Summer is setting, but the sun remains high on the markets, with positive macroeconomic data, but not so much as to push central banks to accelerate tapering.
The European lists close the first session of September in the high zone, even if not at the top for the day, while on Wall Street (mixed at the start) the Nasdaq upgrade his record level. Oil carries a certain volatility which, after an increase in the morning, changed sign in the afternoon to then partially recover, pending the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and with a higher-than-expected drop in US weekly inventories.
On the day when the Green pass becomes mandatory for many activities, Business Square it rose by 0,66% to 26.181 points, after closing a quarter, June 31st-August 5st, up by about XNUMX%. Today, pharma, utilities and banks are in the spotlight, while the spread it regresses but returns rise. The spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds stops at 107 basis points (-1,56%), with a BTP rate of +0,7%.
In the rest of Europe it is slightly negative Frankfurt -0,09%; they appreciate each other Paris + 1,18% Amsterdam + 0,3% Madrid + 1,65% London +0,43%. In New York, the Nasdaq immediately rose to a record level, while the Dow Jones lost 0,11%. In the bond market, T-bond prices are rising and rates are falling.
The debate on tapering that is taking place on both sides of the Atlantic contributes to influencing prices, thanks to a series of macro data that still needs to be interpreted.
In the US, the appetizer of the important report on employment to be released on Friday is disappointing. Data from the private sector alone in August are in fact lower than expected: 374 jobs have been created against an estimate of 600. The blame would be the increase in cases of Covid-19, due to the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which has held back hiring. Since work is the polar star of the Fd, even more than inflation and given that for Jerome Powell improvements in the labor market are needed before starting the withdrawal of stimuli, the Nasdaq and government bonds are celebrating. The Fed chairman announced in Jackson Hole that the tapering should begin within the year, but he did not specify when and there is a shift between those aiming for an announcement in September and those aiming for the month of November.
Meanwhile, in Europe, in a specular way and in view of the ECB meeting on 9 September, a discussion on tapering has started, with hawks and doves trying to pull the blanket over where they believe it is needed more. Among the significant data we look at are the acceleration of inflation in the euro area (+3%) in August and the expansion of manufacturing, to 61,4 in August from 62,8 in July. Manufacturing is doing better in Italy: the PMI is 60,9, up from 60,3 in July.
Above all, the inflation data provides arguments to Jens Weidman, governor of the German central bank, according to which an expansionary monetary policy is still appropriate, but the ECB should also prepare for the end of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) since the The economy is now booming and inflation is on the rise. The Greek colleague Yannis Stournaras takes the opposite view, calling for caution, given that the trend in wages and unit labor costs, which determine core inflation, do not show the same volatility as the overall measure of inflation.
Meanwhile, the president of the Eurotower, Christine Lagarde, interviewed by Time, observes: "we are emerging from the pandemic with economies that have been stabilized" and that "we will return to pre-pandemic GDP at the end of the year".
On the contrary, in China expectations of state support are increasing, given that manufacturing slows down for the first time since April 2020. The prospect of new aid has led to optimism on the Asian stock exchanges and favored the positive start of European stock markets.
Among the raw materials, oil has changed speed several times. At the moment, the November 2021 Brent future loses 0,85% and trades at around 71,02 dollars a barrel. US oil inventories fell for the 15th time in the past 7,169 weeks last week, and did so more than expected: -425,395 million barrels (to 2,8 million units), versus expectations for a -XNUMX, XNUMX million barrels, according to data released by the Department of Energy.
Metal contracts tend to move downwards, with the exception of silver, while spot gold is flat.
On the foreign exchange market'EUR it appreciates against the dollar, trading in the 1,185 area.
Looking at the rises and falls of Piazza Affari, it stands out among the blue chips in evidence Diasorin +2,72%, to new highs since mid-November 2020. Good Leonardo +2,26%, which "exceeded the technical threshold of 7 euros, which it hadn't seen since mid-August - writes Reuters - and this triggered the hedges on the shares".
Well the utilities: Terna +2,27%; Italgas +1,67%:
Campari +1,92%, also benefiting from the leap of Pernod Ricard in Paris. The French company posted a more-than-expected increase in its full-year operating earnings, thanks to a strong rebound in demand in China and the United States. Still in Paris, on the other hand, the thud of Carrefour was recorded, depressed by the farewell of the king of luxury Bernard Arnault, who sold his 5,7% stake in the company of the supermarket chain.
Banks are positive and led by Unicredit +1,61%, while negotiations on the Monte dei Paschi dossier continue (+0,4%) and, for Il Sole 24 Ore, there could be indications as early as next week on the feasibility of the acquisition.
Meanwhile, Siena, in a note, confirms the progress of work to define the outlines of the operation and announces entry into the data room of Mediocredito Centrale, interested in a selection of bank branches (we are talking about 100-150 branches) and the preparation of a data room on non-performing loans classified as "stage 2" (equal to approximately 15 billion euro) which Amco will enter.
Profit-taking penalizes Interpump -1,33%; Saipem -1%. Weakness for Buzzi -0,93% and Cnh -0,82%.
