Emilia-Romagna, where on January 26 people vote to renew the regional council, is not only the last bastion of the left but it is also Italy's economic locomotive. No region is growing like Emilia-Romagna and it is a pity that the electoral campaign has focused more on the national effects of the vote, which there will certainly be in one sense or another, than on the economic reality of the region and, even more so on the originality of the Emilian Model and on the importance that politics does not derail the locomotive. But to whom is the credit for the Emilian success? Of the companies, which represent the heart of Made in Italy and of the Fourth Capitalism of medium-sized enterprises, or of the Board of Governor Stefano Bonaccini (Pd) who supported my development? FIRSTonline asked one of the most expert industrial economists, Franco Mosconi, a former student of Romano Prodi and now Professor of Economics and Industrial Policy at the University of Parma, who since 2008-9 launched a large field research project on that which he still calls "the metamorphosis of the Emilian model" which has also become a book of the same name. Here is Mosconi's thought on the eve of a highly anticipated vote destined to greatly influence the life of Emilia-Romagna but also to act as a watershed in national politics.
Professor Mosconi, many say that today Emilia-Romagna is the locomotive of Italy. But is it really so? With what numbers will the economy of Emilia-Romagna present itself in the regional elections of 26 January?
“Just last Monday, the Prometeia data for Unioncamere Emilia-Romagna came out, which confirm for 2019 a growth rate of the GDP of this region (0,5%) higher than the national one (0,3%). But, as we know, the year that has just ended was a very difficult year for everyone, given the European context (slowdown in Germany, Brexit) and the international context (trade war). Even more important then, to have the right perspective, is what happened in the previous two years (2017-2018) when Emilia-Romagna grew at a higher average annual rate of between 1,5% and 2%. with Italy nailed to 1% (and even less). And what will happen in the following two years, with the Prometeia-Unioncamere forecast I mentioned earlier: 0,8% in 2020, 1% in 2021. Of course, it's not stratospheric growth even here due to the well-known evils afflicting the economy but confirms Emilia-Romagna's role as the driving force of the country”.
What are the drivers of growth in Emilia-Romagna?
“They are essentially two. First, having been able to preserve and in some ways strengthen the manufacturing base (which is worth 27% of the regional added value). Second, and closely related to the first, the extraordinary propensity to export of manufacturing companies (the export/GDP ratio in Emilia-Romagna is equal to 40%)”.
What are the factors that have made Emilia-Romagna a place of Made in Italy excellence for medium-sized enterprises of the Fourth Capitalism?
"The incessant effort in what the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, in a fine book published with the Mill a few years ago, calls "investments in knowledge": R&D, human capital, ICT".
Does Emilia-Romagna also manage to attract foreign investments?
“Yes, even if there is room for improvement. And what is more striking than the quantity of incoming FDI (flows in recent years and accumulated stock) is their quality, in the sense that very targeted investments have arrived through which large foreign multinational companies have strengthened their core business. The example of Audi-Vk with Lamborghini, first, and then Ducati, is valid for all. But there are many others in mechanics/mechatronics, chemistry, e-commerce, ceramic tiles, biomedical”.
Who deserves the credit for the record growth in the GDP of Emilia-Romagna? To companies or also to the Region?
“To both, taking into account the different room for maneuver: companies are naturally immersed in the open sea of international competition (and they know how to swim very, very well); the region has only the powers of a region with an ordinary statute in the context of Italian "regionalism", and certainly does not have the powers of a German Land where the institutional structure is of the 'federal' type.
What has the Bonaccini Council done to support the development of the regional economy and employment and what should it do if it is confirmed? What are tomorrow's priorities?
“He established the ITS (Higher Technical Institutes), which by shared judgment represent one of the best Italian experiences of post-diploma training parallel to university, modeled precisely on the model of the German Fachschule (“Special training school”). And he set up the Technopolis network. The new frontier is now that of the "Data Valley" centered on Bologna. He also passed a law on the attraction of investments. And it promoted the "Pact for work" signed in 2015 with all the players in economic and social life (here too, after the great crash, unemployment rose to around 9-10%, while today it is at 5,2 %). But inequalities are also on the rise in Emilia-Romagna: fighting them with greater determination must be one of the priorities of the next legislature. Healthcare works very well, as all independent rankings confirm. However, in today's world (and in Emilia-Romagna) it is not enough to have businesses, universities, hospitals - and the list could go on - promoted with full marks, since social exclusion and new forms of poverty are insidious phenomena, which they remove thousands and thousands of people from the normal economic-social dynamic. We need to reach them with new tools of welfare and social inclusion".
How important is the presence of universities and research centers (from Prometeia to Nomisma, just to name a few) of excellence for the development of the region?
"Very very much. I would also add the two large and prestigious Bolognese publishing houses, Il Mulino and Zanichelli, as well as other smaller ones scattered along the Via Emilia”.
Milan is today considered, for its development and for its international openness, the true capital of Italy: what is the relationship between the Milan model and the Emilian model? Collaboration or competition?
“Collaboration, there is no doubt: in fact, we are talking about two models (one more concentrated in the capital city, the other more widespread throughout the territory and polycentric) that share an openness to others. Who believe in open societies. Without the Milan-Bologna-Via Emilia axis, what Italy would it be today?”.
Can the Emilian model be exported to other areas of Italy?
“Good question, but very difficult. There are factors that are difficult to replicate, such as a high "social capital" (which means, among other things, basing relationships on mutual trust) and a marked aptitude for cooperating between the various subjects. On closer inspection, what one could try to export is the consolidated practice of doing together – between public and private – things useful for the progress of the community. All the initiatives I mentioned earlier in favor of the real economy (ITS, etc.) are daughters of this culture”.
How important have the innovative national industrial policies of the last legislature summarized in the Industry 4.0 program been for Emilia-Romagna and how important is the slowdown they have suffered in recent years?
“They have been very important both in an economic sense (the investments made with the hyper- and super-depreciation and the tax credit of the Industry 4.0 Plan), and in a structural sense (the provinces of central Emilia are among the capitals of the “ mechatronics”, which for decades has been able to merge mechanics and electronics). The slowdown of government programs? Well, the Emilia-Romagna quality manufacturing train is moving quickly: let's imagine for a moment what a high-speed train would be if we were able to count on a – I quote – “modern industrial policy”. Yes, the one they have in Germany and which has a time perspective, both for "Industrie 4.0" and for other tools, aimed at 2030".
