The freeze on the US federal budget has already returned later the agreement between Republicans and Democrats. Thus the only note of concern for the mood of the financial markets has vanished, ready to ride the wave of M&A and quarterly results. The extension of the real economy, certified by the update of the World Economic Outlook, as well as the confirmation this morning of the expansive policy of Japan, pending a similar decision from the BCE.
This too favors the rally of Piazza Affari, +9% since the beginning of the year, and of the Madrid Stock Exchange, exalted by the return to Serie A of the Spanish bond rating. Against this backdrop, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will kick off the Davos event this morning.
Tokyo +1,3%, does not lower inflation estimates
Stock Exchange Weather records so beautifully stable on the markets: The Asian Stock Exchanges are about to close sharply higher, regardless of the White House ordinance which imposes duties on washing machines and solar panels, a provision of tonight which penalizes above all Chinese and Korean companies . Tokyo's Nikkei index marks a rise of 1,3% at the end of the session. A small change from the Boj's final statement: for the first time in three years, the central bank has not lowered its inflation estimates.
China's stock markets are up: Hong Kong +1,2%. CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges +0,7%. Seoul +1%. The dollar-yen exchange rate has not moved much. The dollar trades at 1,226 against the euro. Oil trades in Asian markets today at $69,5, up 0,6%.
M&A fever returns to Wall Street
New progress for all US markets: the Dow Jones rises by 0,55%, the S&P 500 -0,81% and the Nasdaq +0,98% do better, driven by the mergers that invested the biotech index (+3,15 %). Also spectacular is the return on the M&A front of American International Group -1,2% the insurance giant that ended up on the verge of bankruptcy in 2009 in the most dramatic moment of the crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The group announced today the acquisition of Validus +44% for 5,5 billion dollars. Prey, is a Bermuda-based reinsurance company.
Subscriber boom, Netflix soars +9%
Halliburton flies on the list +6,4% after the accounts. But the most impressive performance concerns Netflix, which grew by 9% after the formidable growth of the audience on the markets international. Thanks to the success of some serials, in particular The Crown, the streaming leader has reached the figure of 117,6 million subscribers (+9 million, two thirds outside the USA). The damage was modest, 40 million dollars, for the sex scandal that hit Kevin Spacey, the protagonist of House of Cards (suspended). The company will invest $8 billion in new content.
BIOTECH SUPERSTAR, MOLMED RUNS AT PIAZZA AFFARI
At the great ball of mergers and acquisitions, however, pride of place yesterday went to the pharma sector. In fact, two maxi operations worth a total of 20,6 billion dollars have been announced: one in the United States and the other between France and the United States.
- Celgene -2% bought the shares of the subsidiary Juno Therapeutics for 9 billion dollars +27% which it did not yet own. The offering price for the company, which specializes in autoimmune-based cancer therapies, is $87, a 91% premium to Friday's closing prices.
- No less relevant is the purchase by the French Sanofi -4% of Bioverativ +62%, a company specializing in drugs for the treatment of haemophilia for 11,6 billion dollars. The premium paid is 64%.
Bioverativ was spun off just over a year ago from Biogen.
The spotlight on the sector involved Molmed stock +5,79% at Piazza Affari, the main biotech company listed in Italy which recently announced that it had obtained the first national marketing authorization for its product Zalmoxis.
MILAN AND MADRID LEAD THE EUROPEAN PRICE LISTS
Acquisitions and mergers, even more than the Monetary Fund's vision of growth in pink, supported the stock markets of the Old Continent, limiting the negative impact of the rise in the euro and the stalemate on the US federal budget. The German Zew Confidence Index is due out today.
- Once again, one of the best squares is that of Milan. The Ftse Mib index advanced by +0,59%, to 23.890 points, thus improving on the highest levels for 2 and a half years. Since the beginning of 2018, progress has been more than 9%, double that of the rest of the Eurozone.
- At the top of the list is Madrid +1%, thus celebrating the promotion of the country rating to A- by Fitch.
- Paris +0,28 and Frankfurt +0,22% are also on positive ground. In red only London -0,2%.
IMF REVISES GROWTH UPWARDS: +3,9%
The International Monetary Fund has revised its global growth estimates upwards for this and next year, thanks to advanced economies in general and "particularly pronounced growth surprises in Europe and Asia." The Washington institute also cited the tax reform approved before Christmas in the US, whose 'effects on the United States and its trading partners - especially Canada and Mexico - contribute about half of the overall revision of global growth over the next two years ”.
The Fund expects global growth to rise by 2018% for 2019 and 3,9, 0,2% more than the calculations made by the Fund last October for both years. The International Monetary Fund has also raised its growth estimates for Italy for this year and next without however failing to warn of political risks, in view of the elections on 4 March. In the update to the World Economic Outlook, the Fund indicates growth of 1,4% on 2018, against the 1,1% assumed last October, and 1,1% for 2019, from the previous 0,9 %.
THE BONOS RETURN TO SERIE A. THE SPREAD DOWN TO 192
The Italian secondary accelerated in closing, in line with almost all of Europe in the wake of Spain's promotion to Serie A by Fitch.
The Italy-Germany spread closed at 142 basis points, the lowest since last December 13th. The 1,92-year rate was traded at 1,41%, the lowest since the end of last December. The Spanish 1,43-year bond trades at 2005%, from XNUMX% at the closing. The spread with the ten-year Bund is at its lowest since May XNUMX, at levels prior to the debt crisis.
Investors are looking forward to Thursday's European Central Bank meeting. Last week, Reuters reports, three different sources reiterated that the ECB is unlikely to abandon its commitment to continue buying bonds in the short term.
UNICREDIT LEADS THE RACE OF BANKS
The main driving force behind the rise in Piazza Affari continues to be the banks. The FTSE index of Italian banks accelerates up by 1,85% to 12.316 points (against +1,2% of the European index), expanding the gain from the beginning of 2018 to +13%, beyond the highs recorded in 2017. favoring the purchases is the prospect of higher yields in the Eurozone together with the progressive improvement of the macro environment.
In a report dedicated to global equity strategy, Jp Morgan reaffirmed its positive view on financials, which remain top picks among sectors. Mediobanca Securities instead writes that "The various factors that drove up bank shares in 2017 will continue to persist in 2018 as well: the return on capital, reflation, restructuring operations and political factors, in addition to the M&A chapter which could be added". Rising rates and the recovery of the EU's GDP will also play in favor.
THE PLAN UNDERSTANDING ON FEBRUARY 5. RECEIVED OF THE FORMER POPULAR
In its conviction list, Mediobanca confirmed Unicredit +2,3%, adjusting the target price to 23 euros from 21 euros, confirming the Outperform recommendation. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gained 14%. Intesa advances by 1,23%. The new business plan will be approved by the board of directors on 5 February, together with the 2017 accounts, and presented to the market the following day. Confirmed on 27 April the meeting for the go-ahead of the shareholders for last year's accounts.
It was the day of the recovery of the former Popolari, which got underway in the late morning after the publication of the Mediobanca report. Leads the race Banco Bpm +5,46%. Consob communications revealed that Capital Research holds 5,155% of the share capital. Bper Banca +2,69%, Ubi Banca +3,25%.
MARKETS PRO NEWS THE TAKEOVER OFFER ON YOOX
However, it was from the start that gave the impression to the day the announcement of the takeover bid on Yoox net to Porter. The share quickly aligned itself with the offer price, with an increase of 24,5% to 37,7 euros. The controlling shareholder, the giant Richemont (among others Cartiere Montblanc) is offering 38 euros of ordinary shares, 26% more than the closing price on Friday evening. The 2,7 billion euro operation is aimed at delisting.
Richemont has approximately 46% of total capital, but only 24,9% has voting rights. The founder and CEO, Federico Marchetti, has pledged to deliver his 5,7% stake. The offer also gave Ferragamo wings, up 3,5%.
MEDIASET RUNS, AN OFFER FOR MONDODORI FRANCE
On the shields Mediaset +2,7% at 3,30 euros after having scored a maximum of 3,4040 euros (high in the last six months). The Alfa stock was one of the best blue chips due to the Goldman Sachs report which brought the target price to 4,50 euros (from 3,75) with a potential upside of 35% (buy from neutral recommendation). US analysts estimate that Ebit could improve by 10 points in the period 2017-2020. Goldman's estimates are above the consensus average by about 7%.
The brilliant day of the Berlusconi group was completed by the leap of Mondadori +3%: the Reworld Media group is presenting an offer on Mondadori France, which seemed destined to converge into a pole with Lagardère and Marie Claire. Finally, the euphoria infected Retelit +10,8: it is once again topical the reorganization of the sector which could also involve F2i.
BLACK SMOKE FOR FOOTBALL TV RIGHTS. TELECOM STARTS AGAIN
Black smoke for football TV rights. "The League - said Commissioner Tavecchio - resolved in the afternoon not to accept any offer and to proceed with private negotiation with the aim of obtaining no less than the overall minimum price already envisaged in the tender which is equivalent to 1 billion and 50 million for main and optional packages'. Mediaset has presented an offer for the 2018-2021 national pay TV rights of the championship on digital terrestrial, which includes the matches of eight teams, including Juventus, Napoli, Inter, Milan, Lazio, Fiorentina and two low-end clubs.
Telecom Italia also participates in the tender +1,53%, taking the field for matches in internet mode. The M&A effect triggered by the news reported by Le Monde which reveals that Orange and Deutsche Telekom negotiated at length, during the year, on a possible merger, but it seems that the negotiations have closed without any result. The Stoxx telephony index is up 1,5%.
WEAK UTILITIES. APPLE BRAKES STM
Among other blue chips:
– Atlantia, -0,3%, has revised some elements of its offer for Abertis, other improvements could soon be announced. The holding anticipated this intention in a note released on Friday evening: a meeting has been called for February 21st.
– Weak other utilities: Enel -2,32% and Snam -1,47% have not recovered the ex-dividend.
– Bad day for stm down 1,2% to 20,2 euros in the final, in line with the 1% decline of Infineon,
To slow down the sector, protagonist of a very strong rally in 2017, the rumors about the slowdown in sales of the iPhone X.
