Inflation is scary but it doesn't extinguish the seeds of recovery. Both in the East and in the West we are already looking at Christmas, an opportunity for consumption to take revenge after the lockdown season. On the contrary, China has already taken care of opening the dances, although concentrated on the "revision of history", which consecrates once and for all the primacy of Xi, now in Olympus on a par with Mao and Deng. For the occasion, Alibaba wanted to dedicate the day of "Single's day", the largest online shopping event in the world, to the theme of "social cohesion", dear to the president, passing part of the proceeds to the poor and promoting charitable works. The operation was successful: Alibaba made $84,5 billion in sales, breaking the record of $74 billion in 2020. As a result, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index, which groups US-listed Chinese stocks, jumped by 5,1%. Now the US reply is awaited. Forecasts speak of an increase in sales for the end of year holidays between 10 and 12%. More than the dreaded inflation.
EVERGRANDE STARTS AGAIN, WAITING FOR THE XI/BIDEN SUMMIT
Another happy news comes from Hong Kong. Evergrande rises by 11%. The banking authorities, reveals the Financial Times, completed an investigation into the relationship between the firm and Shengjing Bank, noting "potential violations" of the debt thresholds towards a single customer.
Market attention is focused on Monday, when Chinese President Xi will meet virtually with his US counterpart, Joe Biden, to discuss trade and economic recovery from COVID-19.
Stock markets in Asia Pacific were positive, supported by the rise in Chinese technology shares and the rebound in the real estate sector. Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1,2%, South Korea's KOSPI up 1,6%, Sydney's ASX 200 up 1,10%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 0,2%, Shanghai's CSI 300 index and Shenzhen -0,1%.
POSITIVE FUTURE IN USA AND EUROPE
In the US, S&P500 index futures are slightly higher, as are Eurostoxx 50 index futures in Europe following yesterday's finale.
Yesterday, in a session halved for the Veteran Day holiday (bond markets closed), the Dow Jones lost 0,44%. The S&P 500 is flat: +0,05%. NASDAQ +0,52%.
DISNEY THUD, THE ANTI-TESLA SHAKES SPARKS
The fall of Walt Disney (-7,1%) weighed on the Dow after the disappointing data of subscriptions to streaming services.
The fever for Rivian has exploded (+22%). The anti-Tesla in which Amazon controls more than 20% jumped 22%, closing on a new record price of $122,99. In three days of trading, the capitalization reached 107 billion dollars. It is already among the top eight automakers in the world, although it has sold fewer than 200 vehicles. Tesla closed down 0,5%.
THE DOLLAR RUNS, GOLD SLIGHTLY DROP
Gold is slightly down with the quotation at its highest level since June. The Euro-Dollar cross updates the 17-month lows at 1,144. WTI oil is moderately down, at these levels it would end the third negative week in a row.
EU, ITALY LEADS THE RECOVERY
Growth of infections, inflation and inconvenience in the supply chain to the industry, especially that of the car. These are, according to European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, the three thorns that can damage the European recovery which, otherwise, is proceeding better than in other areas of the global economy. Brussels has revised up its forecasts for the current year to 5% against -6,4% in 2020, the year of the pandemic, which will be followed by other good years: +4,3% in 2022, +2,4 % already acquired for 2023. But the real news, no longer a surprise, is that Italy is leading the recovery: +6,2% this year against 2,7% in Germany, rapidly deceleration.
“After the rebound in the first half of 202 – explains the European Union – Italy's real GDP should continue to expand, even if it is encountering some slowdowns in the short term ... Domestic demand, in particular investment spending, should support growth. Pressures on commodity prices are set to push inflation above 2% next year."
BTP, YIELDS RISE. WEAK FUTURE DEMAND
The good indications on the Italian economy (including a modest decrease to 151% of the deficit/GDP ratio) did not prevent a further rise in 0,85-year yields to 0,93 from 118%, thanks to the sharp rise in US inflation . The spread rises to 117 points from XNUMX.
The retail offer of the 12-year Btp Futura continues, which raised just under 350 million euros, with a rather meager overall budget for the first four days: just over 3 billion euros.
MILAN +0,26%. GOLDMAN SACHS PROMOTES THE STOXX 600
Milan rose by 0,26% to 27.633 points, at the end of a session full of quarterly reports. With the exception of Madrid (-0,55%), the other places are also running: Frankfurt +0,11%; Paris+0,2%; Amsterdam +0,21%. Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month price target for the STOXX 600 benchmark index to 530 points from 520 points, saying European corporate results have proved resilient to supply chain disruptions.
LONDON, THE GDP DISAPPOINTS EXPECTATIONS
London +0,62%. UK GDP grew by 1,3% in the last quarter, less than expected by +1,5% and slower than +5,5% in the second quarter, when pandemic restrictions were lifted of Covid. Global supply chain problems hit companies hard, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS). “As the world opens up again, we know there are still challenges to overcome,” commented Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak.
FLY ARCELOR, BOOM OF DELIVERY HERO
Among the sectors in Europe, only Basic Materials, Construction, Banks, Utilities are up. Down the Oil & Gas. ArcelorMittal +4,09%. The world's leading steelmaker posted its "highest since 2008" third-quarter profit at $4,6 billion, after a $261 million loss in the third quarter of 2020, marred by the aftermath of blast furnace shutdowns during the period of the health crisis.
Delivery Hero, one of the world's leading food delivery companies, closed the third quarter with an 89% year-on-year increase in turnover to €1,8 billion. During the period, the company fulfilled an unprecedented number of orders: 791 million, +52% year on year.
Siemens (+4%) closed the fourth quarter of its 2020/2021 fiscal year with a 29% drop in net profit to 1,3 billion, in an industrial context marked by the supply problems affecting the sector, a phenomenon which it should ease next year.
IVECO ON THE BUSINESS PLACE IN JANUARY, CNH TAKES FLIGHT
The performance of Cnh Industrial (+4,37%) shines among the blue chips of Piazza Affari. The subsidiary of Exor (-0,19%) announced that the subsidiary Iveco has published the prospectus for requesting the listing of ordinary shares on Euronext Milan starting from next January 3rd.
PIRELLI RAISES THE TARGETS ON REVENUES AND PROFITS
Pirelli (+0,40%) raised its revenue and cash generation targets for 2021 after closing the third quarter with a profit of 104,6 million (+24,7% compared to Q3 2020). Revenues for the end of the year are now expected between 5,1 and 5,15 billion euros, compared to the previous guidance, improved in August, between 5 and 5,1 billion, with volumes in line with the previous indications at the same time last year. It will decide between options that include M&A deals such as a greater distribution of capital to shareholders once the 1,5x debt-to-EBITDA target is achieved.
NEXI RETURNS TO RUNNING (WAITING FOR SIA)
Nexi also stands out (+4,26%). Growing results propelled the title race. The group closed the first nine months with an ebitda of 762,9 million, an increase of 12,3% compared to the same period last year, while the ebitda margin was 47%.
GENERAL, USEFUL RECORDS AHEAD OF THE PLAN
Salt after The bills also Generali (+0,68%). The company announced that in the first nine months, net income grew by 74% to 2,25 billion euros, better than the consensus at 2,13 billion. It will proceed with the delisting of Cattolica. Next December 15th there will be the presentation of the new business plan. Berenberg raised the target to 23,40 euros, strengthening the Buy.
Banca Generali +1,12%. Money after the quarterly also on Azimut (+0,94%) and Prysmian (+0,3%).
EQUITA AND AKROS CUT INTERPUMP, MEDIASET RUNS
Deep red for Intepump (-7,99%) on which Equita sim reduced the recommendation to hold, while Banca Akros lowered the rating to neutral. Poste Italiane (-1,5%) also fell back despite the excellent results.
On the shields Mediaset (+2,3%) in the wake of the results. Equita underlines that “the advertising market is tonic and the guidance on capex has improved”. The broker increased its consolidated Ebit estimates for the year and its target price by 6%, bringing it to 3,04 euros per share.
LUXURY STILL WEAK, GEOX DOWN. LANDSCAPE DE LONGHI
Recover Moncler: +1,4%. Ferragamo and Moncler are down (-1,7%). Frana De Longhi (-7%) despite accounts in line with expectations: the company confirmed the guidance but several analysts are skeptical.
Geox also down (-1,35%) after closing the first nine months closed the first nine months with 463,5 million in revenues, up 7,8% and recorded a good performance for the current quarter for the comparable sales of direct stores, up 50% on 2020 and 3% on 2019. On December 2, he will present the 2022-24 business plan to the financial community.
TELECOM, THE BOD DOES NOT DECIDE. GUBITOSI IN THE BALANCE
All postponed. The showdown in Telecom Italia postponed to February, when the 2022/24 strategic plan will be discussed, but, he suggests the Republic, “the feeling of many interlocutors close to both Cdp and Vivendi is that the 2022-2024 business plan will not be signed and implemented by Gubitosi. If Vivendi has already revealed its intentions, CDP will express itself with the new industrial plan that CEO Dario Scannapieco will present in a few days”. It is not surprising, given these premises, that the theme of the single network has not even been addressed.
