Go ahead, but with caution. The session in Asia starts moderately up, the last one in the first quarter but also on the eve of the VAT increase in Japan. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rose by around half a percentage point thanks to the decline in the yen. All the other Stock Exchanges are up: Hong Kong and Shanghai are looking at Beijing's decisions after Premier Li Kequiang said he was ready to support the declining economy.
The following will also condition the opening of markets in Europe: 1) the outcome of the Paris talks on Ukraine: the USA and Russia have started the first de-escalation tests to avoid economic sanctions; 2) the announced victory of Erdogan in the Turkish elections; 3) the second round of the French municipal elections confirms the growth of abstention and the advance of the Front Nationale which conquers 14 municipalities. The PS, downhill, however, retains Paris.
Today's most relevant economic data concerns inflation both in Italy and at the EU level, highly anticipated after the drop in prices in Spain and Germany that emerged from the weekend's statistics.
Hanging from the ECB. The key event of the week will be the ECB directorate on Thursday, preceded by the expectation of extraordinary interventions made possible, if not probable, by the overtures of the Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann, to European quantitative easing. No less important are two other appointments. The US statistics on new jobs, the Fed's most awaited data, will be released on Friday. Meanwhile, Janet Yellen will speak in Chicago tonight: it will be an opportunity to verify the Fed's intentions on rate hikes.
Tomorrow, however, the Chinese PMI will be announced which, for the first time in 17 months, should close below 50, signaling the risk of a recession. It should be an opportunity to trigger the expected stimulus to the economy promised by Premier Li Kequiang.
BUSINESS PLACE, RECORD STOCK IN THE FIRST QUARTER
Piazza Affari today says goodbye to a record March, thanks above all to the massive purchases arriving from the US but also from Asia, as demonstrated by the landing of the Chinese central bank in Enel and Eni. At the end of the first quarter of 2014, Piazza Affari is in fact more than ever the queen of the stock exchanges. The FtseMib index gained 1,5% on Friday, closing the second consecutive week of gains (+2,5%) and bringing the lead from the beginning of the year to +13,3%. In the same period, the FTSE Mid Cap index rose by 13,5% and the FTSE Star index by 15%. During the quarter, the MSCI World index remained at the same level as at the beginning of the year. The German Dax fell by 1% (+26% in the last week) and the French Cac rose by just 1,9% (+1,8% from Monday to last Friday).
Thus the forecast of future rate increases is starting to make itself felt in the USA: during the week the Dow Jones fell by 0,6%, the S&P stable +0,1%, the Nasdaq down significantly -2,9% on the wave of sales on the most speculated technology stocks. The recovery of some Emerging Countries is noteworthy: In San Paulo the Bovespa rises by 5,5%, 11% in the last two weeks. The Istanbul Stock Exchange is also recovering: +3,1% on Friday, the highest for three months, on the eve of yesterday's elections.
BTP, RAIN OF PURCHASES FROM US AND ASIA FUNDS
Great moment for the government bond markets awaiting the ECB's moves. The 10-year BTP consolidated the gains of recent days, confirming the yield at 3,30% and the spread at 175. The Treasury placed a total of 6,75 billion euro of 5-year BTPs at 1,88% ( absolute record) and 3,29% for ten-year bonds, the lowest since 2005. The bonds of Portugal, Greece and Spain also improved.
The Spanish ten-year bond fell to 3,23%, the Portuguese one to 4,01%. Since the beginning of the year, the flow of capital from US funds to Europe has exceeded 19 billion dollars, according to Merrill Lynch. The placement of the six-year BTP Italia scheduled for mid-month is approaching in a climate of great optimism.
FIAT, TODAY THE LAST ORDINARY AT THE LINGOTTO
The last Fiat ordinary shareholders' meeting is scheduled for today (+2.11% on Friday) in Turin. On the agenda, in addition to the approval of the financial statements of the parent company (the loss of 227 million will be carried forward and no dividend will be paid), the remuneration policy and the renewal for 18 months will also be submitted to the meeting of the shareholders' meeting authorization for the purchase and availability of treasury shares expiring on 9 October.
But it will also be an opportunity to get news in view of the merger between Fiat and Chrysler (which will require an extraordinary shareholders' meeting, the last one, at the Lingotto and, above all, on the business plan that Sergio Marchionne is about to present on 6 May at Detroit, where the plans for Alfa shine, powered by Ferrari-style engines.By the summer, the meetings and shareholders of FCA (the company born from the merger between Fiat and Chrysler) will meet in Amsterdam, the company's registered office.
In the meantime, Marchionne's treasurers have not missed the appointment with the fall in EU rates and the greater appeal of Italy's debt: in the last 12 months, according to JP Morgan, Fiat is in the lead for funding on the Euromarket with an abundant 9 billion dollars. The latest issue was placed at 4,25%, two percentage points less than a year ago. Cnh Industrial +4% and Exor 7,40% were also brilliant during the week.
BANCO POPOLARE, INCREASE UNDERWAY. WITH BLACKROCK
The capital increase of Banco Popolare kicks off this morning +3,90%% in the week after the leap (+6.95%) on Friday ahead of the subsidiary Credito Bergamasco (+5,28% after fixing the exchange rate of the merger into Banco ). The institute will offer ordinary shares in the ratio of 17 new securities for every 18 shares held, at a unit price of 9 euros. The operation will end on April 17, while the rights relating to the capital increase will be listed until April 10. In Saturday's meeting it emerged that BlackRock, already present with stakes exceeding 5% in Banca Intesa, Unicredit and Mps, controls 1,34% of the capital preceded by Goldman Sachs (2,12%).
Four out of ten stocks in the top ten of the Ftse Mib in the last week belong to the banking sector: the index of Italian banks rose by 2,36%. In the lead figure Banca Monte Paschi +8,30%, galvanized by the latest sales of the Foundation which fell from 15 to 12% of the capital. As the capital increase approaches, the institute looks more and more like a public company.
Followed by Banca Intesa +4,50% galvanized by the results. The stock has consolidated its position as the best blue chip since the beginning of 2014, among those making up the Eurostoxx 50 index which brings together the best in the Eurozone: the performance since the beginning of the year is 34%. The year closed with a net loss of 4,55 billion euro due to provisions and write-downs. In the fourth quarter, goodwill was impaired by 5,8 billion euros. Bper +4% also shines.
IPO, TODAY ANIMA IS BACK ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
The asset management sector, which enjoys excellent health (in February the best inflows since 1998), is enriched today with the Anima holding registration. The offer starts this morning and ends on April 10, and concerns 55% of the capital. The sellers are Banca Mps, Banca Popolare di Milano, Lauro Quarantadue SpA (fully controlled by Clessidra SGR) and Prima Holding 2 SpA (owned by Lauro 42, Banca Mps and some managers of the Anima group).
Mps and Bpm will remain shareholders also after the listing, with shares of 9,90% and 14,72% respectively, while Lauro 42 after the listing will have a stake of 8%. The price range runs between 3,5 and 4,5 euros, for a valuation of up to 1,349 billion. Anima, left Piazza Affari in 2009 following the delisting wanted by Bpm,
LUXOTTICA AND PIRELLI SUPERSTAR
Luxottica (+9,6%) best blue chip of the week in Europe on the wave of the agreement with Google to design, produce and distribute glasses conceived with Google Glass technology which incorporates camera, screen and audio in a single object . According to CEO Andrea Guerra, the potential turnover of this business area could rise to ten billion dollars.
Pirelli (+ 6%) after better results than forecasts. After the publication of the 2013 results, Kepler Cheuvreux decided to raise the recommendation to Buy from Hold, bringing the target price to 13 euros from the previous 12 euros.
Telecom Italia (+ 4,70%) in the week. Berenberg raised the recommendation to Buy from the previous Hold. The target price rose to 1 euro from 0,66 euro. Berenberg had not advised buying since October 2011. Giuseppe Recchi, presidential candidate for the Telco list, said he intends to focus on governance, in order to strongly support CEO Marco Patuano as regards strategies. Davide Serra Algebri lined up alongside him.
ENI, COUNTDOWN TO APPOINTMENTS
The countdown has begun for the appointments to the top management of companies owned by the Treasury and the CDP. By 13 April (or rather Friday 11 or Saturday 12) In fact, the Treasury will have to appoint the new top management of Eni for the next three years in view of the meeting convened on 8 May next. The other listed companies have set the date for the meetings after ENI, Terna on 14 May, Enel on 22 May, Finmeccanica has indicated a date between 19 and 30 May.
For these choices there would be a few more days. But it is the ministry's practice to decide and publish all the candidacies for the most important companies together. In the previous round of appointments in the large listed companies, in 2011, the then minister Giulio Tremonti and the former undersecretary Gianni Letta, delegated by Silvio Berlusconi, published the lists for Eni, Enel, Finmeccanica on the same day, April 4th.
In terms of public companies, the presentation of the strategic plan of Enel Green Power stands out, which will be presented on Thursday by the president Luigi Ferraris and by the CEO Francesco Starace.
ANSALDO AND SALINI-IMPREGILO CELEBRATE IN PERU
Market reactions to the 6,6 billion dollar contract for the construction of a second line of the Lima subway won by a consortium of companies including Ansaldo Breda and Sts are expected this morning. Finmeccanica specifies the value of the portion of its two controlled companies: the portion of the contract for Ansaldo Sts amounts to approximately 700 million dollars (510 million euros), while that of Ansaldo Breda is approximately 500 million dollars (364 million of Euro).
Salini Impregilo, on the other hand, has a 26% share in the construction of civil works. The contract has a total value of approximately 9 billion dollars, of which approximately 4,7 for the construction of the works and the remainder for the management of the infrastructure during the 35-year duration of the concession.
