The Stock Exchanges confirm the extreme volatility that distinguishes this May dancer. After the violent jolt on Monday, a robust rebound, also favored by various positive macro data. It is the case of Piazza Affari +1,5% at 13, ascent beyond the barrier of 23 points. The other markets, from Frankfurt to Paris, as well as futures on the opening of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are also in turmoil.
Robust stock market rebound: cars are running, super banks
At the EU level, the reaction of the automotive sector is striking, sharply down on Monday (-2,7%) due to the decline in the Chinese market, today among the most dynamic (+2,4%): Renault is racing in Paris +1% which makes cash in South Korea by selling the local subsidiary and Michelin +2,6%. All the big Germans are advancing, from Volkswagen to BMW, Daimler and Continental (+3,6%). Milan is no exception: stellantis it advances by 2,13%, it does even better Pirelli +3,33% which tonight, with the stock market closed, will announce the accounts for the quarter.
Ma the real protagonist of the day it is the credit sector. At 13 pm, the Piazza Affari index is dominated by a four of bank blue chips. Bper +9.6%, Unicredit +5,4%, Bpm +4%, Fineco Bank +3,9%.
Truce on the bond market
The purchases are favored by the lull in the bond market: the yield of the ten-year BTP is stuck at 3,05%, the spread it is at 200. On an industrial level, according to Bank of Italy data, loans to the private sector grew by 2,5% over twelve months (2,0% in the previous month), those to households by 4,0%. Interest rates on mortgages crossed the 2% threshold in March.
Bper is the real star performer of the day: The results for the first quarter of 2022 were overall better than expected thanks, writes Intermonte, “to solid commissions, an excellent contribution from trading and a lower cost of risk”. The net profit was equal to 113 million (against 77) . On the balance sheet front, CET1 ratio at 13.6%. The management communicated that the new business plan will be presented in June.
To support Unicredit is also the buy of Ubs which raised the target to 15,4 (from 14,1). The other brokers are also positive while waiting for the second tranche of the buyback to be approved by the ECB.
In negative territory Saipem -5,66% in view of the capital increase. Instead, Leonardo took profits -4,2%.
The stock market rebound driven by macro data
The rebound was able to count on some positive factors this morning. The boost in the German Zew index which measures German investor morale improved this month to -34 from -41.
No less comforting is the performance of the Bel Paese's economy. Italian industrial production was unchanged in March, closing the first quarter with a drop of 0,9% compared to the previous three months. The figure is better than the expectations which assumed a drop of 1,9%. Adjusted for calendar effects, it rises on the year by 3,0% against estimates of +1,3% (there were 23 calendar working days as in March 2021).
In the afternoon around 16 pm, the speech by the governor of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, is on the agenda, at 19 pm, the vice president of the ECB, Luis De Guindos, could say something on the subject of the fragmentation of the bond markets, i.e. the spreads .
There might be news also on oil. French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune said EU countries could reach an agreement this week on the Commission's proposal to ban all imports of Russian oil. “I think we could conclude a deal this week,” Beaune told LCI television, adding that French President Emmanuel Macron would speak with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban later in the day.
