IRAK IS SCARY, ARRE BETWEEN TOKYO AND WALL STREET
BANKS SUFFER, BLACK SHIRT BUSINESS SQUARE
In Iraq there is a fight for control of the most important refinery. The USA, reports The Wall Street Journal, for the first time after the arrival of news from the economies. 40 years have authorized the export of crude oil from US soil in an attempt to curb price tensions ($107,6 a barrel
Geopolitics thus breaks into the stock exchanges, overshadowing the good economic data and the recovery of China.
Asian stock markets are down, including Tolkyo - 0,51%, indifferent to the announcements of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who yesterday launched the "third arrow" of economic stimulus.
Wall Street closes lower: S&P, after setting a new record in the middle of the day, loses 0,64%, Dow Jones -0,7%, Nasdaq -0,42%. Slightly up Hong Kong +0,10%.
New comforting signals are coming from the economy: the consumer confidence index for June stood at 85,2 points (consensus 83,5 points); new home sales in May were 504k (consensus: 440k), the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index in the 20 largest cities in April was up 1,1% on monthly basis and 10,8% annually.
Three Fed Governors (William Dudley, Charles Plosser and John William) echoed yesterday that no change in central bank policy is in sight. Williams, a "dove" from San Francisco, argued that it will take at least two years for the situation to return to "normal".
The sell-off only grazed European markets yesterday. The London Stock Exchange closed in parity, Paris +0,1%, Frankfurt +0,2%
Only Piazza Affari closed in negative territory: in Milan the FtseMib index fell by 0,2%.
CANNITA: SPREADS STILL DOWN, RATES UP
The yield spread between Italian and German government bonds will narrow further even if the absolute level of nominal rates could rise hand in hand with the improvement of the economy, causing an increase in the cost of Italian debt.
This was said by Maria Cannata, head of the public debt department of the Italian Treasury. Speaking in London, Cannata underlined that further efforts will be made to lengthen the average life of the country's public debt. In particular, you added, the Treasury will continue to carry out government bond swap transactions in 2015, although probably in fewer numbers than this year. Since the beginning of 2014, the Italian Treasury has already conducted three government bond swap operations.
Peripheral countries of Europe, concluded Maria Cannata, are still struggling with relatively low credit ratings and hope to soon see a return to “A” ratings. more conservative, who rely heavily on ratings, being in the BBB+ category doesn't help."
Meanwhile, this morning the month-end auctions are starting, with the Ctz as the protagonists, offered for a maximum of 2,5 billion euros, and the 0,707-year BTP-i up to a further billion euros. According to forecasts, the CTZ should confirm the levels reached after the ECB meeting. A bet below the level of the previous historic low of 14,5% marked last March is not excluded. On the demand side, the maturity of XNUMX billion BTP scheduled for next July should create a favorable environment for the success of the operation.
RAIN OF SALES ON BANKS, MPS LANDSLIDE
The weakness of the banking sector continues, accentuated by the forthcoming maturities at the end of the quarter. The sector index falls by 1,8% against the 0,85% of the European stoxx.
The loss of Unicredit was heavy, down by 2,4%. The bank's managing director sold 32.200 shares of the bank for a value of over 211 thousand euros.
Understanding -1,8%.
Banco Popolare fell by 2,3% after yesterday's -2,8%. A group board meeting was held yesterday to decide on a possible postponement of Release, the group's bad bank, which has so far received offers deemed unsatisfactory.
Much more significant was the landslide of MontePaschi -13,5% to 1,87 euros on the second day of exercise of the rights for the 5 billion capital increase. "After the closing of the negotiation of the rights, the title is falling back towards 1,5-1,6 euros, where it was before the start of the increase", underlines Vincenzo Longo, market strategist of IG.
Meanwhile T.Rowe Price Associates, an investment company based in the United States, announced that it holds 2,1% of the institution. T. Rowe Price Associates has $711,4 billion in assets under management.
Among the other banks involved in capital increases, Bper, in contrast, rises by 0,7% (+0,25% rights). Carige lost 3,7% and rights lost 7,5%.
GOLDMAN PROMOTES A2A. IMPROVE ENEL'S TARGET
Goldman Sachs yesterday adjusted its EPS and EBITDA estimates and target prices for European utilities to reflect a higher-than-average sector multiple (15x versus 13,5x) and updated country risk premia.
Among the Bigs, the vote for Edf, Verbund and Enel improves (target revised from 3l.60 to 4,05 but still sell). rise of 0,84%.
Also in evidence is the A2A report card +1,32%, which went from sell to neutral. Analysts overturned the previous judgment (April 2013) which did not bring good luck to investors: since then the share has flown by 59,4% compared to +16,6% of the FTSE World Europe. The change of pace, the report points out, was determined by a significant reduction in the yields of Italian government bonds.
Among the best blue chips there is also Atlantia +1,4%, which has successfully closed a dispute with the French government on the launch of Ecomouv, the digital system for detecting the pollution tax.
TELECOM READY FOR WAR WITH AGCOM
Brilliant Telecom Italia closes with +1,2%. Mediobanca Securities, after a roadshow with the company, highlighted that the group's domestic business remains well supported by investments, with competition that has become less aggressive in the mobile sector.
Meanwhile, CEO Marco Patuano said that the company is ready to appeal if there should be a reduction in the last mile rental rates (so-called unbundling rates) with retroactive effect for the years 2010-2012, a decision by Agcom which could cost the company just over $30 million in lower revenue.
In the meantime, expectations are growing for tomorrow, when both the Telecom and Telco board of directors will meet.
Patuano said that the top management of the company will only take stock of the trend of the business without addressing the issue of the controlling holding company. “We have received communications from Telco on shareholder decisions. The decisions are up to the shareholders”, he clarified referring to the possible dissolution of the holding company. Telco's board of directors has the 2013-2014 financial statements on the agenda. However, for the members of the board it will be an opportunity to take stock of the situation after the Italian shareholders have requested the demerger from the holding company.
MEDIASET-SKY, THE BALL DERBY CONTINUES
Despite the Brazilian disappointments, the football tournament goes on. Today the League should assign the TV rights to Serie A after a long series of mistrusts and counter-trusts between Mediaset +0,1% and Sky.
Il Biscione reiterated that, in the event of the assignment of all rights to Sky, recourse to the Antitrust will be inevitable, Murdoch's company, strengthened by the highest bids, replies that it will monitor compliance with the auction rules but does not exclude, in case of victory, to extend the broadcasting of the programs to third parties. An agreement, at least on the eve, seems far away.
REVIVAL OF SARAS, BITTER DEBUT FOR CERVED
Also worth noting:
– The luxury bounces back, also due to the effect of the coatings. Ferragamo marks an increase of 2,1%, BrunelloCucinelli +2,2%. Tod's also performed well +1,35%. Moncler +0,25%, Luxottica +0,09% and Yoox +0,56%.
– Cerved's debut on Piazza Affari was not lucky: the stock closed at 5,00 euro, down 1,9% compared to a placement price of 5,10 euro. During the day, the prices fell to 4,672 euros. The IPO of the first Italian credit risk analysis group saw an overall demand exceeding 2 times the Global Offer.
– TXT e-Solutions, a leader in software for clothing and luxury companies, is back on track, closing up 5,6%.
– In the spotlight Saras +8%, which returns to 1,05 euro the level from which it collapsed last week when in a single session it dropped 11% after a double rejection: Societe Generale analysts had lowered the recommendation to Sell from Hold, confirming the target at 0,98 euro. In the meantime, UBS has reiterated the Sell judgment, reducing the target to 1,05 euros from 1.
– Astaldi +0,06% deserves attention, after yesterday's approval of the 2013-2018 business plan which appears to be ambitious and achievable. The objectives for 2018 envisage the strengthening of traditional markets and the opening of new foreign areas, a total order backlog growing to over 33 billion, revenues exceeding 4 billion, a net profit of 230 million and a dividend expected with average growth equal to 7%.
