A follow the UN resolution issued in mid-October after two weeks of harsh armed conflict, even the Municipality of Milan recognizes the Independent Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), which has long been asking for annexation to Armenia, while from the European Community buildings the support for Azerbaijan by Orban's Hungary is not surprising and attempts are being made to define a coordinated response beyond the rhetoric of the religious conflict between Islam and Christianity.
A year ago, the American House of Representatives also recognized the Armenian genocide of 1915 perpetrated by the Turks of the Ottoman Empire and on that occasion also voted for sanctions against Turkey for its armed intervention in northeastern Syria, to the detriment of the Kurdish populations. While the Italian newscasts devote little space to these events at the gates of Europe.
From Belarus to Azerbaijan, passing through Libya: Putin and Erdogan primary actors
Erdogan's recent moves condition with the disputed establishment of the Exclusive Economic Zone, in the Mediterranean Sea also in front of Greece, any development of new gas pipelines that can reach Southern Europe. The Libyan theater for its part underwent a turning point in mid-September with the operational use of Russian fighters since May they had been moved to the area controlled by Khalifa Haftar, which boasts the support of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, France and Russia itself.
While Turkey, with Qatar, is supporting the GNA of Fayez al-Sarraj recognized by the UN, the Government of National Accord, based in Tripoli and obtaining the port of Misrata and the possibility of installing a military base and financed training changes directly from Qatar. Next February it will be ten years since the start of the civil war in Libya (Article by FIRSTonline on Erdogan's aims). In the agreement between the parties signed in August Italy withdrew joining the European protests for Turkish interference in the Mediterranean. UN negotiations are underway in Tunisia which will continue until November.
And if Putin is active on several fronts, so much so as to supply India with military hardware to support the conflict on the Himalayan border with China, it was enough to declare his support for the newly elected Belarusian President Lukashenko to bury any hope of the Belarusian people who poured into the squares to protest against electoral fraud for a coordinated European intervention of sanctions and measures aimed at containing the repressive action against the demonstrators. And to ensure a full guarantee of the rights of citizens who have been arrested en masse, from journalists to university students in a "film" already seen in the aftermath of the Gezi Park protests in Istanbul (see the article on Belarus).
Even if the reaction in the EU meetings in mid-August had been immediate in words in condemning the clashes and in the fail to recognize the election result, only with the Extraordinary European Council of 1 and 2 October were measures such as bans on mobility in the EU and the freezing of assets for 40 people accused of perpetrating intimidation and repression of the opposition and unarmed citizens, as well as sanctions and recognition of the right to new democratic elections which will also see an economic support plan from the European Commission aimed at a Belarusian, which you will find in a democratic electoral session and monitored by international observers. In contrast, Russia is not evaluating an intervention like in Crimea but has already allocated 1,5 billion US dollars to strengthen the country's economy and security, beating the Europeans in time.
For the Belarusian question the commercial interests of France, Germany and Italy are clear and also the attempt to keep an open diplomatic channel with Lukashenko, and also in the case of the clash between Azeris and Armenians of Nagorno Karabakh, commercial interests are paramount towards Azerbaijan. However, the matter is complicated by Turkish interference, which has gone so far as to transport Syrian mercenaries to the area by car. The Turkish expansionist strategy, which seems to have encouraged Azerbaijan to attack the disputed region, guaranteeing the support of Syrian jihadist militiamen, has given an unexpected escalation to the ongoing clash.
The Turks also defend the Azeri oil supplies which cross the Georgian area up to Turkey, thanks to the so-called BTC Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Putin "took a break for reflection" because managing the Turkish boarding in Syria was one thing, justifying the surprise Turkish move has very different diplomatic contours with the EU, and regardless of the energy agreements in force on both sides.
now a humanitarian truce is in place. A truce that will hopefully hold up after the failure of the one signed on October 10 between the governments of the two neighboring states, and which despite the efforts made by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, was immediately violated by the launch of missiles and drones. The EU position, and a possible European Council decision in this case is complicated by recent bipartisan agreements which guarantee both Azerbaijan and Armenian local autonomous claims but without any firm points.
Conclusions towards le eleU.S. tions
The Achilles' heel of the more accredited of the two contenders for the US elections is foreign policy, also with reference to the intrinsic weaknesses of the legacy left by the Obama Administration. It is undeniable that Trump, taking refuge in open protectionism, then politically justified due to the worsening of the American economic situation, has nonetheless achieved important diplomatic agreements within the Middle East framework, such as the recent “Abraham Accords” Peace Treaty.
On the other hand, if Biden wins, he will find himself managing the burning Iranian dossier, in a moment of boarding of Russia and Türkiye from the Mediterranean to Central Asia. Convincing Putin to disengage from North Africa to stem missile threats to NATO's southern command, however, will be a difficult undertaking.
Biden's statements against Trump's support for Saudi Arabia in the war with Yemen expose him to rebalance relations at least with his usual partners: such as Japan and the European Union, and therefore to give priority to an aspect on which it seems little inclined or interventionist.
With the United States on standby for presidential elections, the European Union is doing what it can to deal consistently the new geopolitical threats that distract it from the Green New Deal. And China has multiplied its research and development expenditure tenfold in just a few years, consolidating its position both on the African continent and with its Asian partners gathered in the AIIB, the Asian Investment Bank for Infrastructure. The world has definitively changed its geopolitical order, because COVID and the pandemic emergency can do this too.
