to the “disastrous management of the company since Elliott assumed control of the board following the meeting on May 4th. Telecom – reads a note – has since lost about 35% and is now at its lowest level for 5 years, while in the position paper dated April 9, Elliott promised a doubling of the stock price in two years”. The conclusion is that "the new governance is bankruptcy. The spread of rumors, including that of the exit of the CEO, causes malfunctions that harm Telecom's good progress and results".
The reply of the president Fulvio Conti was dry, expressing "profound regret" for the note from Vivendi. The landslide, among other things, was preceded by the release of a report by Exane Paribas (a bank close to Vincent Bolloré) which sets a target price of 0,38 euros for the stock.
IN RED STM AND AUTO. THE MARCH OF JUVENTUS CONTINUES
Stm is also in deep red (-4,63%), in line with the trend of the tech and automotive sector: Ferrari -2,86%, Fiat Chrysler -2,25%, despite a good figure (+10%) of sales in the USA. Brembo also down (-1,93%).
In the rest of the price list, the march of the Juventus share should be noted: +5%, at 1,28 euros. The capitalization of the club rose to 1,3 billion with an increase of 2018% in 66. Since the beginning of July, the value of the stock has practically doubled: the Ronaldo effect works.
