Chinese stock markets are still shaking after yesterday's 3% plunge, the worst session of the year. Oil rises to new highs since 2015 on the eve of the Vienna summit which should strengthen compliance with production ceilings. But these shadows do not stain a pink painting.
“Economy is booming”, to quote Chris Williamson, the economist who runs the company who, since 1995, measures the health of the real economy through PMI indices based on business purchases. From his observation it emerges that the engine of the real economy is going full steam ahead, the best performance for six and a half years.
UNICREDIT: EUROPEAN GDP TOWARDS 3%
All indicators, from production to consumption, from employment to the recovery of prices, travel at the maximum, to the point that, according to the Unicredit research office, the GDP of the Eurozone in 2017 promises to rise by 3%, guaranteeing a sprint start for next year. Not even the rise of the euro, which climbed back to 1,1850 against the dollar, seems capable of slowing down the race, fueled by the rush of exports which also involves Italian manufacturing.
Italy's extra-EU trade balance is still improving: in October there was a surplus of 4,554 billion euros, 11,2% more than last year. Same script in the USA, seeking confirmation of the newfound confidence of consumers on the long weekend dedicated to shopping, both in malls and, above all, electronically. Donald Trump, in his message to the military on Thanksgiving Day, was as usual explicit: "Guys, don't worry, we are working for you: we will soon cut taxes, the stock market is shooting at its highest".
TOKYO DOWN, MORE LOSSES IN SHANGHAI
Reduced volumes this morning on Asian stock exchanges at the start of a short session for Wall Street which will close its doors in the middle of the day. Tokyo, down by 0,5% in the first part of the session, is starting to close slightly higher: Nikkei index +0,2%. The yen appreciates against the dollar to 111,4. The sales on the Chinese stock market continue, even if today they are less heavy: CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock markets -0,8%, from -3% yesterday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is flat.
OIL LIVE, OPEC EXPANDS ITS NETWORK
This morning Brent oil is down slightly to 63,4 dollars a barrel, yesterday it gained 0,4% on new highs since 2015 All eyes are on the OPEC meeting on November 30th. The list of countries involved in the cut in crude oil production could widen. According to the latest rumors from Bloomberg, OPEC would have succeeded in the far from easy intent of involving other countries in the plan to reduce extraction.
These include Chad, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Argentina, Benin, Bolivia, Congo, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Indonesia, Mauritania, South Africa and Tajikistan could also join. A sure no would instead come from Norway, Brazil, Egypt, Colombia, Cameroon and Niger. But any cartel agreement risks being thwarted by the boom in US shale oil: US production has risen to 9,66 million barrels (+ 15% in one year).
“The USA will, without a shadow of a doubt, be the world's leading producer of crude oil over the next 5 years. They are producing… at half the cost they were two years ago,” says Matt Stanley, of Freight Investor Services in Dubai.
CAO: LESS OIL IN SAIPEM'S FUTURE
At Piazza Affari yesterday Eni -0,39% Tenaris +0,56% and Saipem -0,79%. Credit Suisse reiterated its Underperform recommendation on the latter (it will do worse than the Stock Exchange), adjusting the target price to 2,75 euros from 2,55 euros. A target price well below the last quotation.
During the ceremony for the company's 60th anniversary, CEO Stefano Cao said: "In a scenario of low oil prices for who knows how long, an oil service like ours must look at the business of renewables, such as the construction of wind farms and the dismantling of oil platforms, as well as high-speed rail, such as the 770 km long Moscow-Kazan line”.
EURO ECONOMY AT HIGHEST SINCE 2011, MILAN +0,37%
Euro economy full speed ahead. The 'flash' reading of the composite PMI this month showed a jump to 57,5, the highest since April 2011. “We thought we hit a peak a few months ago, so we're in for a surprise. It appears to have the makings of a broad-based recovery,” said Chris Williamson, an economist at IHS Markit.
Piazza Affari + 0,37% closed with a slight positive margin slightly below 22.400, in a European context conditioned by reduced operations due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA. Paris is doing better (+0,50%).
French business activity grew in November at the fastest pace in six and a half years. Meanwhile, the recent labor reforms have prompted companies to hire staff at the highest level since 2001. Flat London (–0,02%): GDP in the third quarter grew by 0.4%. The worst place is Frankfurt (-0,05%), held back by the growing tensions due to the stalemate of the political situation.
The leader of the CDU in the Bundestag Volker Kauder has asked the social democrats to reconsider or no to the Grosse Koalition. Meanwhile, the economy is going. The final reading for the third quarter indicated that gross domestic product grew by 0,8% quarterly and by 2,8% year-on-year, accelerating from +0,6% quarterly in the period between April and June. Furthermore, shortly after the release of the data, the Ifo institute raised its estimate of economic growth in Germany for 2017 to 2,3% from 1,9%.
ECB, THE HAWKS ASK THAT QE IS NO LONGER TALKED
A reading of the minutes of the last ECB meeting reveals the division between those who want to set a precise deadline for QE and those who intend to keep the door open to a further extension of the purchases, if necessary. As is known, the decision to extend the program until September 2018 (with purchases reduced to 30 billion per month starting next January) has passed, also confirming the possibility of further extending the program if necessary.
What emerged from the report of the meeting therefore seems to signal a division within the central bank's Board and suggests that any proposal to further extend QE would find opposition even if the 2% inflation target is not reached in the next few years.
BTP PIATTI, 5.5 BILLION BOTS ON TUESDAY
The BTPs close a session weakly without great cues, especially in the afternoon, due to the closure of the American market. During the session, the fluctuation of the ten-year BTP rate remained within a handful of cents, between 1,76% and 1,79%; the spread on the Bund closes with a slight widening, but still in sight of the 140 quota. After the buyback operation of around 5,5 billion on Wednesday, the Treasury announced that it will offer 28 billion euros in the auction on Tuesday 5,5 of 6-month Bots, expiring May 31, 2018.
Tomorrow will be the turn of the Btp and Ccteu auctions on Wednesday 29, the last medium-long term to be settled in 2017. Intesa Sanpaolo expects an offer of up to 2 billion five-year and the same 1,5-year Btp, and up to 27 billion Ccteu. The offer on Monday 2 will be limited to Ctz only, for an amount up to XNUMX billion.
FLY TIM. ON DECEMBER 5 THE BOD ON THE NET
The star of the day was Telecom Italy +4,48% at 0.7225, the best blue chip on the list. The saving action +6% is also good. The hypothesis that the sale of a share of the network is brought to the board of directors on December 5 causes the stock to run on the stock market. Furthermore, yesterday's words by CEO Genish, who is ready for a "full collaboration" with the government, also acted as a driving force. Mediobanca Securities (outperform rating, target price at 1,30 euros) notes that "the separation of the network with the sale of a minority stake would be a value-creating option».
Mediobanca analysts have estimated a valuation of 15 billion, explaining that a "newco could easily be set up with debt. Assuming a debt of around 6 billion (3,4 times the net debt/ebitda ratio) and selling a 40% stake, as done with Inwit, the analysts continued, "Telecom would collect around 3,6 billion, visibly reducing its debt".
According to analysts, a second step could be a consolidation with Open Fiber or the entry of public funds into the newco. Positive too Mediaset (+0,66%), which remains around the levels marked after the rumors of a few days ago, which spoke of a short-term agreement with Vivendi which would reduce its stake in the company to approximately 5%.
IT'S RAINING BUYERS FOR ENEL. JP MORGAN PROMOTES STM
To report Enel (+1,5%), which won a tender for renewable energies in Mexico for 700 million dollars. The share returned to push up by 1,5%, reaching 5,40 euros, a step up from the recent highs of the last eight years (5,44 euros). Brokers continue to reward the objectives of the new industrial plan presented this week in London.
Last in order of appearance, Exane confirmed the Outperform recommendation and the target of 5,80 euros. In recent days the optimism of analysts has further strengthened. Out of a panel of 32 experts surveyed by Bloomberg, as many as 23 recommend buying the stock. Nobody selling. Average target 5,67 euros.stm +0,83%. JP Morgan strengthened the Overweight recommendation, raising the target price to 26 euros from 22,50 euros.
RISE IN CARIGE INCREASE, MEDIOBANCA GOES SHOPPING
Among the banks, the Bigs do well: Unicredit+ 0,5% Understanding + 0,2%. Mediobanca (-0,4%) announced the acquisition of Ram Active Investments, a Swiss financial company with 4,3 billion euros of funds under management. The operation eats up 30 basis points at Common Equity Tier 1 level. The title is unchanged.
Monte dei Paschi Bank -1,3%. Total subscriptions to the senior share/bond exchange offer amounted to 83,5%. According to rumors, the Treasury confirmed both the president and the chief executive officer. Banca Carige -3,5%. The capital increase continues. The managing director Paolo Fiorentino has ruled out a new capital increase. Creval + 5%.
YOOX DOWN WAITING FOR BLACK FRIDAY
On the eve of Black Friday they walk in luxury Moncler e Ferragamo (+1,5%). Bucking Ynap (-2,5%).
DEBUT WITH THE TURBO FOR EQUITA
Turbo debut for Equity on the Aim, which rises by more than 5% to close at +2,4%.
Real estate purchases are back. The Senate Budget Commission rejected all the amendments that aimed to modify the rule that extends the tax benefits provided by the PIRs to all real estate companies. And in Piazza Affari the stocks concerned rise: Aedes + 8% Cleansing + 6% Gabetti + 3,5% Stable Goods + 1,5% IGDMore +0,6% and Coima RES + 0,5%.
